The wind forecast map indicates a wind change and front at around 4pm on Sunday on a north/south alignment on the SA /VIC border
as indicated by the red line on the wind map below. This wind model has the low centred in the s/west of the state in Bass strait.
It indicates wind change at Melbourne longitude at Monday 10am . So that indicates a slow moving system taking 18 hrs to get from border to central
The wind map then reckons the trough/low remains in the east of the state on Monday and into Tuesday morning
As Johnno has said, some models like ACCESS have it further north in the n/west of the state on Sunday 4pm ( 1001 hpascals)and ACCESS has the low centering over the center of the state and Melbourne and metropolitan on the Monday .about 1004 hpascals
The ultimate position of the low could affect predicted rainfall considerably.
Thinking the best falls could follow the center of the low .
So if was betting on wind map scenario .. Better falls in south of the state and the eastern quadrant.?. However
Still a few days out so look forward to see if wind map changes its mind in the coming days