Victoria: Rain event - 16th-20th Dec 2011

[aussiestormfreak]

Models, charts and forecasts are all over the place with this system, hopefully the picture will become clearer by Friday... and hopefully we be in for some more amazing summer storm activity

[johnno]

JMA's turn this morning to linger the low over us... ACCESS still onboard... UK has slowly pushed it south but EC has it further North& East Saturday night (better for us better upslide for us)

JMA http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

JMA http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[crikey]

The wind forecast map indicates a wind change and front at around 4pm on Sunday on a north/south alignment on the SA /VIC border
as indicated by the red line on the wind map below. This wind model has the low centred in the s/west of the state in Bass strait.
It indicates wind change at Melbourne longitude at Monday 10am . So that indicates a slow moving system taking 18 hrs to get from border to central
The wind map then reckons the trough/low remains in the east of the state on Monday and into Tuesday morning

As Johnno has said, some models like ACCESS have it further north in the n/west of the state on Sunday 4pm ( 1001 hpascals)and ACCESS has the low centering over the center of the state and Melbourne and metropolitan on the Monday .about 1004 hpascals
The ultimate position of the low could affect predicted rainfall considerably.
Thinking the best falls could follow the center of the low .
So if was betting on wind map scenario .. Better falls in south of the state and the eastern quadrant.?. However
Still a few days out so look forward to see if wind map changes its mind in the coming days

[Rhino]

BOM have added rain areas to the forecasts now for sun so at least that's looking more respectable. Latest GFS going for big falls again. Interesting times.

Rhino.

[crikey]

Wednesday night news
Livinia's ch 9 weather reporter suggested best falls .at...50mm for the North west corner of the state( Mallee)
Jane Bunn 'win news' weather reporter going for best falls ...at...up to 20-30mm for the wimmera

I would assume they are following models that have the low coming in from the n/west?

[Anthony Violi]

Interesting scenario playing out, with EC the outlier, and in my opinion more wrong than right.

Been super busy in the lead up till Xmas, but still keeping an eye on things.

Cant see any reason why 50mm wont be the minimum fall, even if EC is right, on Sunday in clear air with DPs of 22 could get very ugly.

Northern slopes as GFS suggests tonight should easily get over 100mm and flood all the rivers again. But the main difference is that the airmass doesnt change after this system for at least a fortnight. Which spells danger and a very active period coming up.

GFS has flirted with a monster cold pool over WA for week 2, tonight it has reappeared in the form of a Cat 2 cyclone. That wont happen but is indicative of what will occur when that interacts with all this tropical air lingering over us for the next 10 days or so.

[crikey]

THe BOM ACCESS Interactive weather simulation
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... u&model=CG" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
for relative humidity
is certainly painting a picture widespread 100% Rel Humidity for large parts of the state from sunday arvo right through to Monday morning and into the east Monday arvo
It would assume that would indicate the time of rain.

[Supercellimpact]

GFS has gone from 20mm to 75mm in one run so it's undecided of what it what's to give. EC has about 20mm for here. So I will just have to wait on see of it's right.

[typhoon29]

Hey all, great day today, I am a dad, Tabitha was born 14/12/2011

cheers

[Rhino]

Great news Typhoon, congrats to all and hope everyone's doing well. Is she your first?

Rhino.

[HarleyB]

Congrats typhoon!! Wonderful news!

[mad*moo73]

Congrats typhoon!!!!!!!!

[Rivergirl]

Big congrats Typhoon! A beautiful baby girl, Tabitha

[mantis]

Grongats , hope all is well

[Lily]

Oh lovely Typhoon, big congrats to you both. Love the name, gorgeous <3

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Congratulations on the Baby. !

Aww a girl, just what I wanted, but I wouldn't swap him for anything now.

[typhoon29]

thanks to all. yeah number 1.

as to the weather, looking like a carbon (I hope Julia doesn't tax me!!!!) copy of last weekends system but hopefully we do better than 4mm.

[nafets]

Latest run of the GFS. Shows statewide falls of 25mm+ and 50mm+ throughout the NE and SW.

[mantis]

If it is a carbon copy of last weekends event then I will expect the one drop that landed on my face outside the supermarket on Sunday LOL

[Jake Smethurst]

Haha that made me laugh Mantis!

Thought I better post in here finally.

The system is still looking rather complex but good to see GFS bringing back the heavier falls in the last couple of runs. Model consensus re: positioning of the low is still variable, but I think the low tracking south of Adelaide on Saturday and then off the southwest coast on Sunday is a fair call. Still could change though, the low might end up going right over us as some models have been flirting with that idea. I'm pretty certain most areas will see a good general 15-25mm, with the potential for higher falls to 50mm or even more in some patches about the west and southwest, and also in the northeast again. Thunderstorm activity is a harder one to pin-point but there does look likely to be some activity around, despite expected cloud cover. Could see heavier falls under them too.

As for today, marginally unstable in the northeast, slight risk of one or two very isolated thunderstorms, check the thunderstorm forecast for more details. Tomorrow looks slightly better.

Dont forget to check all the AWF forecasts at their new location, all can be found here on the temporary home page: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/main.html