The Australian Weather Forum

South East Queensland and North East NSW are in the firing line again for decent rainfall over the next week.

Brisbane forecast reads
Today: Shower or two, chance storm. Late rain. 29c
Thurs: Rain, heavy at times. Local thunder. 26c
Fri: Rain easing late. 27c
Sat: A few showers. 28c
Sun: Rain at times, local thunder. 27c
Mon: Rain at times, local thunder. 28c
Tues: Rain at times, local thunder. 28c

Of course it is subject to change however, here is this mornings EC run for Brisbane
Thurs: 56mm
Fri: 20mm
Sat: 15mm
Sun: 69mm
Mon: 102mm
Tues: 67mm

Interesting times ahead!!

With thanks to the Bureau of Meteorology

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TWEED, BRUNSWICK, RICHMOND/WILSONS AND CLARENCE RIVER VALLEYS FOR THURSDAY
Issued at 8:46 am EDT on Wednesday 5 January 2011

Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

Between 50 to 100 millimetres of rain is expected in the north east corner of the state on Thursday, with possible higher local falls.

The above catchments are wet from recent rain so there is a higher than 70% of further flooding developing during Thursday in the following:

1. Tweed Valley - moderate flooding including local flooding in several areas including Chillingham

2. Richmond and Wilsons Valleys - moderate to major flooding

3. Brunswick Valley - moderate to major flooding

4. Clarence Valley - minor flooding

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. Across NSW, about 70% of Flood Watches are followed by flooding.

FloodSafe advice is available at http://www.ses.nsw.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately.

Weather Forecast:
For the latest weather forecast see http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next Issue:
This flood watch will be reviewed by 11am Thursday 6/1/11.

For latest rainfall and river level information see http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Maranoa, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Southeast Coast, Wide
Bay and Burnett and Capricornia forecast districts and southern parts of the
Central Highlands and Coalfields district.

Issued at 11:10 am on Wednesday 5 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 10am EST, a trough extended from northwestern Queensland
into the southern Maranoa. The trough is expected to intensify as it moves
slowly east over the next 24 hours.

Thundery rain areas with some heavy falls are expected to develop this evening
and overnight over the Maranoa, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Southeast
Coast districts and southern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Central
Highlands and Coalfields districts. This heavy rain is expected to extend to the
Capricornia and remaining parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett during Thursday. The
rain will ease over the Maranoa, western Darling Downs and southwestern Central
Highlands and Coalfields during Thursday.

Heavy rainfall may lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen current river
flooding.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:00 pm Wednesday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly

BoM WATL 8 day chart

00z GFS run

521mm forecast for Mooloolaba over next 8 days...

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Queens ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Southeast Coast, Wide Bay and
Burnett, Capricornia and Central Highlands and Coalfields district.
Issued at 5:00 pm on Wednesday 5 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 4pm EST, a trough extended from northwestern Queensland
into the Darling Downs. The trough is expected to intensify as it moves slowly
east over the next 24 hours.

Thundery rain areas with some heavy falls are occurring over the Darling Downs
and Granite Belt, Southeast Coast districts and southern parts of the Wide Bay
and Burnett and Central Highlands and Coalfields districts.

This heavy rain is expected to extend to the Capricornia and remaining parts of the Wide Bay and
Burnett and eastern Central Highlands and Coalfields during Thursday.

The rain will ease over the western Darling Downs and southwestern Central Highlands and
Coalfields on Thursday.

Heavy rainfall may lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen current river
flooding.

Heavy rainfall has eased over the Maranoa District and a Severe Weather Warning
for this area is no longer current.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:00 pm Wednesday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Big band of rain slowly moving towards Brisbane & Gold Coast.
Not huge falls (max around 24mm @ Toowoomba) but this is just the beginning!

Ok, now starting to turn ugly for our QLD friends!
Bands significantly intensifying over the past 30mins!

I just spoke to a mate of mine on the GC and they are sick of the rain!! Anywhere near those totals forecast will see chaos as its already sodden up there..

Remember the Brisbane river is almost overflowing...could get ugly.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast district and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and
Burnett District.
Issued at 8:30 am on Thursday 6 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 8am EST, an upper level low was developing over the
southeastern interior of Queensland. A slow moving surface trough extended from
northwestern Queensland into the Darling Downs.

Rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to increase through the Southeast
Coast District and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett District this
afternoon. Some heavy falls are expected which may lead to localised flash
flooding and/or worsen existing river flooding.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected through the Capricornia and remaining parts
of the Wide Bay and Burnett District. Locally heavy falls may occur with these
thunderstorms and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as necessary.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11am Thursday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast District and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and
Burnett District.
Issued at 10:45 am on Thursday 6 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 10am EST, an upper level low was developing over the
southeastern interior of Queensland. A slow moving surface trough extended from
northwestern Queensland into eastern Darling Downs.

Rain areas and thunderstorms will increase further through the Southeast Coast
District and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett District today. Some
heavy falls are expected which may lead to localised flash flooding and/or
worsen existing river flooding.

Rainfall is expected to ease about the Southeast Coast District during Friday.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected through the Capricornia and remaining parts
of the Wide Bay and Burnett District. Locally heavy falls may occur today with
these thunderstorms and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as
necessary.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.


The next warning is due to be issued by 5pm Thursday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Coolangatta recorded near on 110mm to 9am this morning.
And more to come!!

With thanks to the Bureau of Meteorology

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TWEED, BRUNSWICK, RICHMOND/WILSONS AND CLARENCE RIVER VALLEYS
Issued at 10:26 am EDT on Thursday 6 January 2011

Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

An average of 40 to 60 millimetres of rain, with some locally heavier totals, fell over the 24 hours to 9am Thursday in the above valleys. While there is still a risk of flooding during Thursday, the main future flood threat will occur from next Sunday to Tuesday when further heavy rain is predicted for the NSW northern rivers.

The above catchments are wet from recent rain so there is a higher than 70% of further flooding developing during Sunday evening onwards in the following:

1. Tweed Valley - moderate flooding including local flooding in several areas including Chillingham

2. Richmond and Wilsons Valleys - moderate to major flooding

3. Brunswick Valley - moderate to major flooding

4. Clarence Valley - including the Orara River - minor to moderate flooding

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. Across NSW, about 70% of Flood Watches are followed by flooding.

FloodSafe advice is available at http://www.ses.nsw.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately.

Weather Forecast:

For the latest weather forecast see http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next Issue:

This flood watch will be reviewed by 11am Friday 7/1/11.

For latest rainfall and river level information see http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett
districts.

Issued at 4:50 pm on Thursday 6 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 4pm EST, an upper level low was developing over the
southeastern interior of Queensland and is forecast to move in a north northeast
direction overnight. A slow moving surface trough extended from northwestern
parts of the state down into the southeast.

Rain areas and thunderstorms will continue through parts of the Southeast Coast
district north of Brisbane and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett
district this evening and overnight. Some heavy falls are expected which may
lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen existing river flooding.

Rain areas and thunderstorms have eased in parts of the Southeast Coast district
south of Brisbane but may redevelop overnight. Heavy rain areas are forecast to
contract into eastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett district on Friday.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected through the Capricornia and remaining parts
of the Wide Bay and Burnett District. Locally heavy falls may occur today with
these thunderstorms and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as
necessary.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.


The next warning is due to be issued by 11pm Thursday

Thanks ILS!

Ballina with 144mm since 9am and Gympie up to 89mm for the day, 130mm+ for the event so far!
Upper low winding up now, another crazy event!!

EDIT: Big watch for severe storms off the coast near Rockhampton.

Nice line approaching Brisbane!

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett
districts.
Issued at 5:25 am on Friday 7 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 0420am EST, an upper level low occurs over the Capricorn
region at present and will contribute to further rain areas over southeastern
region today.

Some heavy falls may occur about the eastern Burnett, Wide Bay and northern
parts of the Sunshine coast later today with the potential for flash flooding
and this may contribute to existing flooding situation.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11am Thursday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

This mornings WATL chart thanks to the Bureau of Meteorology

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast and Wide Bay and Burnett districts.
Issued at 4:55 am on Saturday 8 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 10pm EST, an upper level low was located offshore from
the Capricornia district while a low level trough was located near the Wide Bay
coast.

Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are currently occurring about the southern
Wide Bay and Burnett district and are forecast to develop about the Sunshine
Coast during Saturday morning, and remaining parts of the Southeast Coast
district on Saturday afternoon. Heavy rain may lead to localised flash flooding
and/or worsen existing river flooding.

Recent events: Rainfall of up to 220mm over the Mary River catchment since 9am
Friday has caused rapid river rises there, see separate Flood Warning for
details.

Flood warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts;
refer to these products [www.bom.gov.au/qld] for further information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
· take care on the roads, especially in heavy downpours
· avoid swimming in swollen rivers and creeks

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5am Saturday

Latest WATL chart thanks to the BoM