Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[apocalypse]

How much you think we could get up here AV? We had 140mm only 2 weeks ago, and apparently there is already some flooding around Wagga. Not sure if from any creeks though or just local flooding in town. Am up to 11.1mm since this morning.

[thunderhead]

Seems our ageing and decrepit urban rail system can't handle too much rain.
According to a recent tweet from Metro Trains, "Citybound Pakenham, Cranbourne, Frankston and Sandringham trains are not running via the City Loop" account storm damage.

[I_Love_Storms]

Feb 2005 BTW, this could be the biggest thread so far for the forum I reckon.

Things are just looking better and better for the state now in terms of the severity of the system, not too sure if it is good for insurers etc.

[Onetahuti]

Amazing contrast over the Metro area, plenty in the west very little in the east. Laverton up to 28mm's now but less than 3mm's here. Scoresby only on 1mm.

Up to 15mm here on the weather station since 9am, 3.5mm prior

[Leasy]

We're up to 12.7mm and climbing - non stop heavy soaking rain - very nice!

[Blackee]

ILS, fair way from beating the Labor Day Weekend event
14mm so far, including 11mm since 9am (really since 3pm)

[johnno]

28mm now, here loving how the Western suburbs are doing extremely well for once looks like were all in the same boat pardon the pun this side of town at the moment

Thanks Wes & Andrew for the info

[Karl Lijnders]

AWF Update 4pm

Significant and widespread heavy rain is now underway over all C and NE VIC with embedded thunderstorms, flash flooding and river flooding developing. Widespread 30mm falls are occurring as this rain area drops up to 15mm/hr+ in spots.

Concern over the coming hour is the region from Melbourne CBD through to Cowes eastwards, along a slow moving windshift. Rainfall rates of 70-100mm/hr likely to occur over a period of 10-20 minutes as a line moves NE through the region turning winds SWly. Already some areas have had 10-15mm in half an hour.

Flash flooding is likely so stay off the roads if necessary.

Rain is going to drop back a touch over W suburbs over the coming hour or so ahead of another substantial burst with local thunder after 5pm.

Winds should increase over southern areas overnight with sustained winds of 90kmh likely about elevated and exposed coastal areas as this low pressure system deepens.

Melbourne Metropolitan Forecast for the Hours of 4-6pm

Saturday: Rain, locally heavy with possible thunder and flooding. Light winds shifting SW throughout.

Sunday: Rain locally heavy easing during the evening. SW winds strong at first.

Stay tuned to warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic

Next Update at 5pm

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[I_Love_Storms]

Looks very dark out to my west, torrential rain is on the cards in a minute.

Edit: Yep, torrential it is.

[Rhino]

Interesting line of rain near Ballarat moving west-east while all the other rain is moving SSE. Don't know what is causing this?

20mm here

Rhino.

[Blackee]

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the Alpine Areas, North Central, Northern Country, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts
Issued at 3:53 pm EDT on Saturday 30 October 2010.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system and associated trough over Victoria will contract southeastwards during Sunday. A low pressure centre is expected to form in central Bass Strait early Sunday before weakening.

Damaging winds averaging 60-70 km/h with peak gusts around 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Alpine Areas forecast district.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the Northern Country, North Central, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts and parts of the Alpine Areas forecast district.

Highest rainfalls since 9am include 79mm at Mt Buffalo Chalet and 53 mm at Mt Macedon.

[ShaneEEEE]

AWF Update 4pm

Significant and widespread heavy rain is now underway over all C and NE VIC with embedded thunderstorms, flash flooding and river flooding developing.

Sorry but I have to ask. I note you keep mentioned that thunderstorms are underway or occuring...yet there is no detected storms anywhere in Victoria. Do you know something everyone else does not??

I realise the tracker won't pick up weak in cloud stuff, but surely there would be some evidence if there were storms occuring?

[I_Love_Storms]

AWF Update 4pm

Significant and widespread heavy rain is now underway over all C and NE VIC with embedded thunderstorms, flash flooding and river flooding developing.

Sorry but I have to ask. I note you keep mentioned that thunderstorms are underway or occuring...yet there is no detected storms anywhere in Victoria. Do you know something everyone else does not??

I realise the tracker won't pick up weak in cloud stuff, but surely there would be some evidence if there were storms occuring?

Thunderstorms that are not lightning active (yet). Some very very heavy rain in some of these cells - that is what he is referring to.

[Anthony Violi]

How much you think we could get up here AV? We had 140mm only 2 weeks ago, and apparently there is already some flooding around Wagga. Not sure if from any creeks though or just local flooding in town. Am up to 11.1mm since this morning.

All comes down to positioning of the band as it tilts before the wrap...will be close to the real heavy stuff, hard to put a figure on it.

[ShaneEEEE]

AWF Update 4pm

Significant and widespread heavy rain is now underway over all C and NE VIC with embedded thunderstorms, flash flooding and river flooding developing.

Sorry but I have to ask. I note you keep mentioned that thunderstorms are underway or occuring...yet there is no detected storms anywhere in Victoria. Do you know something everyone else does not??

I realise the tracker won't pick up weak in cloud stuff, but surely there would be some evidence if there were storms occuring?

Thunderstorms that are not lightning active (yet). Some very very heavy rain in some of these cells - that is what he is referring to.

A thunderstorm is not a thunderstorm until it produces lightning

[johnno]

Just head the heaviest rain of the day here 6mm in 10 mins!! Wind gone from W/WSW to SSW to Southerly now but still fairly light. Up to 34mm for the system wooohoooooo

[Meso]

AWF Update 4pm

Significant and widespread heavy rain is now underway over all C and NE VIC with embedded thunderstorms, flash flooding and river flooding developing.

Sorry but I have to ask. I note you keep mentioned that thunderstorms are underway or occuring...yet there is no detected storms anywhere in Victoria. Do you know something everyone else does not??

I realise the tracker won't pick up weak in cloud stuff, but surely there would be some evidence if there were storms occuring?

Thunderstorms that are not lightning active (yet). Some very very heavy rain in some of these cells - that is what he is referring to.

Just because there is very heavy rain falling doesn't necessarily mean it's coming from a thunderstorm. Without lightning being detected I don't know how you could possibly tell if there is technically thunderstorms amongst it all. Certainly can't decipher much from the blurry mess that the satellite is atm either.

[I_Love_Storms]

Haha, well using the definition loosely I guess. They are really rainstorms, but it's not really a terminology used around here very much.

[johnno]

Rain near Ballarat heading East, rain near Benalla and Shepp heading SW and most of the other rain is heading S or SSE What a dymanic system! Gotta love these days!

[johnno]

Wow Mt.Macedon up to 55-56mm for the event! Incredbile! And alot more to come keep an eye on those rivers and creeks up there guys if you can