Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

[StratoBendigo]

Interesting little system over Southern NSW and down into NE Vic atm.

I wonder if the rainband near Deniliquin will make its way South of the border this evening?

[Jake Smethurst]

Fairly big, slow-moving thunderstorms across eastern Victoria this afternoon. McKillops Bridge has seen 144mm of rainfall since 2pm, and I believe nearly 100mm of that fell in an hour. The BoM have a storm warning in place and a minor flood warning active for the Snowy River.

[Wilko]

Rain moving in from the north east
As always the force field is up with the weather coming from that direction
On a seperate note SE Qld should be largely underwater by the end of the weekend

[Jake Smethurst]

Short-term guidance suggesting that some of those showers may affect the northeastern, eastern and southeastern suburbs this evening. Certainly worth watching, but falls less than 5mm generally.

[stevco123]

Starting to rain here. Can see it streaming from the north east

[hillybilly]

Rain moving in from the north east

Odd situation - models missed this even at short range, though morning update of ACCESS-C picked it up. Little upper low and surface trough moving southwest. ACCESS-C has locally heavy falls into central areas tonight. EC kinda had something but out with its timing by ~12 hours or so.

Raining at home - not heavy yet - radar looks more impressive that the gauge

Humidity and easterlies just rolls on. Feels a bit like we've moved to Sydney with this alternation between mild/humid southeasterlies and hot/humid northeasterlies.

[hillybilly]

Woken by heavy rain here... And a very colourful radar. About 4mm in quick time. Looks like it's about to start up again shortly.

Foggy morning... Makes 13 fog days for the month

EC and ACCESS keen on a thundery afternoon

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Lovely virus household woken with vomit,
But it's nice to hear it pelting down with rain which means a day off the mower.

[Geoff]

Hugely convective situation out there this morning, combined with near saturated atmosphere, things could well go off today. Just getting some huge drops from a sharp shower that appeared out of nowhere on the radar. Temp. 15.5C DP 14.7C!

[Skywalker]

Another beautiful morning for the ride into work. Perfect conditions out this way for cycling, no wind at all.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Any more word on storms this arvo.?
Our school has swimming carnival on.
Kids in pool with daggers of electricity around wouldn't be an ideal situation,
especially if it was anything like last Friday show. Wow.

[Rivergirl]

Hope you all feel better soon Shell

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks alright, GFS putting a lot of rainfall further east of Central. Instability will be around...EC did have 15mm last night now back to nothing. Hopefully it hasn't shifted too far east at the last minute, we will see

[Skywalker]

Nice of the BOM to take the non-eastern areas into consideration when releasing their Melbourne forecasts.
There is no chance of us getting anything out this way today.

Hope everyone recovers Shell.
Having a horror run with my 4 year old. He has just recovered from a nasty UTI infection, and now has developed a head cold. Can't win.

[hillybilly]

Any more word on storms this arvo.?

ACCESS-C and EC are marginal - isolated showers in eastern areas. GFS pretty much says nope. Trough looks too far east for most of central areas with southerlies extending east. Is unstable and lots of humidity, but the southerly is going to cap convection. A chance, but not that hopeful back home for today now

If something is to develop, would look at the convergence between the southerlies and the northerlies - one such zone is over the eastern burbs of Melbourne currently.

[Geoff]

Good grief, the 128km Melb. radar is as good as useless at the moment, so much interference on it, I'm having to rely on the satellite image and the webcams (and my dodgy eyes) to determine what's going on out there. Anyone know what is causing it?

[stevco123]

I see the BoM have included possible storms in the northern and eastern suburbs for today.

What are the chances of this?

[Skywalker]

Well if yesterdays debacle is anything to go by I'd say zero.

[stevco123]

Looks like the first cells are popping up between Beaufort and ballarat

[BigBen]

Wow, bom radar has a NASTY storm just appearing out of nowhere over just west of the CBD. cell has a big black core.