The Australian Weather Forum

I think the trigger will be there Supercell. The question at this time is how hot conditions will become. Latest GFS has eased the heat back, just waiting for the rest of the model suite to see what's going on. Still a while out, so could all change again.

ACCESS has been not too bad for my part of the state before.

ACCESS has the poorest skill scores out of the model suite and it is good for guide only. It is commonly an outlier.

US has calmed down on heat but it is probably resetting at this time.

Its common sense for the models to ease temps back as Dps are progged to be super high, 26s through Southern WA is enormous and will cause another flood disaster.

Should see mid 30s through Vic, and with Dps that are progged a big rain or storm outbreak.

40C+ yesterday, hasnt this thread now run its race?

Just been looking back through the CFA's TFB history, at this stage last fire season, we had already had 5 TFB days, compared with only 1 so far this one. Any guesses on how many more we will have this season?


Still not looking overly hot anytime soon, may only see one >40° day for the summer!! crazy!

Yeah thats partly due to the higher Dps this year, i think its looking very tropical next 3 months..will be very warm but extremely humid.

There will be more 40 degree days this Summer. Just wait and see. People said there wouldn't be this Summer, and look, there already has been one. More to come in my opinion.

im on the cautious side this year as well. I didn't think we would get any, and that does happen more often that not, but as NYE proved, no matter what the conditions, it can still happen. So yeah who knows maybe 1 or 2 more (and a March one too one can hope!)

Power Storm wrote:There will be more 40 degree days this Summer. Just wait and see. People said there wouldn't be this Summer, and look, there already has been one. More to come in my opinion.

PS, bet you are right although many experts on this forum are skeptical (albiet a bit surprised at last Fridays extreme) - what are you basing your prediction on?

Yeah I am probably out on this by myself. I'm basing this on pure past La Ninas, with most causing extreme heat spells across South Australia and Victoria at some point during the Summer or Autumn. I'm not saying there will be a heat spell, but La Nina's usually cause extreme heat across parts of Victoria. I can't see anything different this time around apart from the colder uppers, but we reached 40 last Friday, so the potential is there for the next few months.

Power Storm wrote:Yeah I am probably out on this by myself. I'm basing this on pure past La Ninas, with most causing extreme heat spells across South Australia and Victoria at some point during the Summer or Autumn. I'm not saying there will be a heat spell, but La Nina's usually cause extreme heat across parts of Victoria. I can't see anything different this time around apart from the colder uppers, but we reached 40 last Friday, so the potential is there for the next few months.

Please dont think I'm picking on you but I read a post from Ken recently elsewhere, who stated that La Nina usually quelled mininmum and maximum temperature extremes in SE Aus, - he DID also say that prolonged hot spells can and do occur when you look back on previous records. But he was stating that extreme heat spells dont normally occur.

The difference is the IOD, in 2008 temps were extreme because the IOD was positive, and the air over the interior was extremely dry.

Temps are still hot this year, but not as dry so the chance of getting extreme heat will be slim. Long range models consistently prog cyclones until mid February so the moisture is huge this year which wont allow dry build up heat of 2008/9. Also 850 temps are progged 2 degrees cooler than normal next 3 months.

Just my thoughts.

La Nina to break down later this year
Updated Sat Jan 1, 2011 2:08pm AEDT


La Nina is associated with wetter conditions in eastern Australia. (User submitted: Cameron Parker)

Related Story: Rockhampton to be flooded until mid-January Related Story: Flooded residents face weeks without homes Higher-than-average rainfall is expected to continue until at least March as eastern Australia's La Nina weather pattern persists into 2011.

La Nina is associated with wetter conditions in eastern Australia and the current event is the strongest forecasters have observed since 1973.

But the weather bureau's Ryan White says the weather pattern is expected to weaken later in the year.

"We are expecting the La Nina to break down around March or April," he said.

"And then we expect it to switch probably into more of a neutral phase for 2011.

"For the next three months we're pretty confident that we should get above average rainfall across eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland.

"Also. .. we do believe that we should get warmer days and nights associated with that across south-eastern Australia."


There you go PS, Ryan White from the BOM also backs you up!!!

Lol, pretty funny Petros!! Remind us all of the BOM strike rate..

Hey Guys

Some indications from the models that SE Australia may be headed for some a period of substantial heat from about next weekend, the 22nd of Jan onwards with some really hot air progged to build over SA. Looks like a very strong upper level high will develop over SA which will result in 850 temps of 30c plus. If a block gets established in the Tasman which some models are hinting at then we could see protracted heat.

Will be interesting to see how hot SA gets, maybe a shot at 50 in the making.

Anyway early days.

Nick

Won't happen.The continual cloudiness will put a lid on any extreme temps IMO

I have been surprised at the lack of heat we have had, because of all the cloud, rain. But i like it nice and cool.

Extended GFS has got rid of the intense heat for the Southeast wih the real hot stuff remaining over WA, western SA with Australia
the only real chance of 35+ degrees, of course it still far out and will change.

One of the BOM climatologists agrees with you Nick - heard him on the radio yest. stating that significant rainfall events for Vic should be over in terms of this La Nina.

Personally I dont know how to sit with La Nina progs from here on into late 2011. I think I'll sit on the sidelines with an open mind (and a lot of wishing).

Oh dear, 31C at 850hpa temps forecast for parts of South Australia early next week, could be looking at 47C+ for those parts...