Warm first half of March Victoria

[Nick Sykes]

Well it looks like Victoria is entering another extended period of warm weather for the first week or two of March with a blocking pattern likely to be established in the Tasman with a resulting persistent NE/N flow. This will bring with it warm temperatures, maximums look likely to remain above average for the foreseeable future. Maximums look likely to get above 30 but at this stage don't look too extreme (eg near 40). March often has long periods of warm weather and this one looks like following that trend.

In regards to precipitation, cant see anything significant at this stage, maybe some instability around mid-late week as moisture levels increase a bit and the possibility of a trough forming as we see a transition of high pressure systems.

Enjoy the warm weather, we are marching towards the equinox now so this warm to hot weather wont last forever.

Nick

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like a crazy run of heat and dry. Great beach weather, shame most of us are at work!

[droughtbreaker]

This is ridiculous, this happens most years now. March has become the driest month here where it used to be February and it is becoming more like an extended summer over the SE of Aus, forget about Autumn until the equinox at the very earliest basically. The lack of southerly air is becoming a bit of a joke too, hardly any cool changes in Feb and now March looks the same after this 'blink and you'll miss it' period of cooler weather we are experiencing now.

I'll concede that March ,especially the first half, is still very warm in many years. days and weeks well above 30C is not normal though.

The only ray of hope is that EC is showing a little bit happening in the upper levels and also with the LWT over WA. It's not just a massive blocking high over most of the continent like we had in January where you can basically set your watch to it. It seems a little bit more complex than that at this stage so there is still the chance that model outputs could change over the next week.

[stevco123]

This is ridiculous, this happens most years now. March has become the driest month here where it used to be February and it is becoming more like an extended summer over the SE of Aus, forget about Autumn until the equinox at the very earliest basically. The lack of southerly air is becoming a bit of a joke too, hardly any cool changes in Feb and now March looks the same after this 'blink and you'll miss it' period of cooler weather we are experiencing now.

I'll concede that March ,especially the first half, is still very warm in many years. days and weeks well above 30C is not normal though.

To think that we can expect cooler weather before the equinox is foolish. Autumn starts on the 21st March, not the first! !!!! So this warm weather is perfectly normal. I'm actually sick of people saying that autumn has started. Not quite my friends. .. another 18 days.

[droughtbreaker]

Not entirely correct.....

It is normal to have extended warm to hot weather and the odd major heatwave before the equinox, it's not normal to have a week or more of consecutive (i.e. unbroken) 30C+ days over this period. if you look through the records you will only find a smattering of years that saw a week like what the models and BOM are forecasting for Melbourne atm. This is coming off one of the hottest spring/summer periods on record for Vic and most of Aus for that matter.

It can't just be dismissed as 'normal' because March is often warm to hot in the first half of the month. The precise historical observations need to be taken into account as well.

[tre75]

I guess many of us have forgotten what 'normal' is after having 2 consecutive wet humid summers, and then you have the blurriness when it comes to weather and normal, average is a better word, doesn't seem that far from average too me, the nights after the rain have gotten a little cooler, once again we have the strong high pressure systems dictating warm weather, not far from average either for this time of year, even the long spells of heat, remember the drought we just had before la nina came, that was years of this weather, and much hotter too.

So when we finally do get another system of rain and cold front (with the cool airmass behind it) then we will really notice the autumn effect, the land has cooled a little as we aren't getting predictions of over 35 whereas 2 week before we had 38.9 in Geelong during that warm weather before the initial cooling rain.

More rain, more rain, more rain, more rain ... more rain more rain more rain, more rain more rain more rain more rain .. MORERAINMORERAINMORERAIN.

[droughtbreaker]

For Melbourne in March, 7 consecutive days above 30C is the one to beat. This occurred in 1914 and 1940.

The odds are heavily leaning towards this record being broken and potentially smashed this month.

[johnno]

The record for March is 7 and the record for any month is 8 but some models looking little troughy now later in the week which could put a cap on temps reaching 30c in the CBD with earlier seabreezes

[Geoff]

Cripes, the BOM are going for sunny conditions every day this coming week and temperatures in the 30's building up to 35c by Sunday!

[93ben]

Cripes, the BOM are going for sunny conditions every day this coming week and temperatures in the 30's building up to 35c by Sunday!

Yeah 32 and above isn't normal for this time of year. Hence it being forecast to be over 30 degrees this whole week. Usually we would have temperatures going up and down between 23 degrees and 32 degrees. It's true that the "real" autumn hasn't arrive yet but keep in mind these forecasts aren't normal for this time of year. Yeah we have some 30 degrees days in the first weeks of March but it's not above 30 degrees every day and reaches 35 degrees! I wouldn't be surprised if we reach a 40 degrees in March atm. The weather just has been really strange lately.

[droughtbreaker]

It's not any of the individual temperatures forecast for Melbourne over the next week or so that is exceptional, it's the number of consecutive days at these temperatures that is.

In most years we usually get at least a few days over 30C and sometimes they can get into the mid to high 30s, especially in the first half of the month. There have been a handful of days recorded over 40C in Melbourne for March but this is very rare. Long stretches of high 20s to low 30s are not all that uncommon but not 32C-35C. As far as the models go I can't see a day above 36C or 37C at this stage and this is set to occur in around 7 days.

There may be sea breezes around Melbourne at stages during this heatwave, although as we saw just a couple of weeks ago this does not necessarily mean that maximum temperatures will remain below 30C in the CBD on any of those days.

To be completely honest, on current model outputs I am expecting every day between tomorrow and around about next Tuesday to be above 30C in Melbourne. That would mean 9 days above 30C and would break the all time yearly record for most consecutive days above 30C. Wednesday could easily end up 30C too as EC has the change moving through late, although this is way off in model la la land so I won't put too much emphasis on it.

Models can change of course, as we all know. There could be an unexpected break down of the blocking pattern before the record is reached, but I strongly doubt it as models usually pick these sort of patterns pretty well, especially when all models are pretty much mirroring each other.

It's a real kick in the face as it will bring back the bushfire risk and plants will go back into stress again by the end of it. If we had gone back into a more normal pattern with changes coming through then that would have been the end more or less of the fire season and we could have still had a nice Autumn with things greening up a bit and a nice tree colour display. At this rate I doubt that we will see this sort of thing this Autumn.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Pretty Windy one last night.
Ouch looking at that forecast, at least we have water in tanks to use.
Noticed that warmth later on this afternoon with the main rooms facing west.
WS is pointing to rain here, means I'll get some but no one else..

[Geoff]

WS is pointing to rain here

Yes Shell, I've read a few reports of people's WS forecasting rain tonight, I can only assume they're being fooled by a plume of moisture coming down from NSW into northern Vic as shown on the latest Water Vapour loop from BSCH...
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.htm ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
There seems no reason to expect any rain from this, there's certainly no trigger around to produce anything of note.

[stratospear]

For Melbourne in March, 7 consecutive days above 30C is the one to beat. This occurred in 1914 and 1940.

The odds are heavily leaning towards this record being broken and potentially smashed this month.

Just had a quick look at the data from those heatwaves - the March 1914 wasn't particularly hot, with the warmest day only getting to 35.3c. March 1940 on the other hand was an absolute stinker with 6 days (in total) over 100F with March 11 peaking at 41.7c, and even a 38.7c day on March 29! Total number of days over 30c = 14 (remarkable).

March 2008 is a recent example of a hot March: 9 days over 30c, 5 days over 100F, and max of 39.2c on March 14.

It looks like a cyclone could develop in the Coral Sea thus providing an anchor point for the Tasman anti-cyclone. Possibly some rain mid-late next week.

[Rivergirl]

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:WS is pointing to rain here, means I'll get some but no one else..

Geoff - Yes Shell, I've read a few reports of people's WS forecasting rain tonight, I can only assume they're being fooled by a plume of moisture coming down from NSW into northern Vic

See Shell you're not the only one

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Mine is still showing a picture of clouds with water falling out of it,
Although the temp says 32.9 C
Just awesome time of year, sunsets and sunrises are magic in both directions.

[stratospear]

Incidentally the Northern end of Port Philip Bay is almost 25c:
http://www.baywx.com/temps.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So sea-breeze development will probably be quite weak this week. No wonder Melb CBD ended up warmer than forecast.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, day one in the bag. Who knows what we could end up with in Melbourne by the end of it. The sky's the limit basically, unless ECMWF holds the frontal passage for next Wednesday in the upcoming 00z run. GFS trying to keep Melbourne above 30C indefinitely and potentially 35C-36C by the end of it. I usually have strong doubts about what GFS is trying to do though, i.e. develop a low over WA late in the run. Usually when models do this it doesn't happen, but if EC wants to do it as well in the next run then it's looking very dire.

In 2008, we got strong seabreeze fronts developing and surging inland during the afternoon on the odd day and on some of those days we went southerly all day (from memory). I guess with such a slack setup this is still possible although at this stage I can't see the seabreezes having much of an effect before the temp already gets to 30C, especially inland from the bay.

The actual airmass affecting us for the duration of this event is not rivaling 2008 at this stage in terms of the intensity of the heat, and certainly not 1940. The longevity of the event is set to smash them all though (at least VIC) unless something drastically changes in the outlook.

I just can't believe the March 2008 setup has come right back to haunt us just 5 years later. If it wasn't so serious it would be hilarious.
It's actually a pattern that we have been seeing for about the last 10 to 15 years and was typical of conditions during the drought, i.e. westerlies and fronts completely falling off the chart into oblivion in early to mid Autumn.

[Jake Smethurst]

Not really much to add, Andrew has summed things up quite nicely!

Little bit of moisture potentially causing the odd thundery shower about parts on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but ultimately the temperatures are likely to exceed the 30 degree mark across pretty much the entire state for the forecast period. Latest guidance interestingly hinting at temperatures exceeding 35 degrees about the southwest inland during the period a few times as well, so worth a watch on AWS's.

[johnno]

Um is there something wrong with the radar or is there big storms in Bass Straight at the moment???