Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[norfolk]

It will be nice to have some summer sunshine!!

Yes there is summer sunshine today!!!!

[HarleyB]

From the extended GFS last night, it has disappeared this morning though. Oh well, we'll have to see what pans out I guess

[Karl Lijnders]

From the newer thread started by Peter
------------------

by Didjman » Sun Jan 23, 2011 9:11 am

Hi all, I know some people on here have suggested the possibility of another big rain event for Vic for the end of the month. GFS is showing something for around the weekend 5/6th Feb.
Thoughts anyone??

Peter

-------------------------------

by Meso » Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:49 am

Nothing really to add sorry, Peter. But, I'd like to know where can I view the extended GFS run? BSCH only does a week out and WZ without a membership is pretty basic.

---------------------------------

by I_Love_Storms » Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:59 am

Models aren't showing anything over the next week or so and I wouldn't read too much into the long range forecasts.

Tropical lows/Cyclones are starting to fire off both the NW and NE coastlines and I know models get very jumpy when cyclones come into the picture.

I would keep an eye on the models over the next few days as the predicted paths of these systems will likely chop and change a lot. If the remnants of these cyclones get dragged down here this will be our next big event. At this stage, the remnants are progged to get dragged either side of us leaving us with hot dry air from the interior - extremely similar to Jan/Feb 2009 IMO, which would be very unpleasant...however IMO any hot dry spell would be short lived as eventually the remnants of a tropical system are destined to hit us head on.

----------------------------------------

by Didjman » Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:20 pm

Meso wrote:
But, I'd like to know where can I view the extended GFS run?

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... &domain=AU

Peter

----------------------------------------


by I_Love_Storms » Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:42 pm

God help SE QLD if that long-term GFS forecast is right! The forecast for Feb 6 is for 200-300mm widespread in the 24 hour period.

---------------------------------------

by crikey » Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:51 pm

Just observed a wind change in dunolly central vic. .2.00pm Monday 21st Feb We now have some firm , easterlies ,southerlies.and the occassional westerly
Trying to check thiongs out on BOM synoptic chart
When checking the BOM synoptic chart.. of course the data is now 13 hrs behind time.and they often don't update until about 6.00pm tonight.

There is a strong anticlockwise rotation of jetstream air in the southern seas of WA travelling east. and another strong anticlockwise jetstream above this in central Australia Time stamp 18GMT yesterday feb 20
I have noticed that a low tends to develop where this anti-clockwise upper air rotation occurs. An interesting and challenging pattern in the jetstream analysis
Of course the jetstream map is also very behind in updating and is now 18 hours late
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... .html?MR=1
How difficult to predict the timing of changes when the data is so old..This morning we had clear skies and one hour later a large cloud mass swamped the skies from the south.
Things happen quickly and this old or yesterdays data is inadequate. weather can change very quickly.
I suspect that low and cold front is already near SA. Might go and check it out on satellite and stormtracker they are usually a little more up to date .
EDIT: stormtracker is the only up to date info satellite is current for 1.30 am.
Wind direction on stormtracker is the only clue to how far east the high has travailed by observing the wind directions
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/stormtracker.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
So much for the stable high. According to the satellite thepolar jetstreams have taken out cyclone dianne and scattered it from WA to VIC
hence all the cloud cover.
A low and cold front are approaching.somewhere between WA and SA?
so much for a strong high which traditionally is said to bring fine stable weather.!

----------------------------------

by Supercellimpact » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:12 pm

Yeah earlyer in the morning it looked like clearing but then the cloud came over again and even got a brief shower, so high doesn't always mean clear dry weather.

------------------------------------------------

[Karl Lijnders]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

A very loose look at the next 5 weeks of weather.

Showing a very wet March with a nice series of cold fronts and cold air coming through mid month around Labour Day weekend and then some nice low pressure systems at the start and end of the month.

Plenty to look forward too.

Enjoy the sun and warmth this weekend.

[HarleyB]

I will guess 147mm for us here in March! Had 118mm in Jan and 128mm so far Feb with maybe 1 or 2 more mm to come right at the tailend.

[Karl Lijnders]

Will be setting up another competition this week for March Rainfall in Melbourne. Stay tuned!!!

[Dc449]

It better not rain during the Airshow.

[WaterBaby]

Hi all!
We've had some (slighty overexcited maybe) locals telling my FIL that we are expecting 14 inches of rain in one weekend in March. Understandably after having water through the business twice sine Dec, he's concerned and asking me what I know about it. As far as I'm aware that sort of rainfall has not been forecast and would be unable to be forecast very accurately until a couple of days before?? Can anyone help me allay his fears?
They are only just now getting a new floor for the busniess after the damage from the Dec flooding.

TIA

[droughtbreaker]

If we are talking scientifically then there are no rain events on the horizon whatsoever, aside from some showers and possible storms either this weekend of early next week. It is 100% impossible to predict individual weather systems and events more than a week out, let alone specific days over the course of the following month.

[eegs]

Aw come on DB. What about the highly regarded Elders 28 day district forecast!

[Karl Lijnders]

I can see rain events on the horizon. Science told me so

[Anthony Violi]

I can see floods, trees uprooted and mayhem about to unfold in the next 8 weeks...we are about to be brutally assaulted.

[Petros]

... but nothing in Vic past 4-8mm in the next 6-8 days imo.

How about Darwin the past 2 weeks (and future one week)!!! , its turned into a cyclone spawning machine! (but the damned thing spins them out with too much SW'ly hurl for us... and times them for when we have a high pressure system due to arrive when the westerly moisture would otherwise be useful for Vic.

[Meso]

I can see floods, trees uprooted and mayhem about to unfold in the next 8 weeks...we are about to be brutally assaulted.

AV, you tend to make a lot of these extreme predictions and are quite often proven right. So, I look forward to seeing what unfolds over the next 8 weeks.

[Petros]

I can see floods, trees uprooted and mayhem about to unfold in the next 8 weeks...we are about to be brutally assaulted.

AV, you tend to make a lot of these extreme predictions and are quite often proven right. So, I look forward to seeing what unfolds over the next 8 weeks.[/quote][/quote]

Yep - I for one have long since given up on picking on AV's predictions for the same reason. Cant say I always agree with the methodology, (or dont have the required nous), but AV has the runs on the board for this La Nina event no doubt imo.

I have an un-scientific "feeling" that a very big flood is soon (3-8 weeks time) to occur on the Latrobe, Thompson and McAllister water catchments - this is probably AV's "fault" .

[edit] ..... mods, we arent allowed to "triple" quote - why not? As you can see many of us make a botch of rubbing out the "3rd" quote ([quote =....) when forced to after doing all our typing.

Better still can the software stop us when we TRY a triple quote rather than surprise us after a heap of effort typing out our posts?

[HarleyB]

Personally I think the very wet weather could continue right up to July or so. I have a gut feeling about all the West Gippsland catchments flooding in either the last week of May or first 2 weeks in June. Really will have to wait and see what happens though.

Yep, I agree that AV has been incredibly good with his predictions. Will have to keep our heads up until he says otherwise. LOL

[Meso]

mods, we arent allowed to "triple" quote - why not? As you can see many of us make a botch of rubbing out the "3rd" quote ([quote =....) when forced to after doing all our typing

Pretty sure part of problem is the new system which adds date and time to quotes (which I believe you suggested ). It makes use of two sets of quote tags. So you can basically only quote one post, as quoting two would require 4 sets of tags, putting you over the limit.

The second set of tags is actually irrelevant btw, mods. You can basically get the same result using just the one...

mods, we arent allowed to "triple" quote - why not? As you can see many of us make a botch of rubbing out the "3rd" quote ([quote =....) when forced to after doing all our typing

^ one set of quote tags used. Wouldn't be too hard to adjust the code for that.

[daviescr]

Thanks for flagging this chaps, it's noted and will be 'repaired' soon!

Chris

[Petros]

{edit - "quote"} Pretty sure part of problem is the new system which adds date and time to quotes (which I believe you suggested ). It makes use of two sets of quote tags. So you can basically only quote one post, as quoting two would require 4 sets of tags, putting you over the limit.

The second set of tags is actually irrelevant btw, mods. You can basically get the same result using just the one...

mods, we arent allowed to "triple" quote - why not? As you can see many of us make a botch of rubbing out the "3rd" quote ([quote =....) when forced to after doing all our typing

^ one set of quote tags used. Wouldn't be too hard to adjust the code for that.[/quote][/quote]

You are a guru Meso! -- Damn caught up AGAIN in my (self induced!!!!) triple quote bullsup. I have a mate called "Snake" who I must be starting to emulate, ..... Snake could pick a hole in any software application leaving the programmers thinking "now why in the hell would ANYONE do THAT!???".

[Anthony Violi]

quote="Anthony Violi"]I can see floods, trees uprooted and mayhem about to unfold in the next 8 weeks...we are about to be brutally assaulted.[/quote][/quote]

AV, you tend to make a lot of these extreme predictions and are quite often proven right. So, I look forward to seeing what unfolds over the next 8 weeks.[/quote][/quote]

Yep - I for one have long since given up on picking on AV's predictions for the same reason. Cant say I always agree with the methodology, (or dont have the required nous), but AV has the runs on the board for this La Nina event no doubt imo.

I have an un-scientific "feeling" that a very big flood is soon (3-8 weeks time) to occur on the Latrobe, Thompson and McAllister water catchments - this is probably AV's "fault" .


Just for the record, La Nina only played about 10% of my decision making. All La Nina does is increase moisture over the country from the Pacific. You still need a trigger, and with the cooling of the Earth ever so slightly since 2002, despite the crap that GISS says, upper troughs are now stronger and more frequent. The last 12 months are living proof of that.

It all started back in November 2008, to an event i refer to as the lightning in the fog morning, 10 hours after the cool change we had an eruption of mass proportion descend on us at 5am and we were shrouded in low cloud and fog, and got blitzed with thunderstorms for a good 6 hours due to a sharpening upper trough. All whilst being fogged in, that made me sit up and take notice.

That to me signaled the changing of the guard, and from then on we had a very hot 2 months breaking records, and then a fairly decent 10 months or so of average to slightly above average rainfall, until the Nov 2009 heatwave.

A couple of months from there, JAn 2010, something changed. I dont need to data, its a feeling i get when i step outside. You just know the ball game has changed. Maybe it was the 6 degree minimums we had first few days last year, but i sensed what was coming. And we all know what happened March 6, and has happened since. We have been assaulted beyond belief, and not just Victoria. Conditions have been ultimate.

But without giving away all the secrets, reading of the play is important. Thats why i look at models most days and bring up my breakfast. Because i know that it will change, just like this Saturday did as i suggested 4 days ago. Everytime we have had a lull this summer we have been obliterated. Systems have had time to load up with 14 days break and then demolish us, thats why its setting up now as we speak, this time though its a seasonal set up change coming, and it will be violent. Remember, not much cold air from the South has been involved yet with all our rainfall, troughs have moved down from the interior or tropics.

I sense we are setting up for a huge cut off Low ala Feb 2005..which is not easy as the planets need to aligm, but somethings brewing, and the models will start to jump all over it in the next few days.

And Yes Petros, Gippsland and Perth will be 2 areas i expect to cop a pounding this year.