From the newer thread started by Peter
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by Didjman » Sun Jan 23, 2011 9:11 am
Hi all, I know some people on here have suggested the possibility of another big rain event for Vic for the end of the month. GFS is showing something for around the weekend 5/6th Feb.
Thoughts anyone??
Peter
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by Meso » Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:49 am
Nothing really to add sorry, Peter. But, I'd like to know where can I view the extended GFS run? BSCH only does a week out and WZ without a membership is pretty basic.
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by I_Love_Storms » Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:59 am
Models aren't showing anything over the next week or so and I wouldn't read too much into the long range forecasts.
Tropical lows/Cyclones are starting to fire off both the NW and NE coastlines and I know models get very jumpy when cyclones come into the picture.
I would keep an eye on the models over the next few days as the predicted paths of these systems will likely chop and change a lot. If the remnants of these cyclones get dragged down here this will be our next big event. At this stage, the remnants are progged to get dragged either side of us leaving us with hot dry air from the interior - extremely similar to Jan/Feb 2009 IMO, which would be very unpleasant...however IMO any hot dry spell would be short lived as eventually the remnants of a tropical system are destined to hit us head on.
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by Didjman » Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:20 pm
Meso wrote:
But, I'd like to know where can I view the extended GFS run?
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... &domain=AU
Peter
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by I_Love_Storms » Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:42 pm
God help SE QLD if that long-term GFS forecast is right! The forecast for Feb 6 is for 200-300mm widespread in the 24 hour period.
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by crikey » Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:51 pm
Just observed a wind change in dunolly central vic. .2.00pm Monday 21st Feb We now have some firm , easterlies ,southerlies.and the occassional westerly
Trying to check thiongs out on BOM synoptic chart
When checking the BOM synoptic chart.. of course the data is now 13 hrs behind time.and they often don't update until about 6.00pm tonight.
There is a strong anticlockwise rotation of jetstream air in the southern seas of WA travelling east. and another strong anticlockwise jetstream above this in central Australia Time stamp 18GMT yesterday feb 20
I have noticed that a low tends to develop where this anti-clockwise upper air rotation occurs. An interesting and challenging pattern in the jetstream analysis
Of course the jetstream map is also very behind in updating and is now 18 hours late
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... .html?MR=1
How difficult to predict the timing of changes when the data is so old..This morning we had clear skies and one hour later a large cloud mass swamped the skies from the south.
Things happen quickly and this old or yesterdays data is inadequate. weather can change very quickly.
I suspect that low and cold front is already near SA. Might go and check it out on satellite and stormtracker they are usually a little more up to date .
EDIT: stormtracker is the only up to date info satellite is current for 1.30 am.
Wind direction on stormtracker is the only clue to how far east the high has travailed by observing the wind directions
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/stormtracker.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
So much for the stable high. According to the satellite thepolar jetstreams have taken out cyclone dianne and scattered it from WA to VIC
hence all the cloud cover.
A low and cold front are approaching.somewhere between WA and SA?
so much for a strong high which traditionally is said to bring fine stable weather.!
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by Supercellimpact » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:12 pm
Yeah earlyer in the morning it looked like clearing but then the cloud came over again and even got a brief shower, so high doesn't always mean clear dry weather.
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