VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

[StratoBendigo]

Reports coming in of 40-50mm falls this morning to our East and South. Rain has eased up here now. Round 2 is likely to hit this afternoon/evening looking at the Satpic.

Keep an eye on this chart today: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDV67207/IDV6 ... .plt.shtml

[I_Love_Storms]

Wonder if the 128km Melbourne radar is overdoing it a bit. There is orange but some of the total aren't racking up? You'd expect places like Avalon to be on 10mm plus from 9am

[Gordon]

Torrential here, local flooding beginning. 28mm to 9 am - too busy to check the gauge but hope the rain backs off or there's going to be some damage.

As per the old Chinese saying, be careful what you wish for!

[Rivergirl]

Flood Summary
Issued at 9:59 am EST on Tuesday 13 September 2016.

The following Watches/Warnings are current:

Moderate Flood Warning for the Glenelg River

Moderate Flood Warning for the Loddon River

Minor Flood Warning for the Avoca River

Minor Flood Warning for the Kiewa River

Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River upstream of Lake Hume

Minor Flood Warning for the Snowy River

Initial Minor Flood Warning for Werribee River

Final Flood Warning for the Ovens and King Rivers

Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip)

Flood Watch for the Barwon, Moorabool, Leigh and Hovells Creek Catchments and Otway Ranges

Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins

Flood Watch for the Glenelg and Hopkins Basins

Flood Warnings, Flood Watches, River Height and Rainfall information are available on the Bureau of Meteorology web site at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/. Flood Warnings and Flood Watches for Victorian Catchments are available on: Telephone Weather Service No. 1300 659217.

http://www.bom.gov.au

[Rivergirl]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:17 am Tuesday, 13 September 2016.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A surface trough over Victoria and an upper level trough over the Bight will develop into a low pressure system over western Victoria later today. The low will then move slowly eastwards across the State during Wednesday then over the Tasman Sea during Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over parts of the Mallee, Northern Country, Wimmera, North Central, Central and Southwest districts during Tuesday.
Widespread 24 hours rainfall totals of 20 to 50mm are forecast across parts of western and central Victoria, with isolated higher falls of 60 to 70mm possible. Thunderstorms may also result in heavier falls.
Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Kyneton and Ballarat.
The highest totals in the 24 hours to 9am today include:
-32mm at Avalon Station
-32mm at Charlton
-29mm at Warracknabeal
-25mm at Birchip
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Don't walk, ride or drive through flood water;
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains;
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks;
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads;
The next warning is due to be issued by 4:20 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
http://www.bom.gov.au

[Macedonian]

Its amazing how Victoria can suffer from flooding on the back of relatively minor rainfall totals.
30+mm over 24hrs is not really that much rain.
It must be the flat terrain.

[Geoff]

Its amazing how Victoria can suffer from flooding on the back of relatively minor rainfall totals.

200mm - 800mm over the last 3 months over much of the state means a very high water table.....

[HarleyB]

Missed out again here (relatively) so far. Sitting right on the edge of that big blob for ages. We're on 14mm here so far Anything West or South West is already on 25mm plus, so it's shaping up as a pretty major event.

It's still coming down from around Port Augusta, that's on a collision course for the southern mallee that has already had 30mm plus and the central district. I wonder whether the track and/or intensity of that blob will hold as it moves closer?

[Skywalker]

Looks like home is really in for it going by that yellow/orange blob on the radar.
It simply has not let up here at work & has got heavier during the past 10 minutes.

[Gordon]

Its amazing how Victoria can suffer from flooding on the back of relatively minor rainfall totals.

200mm - 800mm over the last 3 months over much of the state means a very high water table.....

Exactly Geoff. Any rain that falls now is running off like the ground is a tin roof, into streams that are already running a banker, and into lakes that are already spilling (no airspace left.) It's a cumulative thing & doesn't require high totals or rain rate to generate damaging floods.

Hoping the SA lot misses us and most of Vic, but not confident.

[stevco123]

Rain significantly heavier in Docklands now, then it was at 10:30am when I went outside

[hillybilly]

7mm more in FC so far today. These north to northeasterly events don't really favour us, so not expecting us to get big falls (thinking probably in the 50-100mm range and closer to 50mm).

Here's the 3 month decile map. For Vic it was our wettest winter since 2013. Catchments along the divide are particularly primed (looks like Gordon is about leading in a relative sense).



Rain band will step back the next few hours and focus on the Wimmera/Mallee/West Central. The odd thing about this low is the slow movement which will just see rain pile up in the same locations.

[Gordon]

Bugger .

[StratoBendigo]

Yeah, it looks like the area around Birchip and Donald will be where the heaviest rain will fall this afternoon. We're basically going to be on the edge of it and I doubt we'll get anywhere near what GFS is suggesting.

[Hawker]

Another 14 this morning, 30 in total so far.
I wonder when the low develops if the wind will go around
to the north, which will increase the rain with extra lift.

[Gordon]

Over 40 mm since yesterday, 83.5 mm mtd. Rain has stopped for a moment, which is a relief. Doesn't look like much of break though.

[StratoBendigo]

26mm so far. Rain has just started falling again - it'll be an interesting 20 hours ahead.

I thought I'd dig into the archives a bit. This year is turning out very similar to 1978 in this neck of the woods. The parallels are uncanny.

[Macedonian]

Over 40 mm since yesterday, 83.5 mm mtd. Rain has stopped for a moment, which is a relief. Doesn't look like much of break though.

Wow thats a lot more than here MTD. No wonder its running out your way Gordon.

I just had a bit of a local drive around, lots of standing water and water running in ditches etc. I crossed some of the local creeks and they are running well but not running over too much.

[stevco123]

Rainband now retreating to the west as the low sucks it up. May be several hours before we get any rain now here in the metro area.

Perhaps some of the experts know better detail on here?

[Jake Smethurst]

Will take a look at the models now Steve, although I am no expert!