Warm first half of March Victoria

Australis(Shell3155) · Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:18 am

johnno » Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:35 pm wrote:
johnno wrote:Um is there something wrong with the radar or is there big storms in Bass Straight at the moment???

Been watching those also.. North East Tassie has confetti sprinkled around a fair bit too.. specially if you look at the national screen.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:38 am

It's bushfire smoke to our east and southeast thats creating those rain echoes.

stratospear · Post by **stratospear** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 10:16 am

Forecast models for mid-next week:
Access says a rainy cold front around on Mar 13, GFS has unrelenting heat, EC has a dryish cool change on Mar 13.

None of them have a substantial cold front in the mix really, although EC has reasonably cool air for Mar 14.

I_Love_Storms · Post by **I_Love_Storms** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 4:30 pm

This weather is pretty amazing, can never remember anything like this type of run for Melbourne. Potentially unprecedented if it continues as per BOMs latest forecast.

WeatherViewer · Post by **WeatherViewer** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 4:57 pm

Melbourne seems to be quite the Mediterranean Climate this summer/Autumn?

Amazing long run of heat for this time of year though!

mick · Post by **mick** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:32 pm

Warm? THE DROUGHTS BACK!!!!!

droughtbreaker · Post by **droughtbreaker** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:42 pm

IMO, this is pretty much the most extreme period of warmer than average weather ever seen in Victoria in terms of above average temps.

I assume if it comes off as forecast it will be the hottest 10 day period ever recorded for most of VIC although I need someone to look into the records and see if this is the case. I doubt anything in summer has ever surpassed it.

I doubt the models will change for the better now. Absolutely no change until Wednesday next week. Until then only the slight chance of thunderstorms on some of the days.

stratospear · Post by **stratospear** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:07 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:IMO, this is pretty much the most extreme period of warmer than average weather ever seen in Victoria in terms of above average temps.

I assume if it comes off as forecast it will be the hottest 10 day period ever recorded for most of VIC although I need someone to look into the records and see if this is the case. I doubt anything in summer has ever surpassed it.

If you include winter, then June 1957 and July 1975 appear to be most extreme examples. May 2002 is also in the ballpark.

Geoff · Post by **Geoff** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:12 pm

Enjoy this "Indian Summer" is my advice, while it lasts. Going by 40-odd years of weather watching, I reckon we're in for one hell of a winter to make up for this!

stratospear · Post by **stratospear** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:25 pm

Geoff » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:12 pm wrote:
Geoff wrote:Enjoy this "Indian Summer" is my advice, while it lasts. Going by 40-odd years of weather watching, I reckon we're in for one hell of a winter to make up for this!

If the warmer than normal water south of Australia gets a move on, then that's possible IMO.

In the meantime, cannot wait for this heat to buzz off.

snowshow · Post by **snowshow** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:58 pm

I have lived in south gippy for 16 years and I have never seen it this dry, praying for some lovely rain we only managed 25ml in the last round. I must be getting soft because we used to live in central west nsw where it was 40 or over most days and nights and I have never felt so drained by the heat, as I am now. Here's hoping for some nice, steady, soaking rain, my cattle are complaining they need some grass to chew, not the brown straw that is in the paddocks

P.S. Hope you are right Geoff

johnno · Post by **johnno** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:47 pm

Unfortuntly I think were paying for it now cos we already had a good wet Winter last Year hope I'm wrong though

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 10:34 pm

Reading the reports from Melbourne, really noticing the difference between here and there. Mainly due to elevation I suppose (600 m asl) we haven't climbed above 28 for over a week now, and even Ballarat Airport 150 m lower hasn't cracked 30. Feels very much like early autumn, especially having greened up following the rain in the last half of Feb. We may crack 30 tomorrow, but then several more sub 30 days, with the chance as hillybilly says of some showers to keep the green tinge http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

So far we are nowhere near the heat of March 2008, which from 10/3 to 17/3 went 35, 27, 30, 34, 34, 35, 35, 36! (God knows what it was like in the lowlands!)

stratospear · Post by **stratospear** » Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:16 am

It looks like there is a fair bit of consensus that the cool change will arrive in Vic on the evening of March 13 with a strong NWly ahead of it. And a fairly dry cool change at that.

What isn't a consensus is what might happen in the Coral Sea. GFS has a nasty TC smashing the Central Qld coast mid-week

Australis(Shell3155) · Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:49 pm

Scoresby WS 29.4C
32.8 here in this patch of dirt,
picture is still clouds with lines representing rain and a downward arrow..

Pane · Post by **Pane** » Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:13 pm

G'day

My lawn has greened right up since our good little drop last week.

I see according to elders that we are ment to have nth est winds for the next 7 days. Surely if that comes off it will get humid and eventually let go with a bang!

It's actually trying to cloud over here today and a mate up past hay was telling me this morning it looked showery up there so maybe that trough is dipping sth.

Worked for a bloke in his 80's yesterday who grew up here and he thinks we are in for a wet winter. He said he remembers the weather been like this before and was followed by bumper crops. I ask the farmer where I am today about this bloke and said that he was rarely wrong. He predicted the break in drought and said last September we were in for a dry summer. So maybe this bloke is right.

Cheers

WeatherViewer · Post by **WeatherViewer** » Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:57 pm

I know this is a little while out, but any predictions to what the forecast may be for the Melbourne F1 GP race day (March 17th)?

WeatherViewer · Post by **WeatherViewer** » Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:41 pm

Holy cow, BOMS latest forecast: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml
Climbing to 37 next Wednesday? I can't remember the last time it's ever been so hot in March...

Hit over 35c today in Wyndham Vale!

I_Love_Storms · Post by **I_Love_Storms** » Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:47 pm

This looks like an EPIC heatwave. Look at the minimums as well!

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:52 pm

Geez next week forecast is now out for "Melbourne in Mediterranean"
Def looking at records being broken as long as Fridays southerly does not come in too early
Monday Min 21 Max 36 Sunny
Tuesday Min 24 Max 36 Sunny
Wednesday Min 25 Max 37

Models at this stage suggest a cool dry change later Wed or Thursday
Loving the warm weather as swimming in the bay after work each day
Currently the bay is 24c (some kind of record)

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Warm first half of March Victoria

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