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Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

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Rhys_34
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Rhys_34 »

Thanks for that hillbilly, so going by that guide Forrest or even Eucla could be the ones to watch on Sat/Sun...even better Forrest has it's temps updated hourly so we can really keep an eye on it...
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Anthony Violi
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Anthony Violi »

There is a lot of cloud starting to develop through SE WA so it could cap temps a bit. And that will only increase as the exit from Bianca gets closer down the SW WA coast.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Twister »

Still its very hot and much of inland SA, NT, QLD, NSW and WA are going to see at least another 7+ days of 40c+ heat and 45-48s in much of the out back hot hot hot.

They are amazing progs think we might see a few 48-49c. Sure if we went out there would record a few 50s in SE WA and SW SA but wont be official

Hot week for so much of Aus next week or so only coastal areas will escape with only a few mid 30s days
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Petros
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Petros »

I am missing something, its going to be very warm Sun/Mon coming, but wont the "real heat" arrive at the end of next week? :?:
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by droughtbreaker »

These sort of heatwaves often happen during La Nina when the monsoon is active with multiple TCs spinning away or about to develop don't they? I think I have heard there is some history there. There has to be a major link between tropical activity during the monsoon and extreme inland heat over the continent. With any luck we will avoid the worst of it here because the northerly flow seems to be sticking with an easterly component for most of the time. There are no vigorous Black Saturday style fronts on the way.
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Petros
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Petros »

Must admit I didnt realise the significant of the developing hot air pool, thought it was a normal cycle and in my mind any heat would have been tempered by the moisture in the inland soils.

Thanks for the heads-up and will be watching closely. That AND 3 cyclones in current/next 7 days!!!!!!!! :o :o

I guess (as HB states) day of northerlies at the right time could see us with record/near record heat in Vic, followed only days later by another bout of devastating flooding (from WNW or NE - both are possible). YIKES :o :o :o
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by norfolk »

GFS must be crazy....has 39 for Sunday, 42 for Monday, then 42 again next Thursday! Clearly something is wrong!!
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by David »

Yulara temperture is quite incredable for somewhere 492 metres above sea level, there second hottest day on record after Dec 31st 1993 and hottest jan day ever.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Those temps @ that elevation are quite insane! But this is what happens! Least it is happening in desert country for now!

Interesting EC which is apparently the best of all the models, quoting some on here, has not got the heat dipping into Melbourne at all. So we may be spared thank God!!
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by droughtbreaker »

Yeah, if these temps are going to occur out over desert country where few people live and where insane heatwaves occur regularly anyway then there is basically no damage done. Of course 50C-51C is not a normal heatwave, it is basically all time record breaking but out there all it will do is heat up a few rocks and some sand.

Let's just hope it stays out there and doesn't come down here. I think another factor with La Nina is that we tend to get a dominant easterly flow. I notice this summer we haven't really had that many NW wind days (unless my memory is faulty which it could be). Easterlies not only pump in more moisture over us which leads to cloud development and a general tempering of the air mass, but they also push the hottest air further west.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by I_Love_Storms »

norfolk wrote:GFS must be crazy....has 39 for Sunday, 42 for Monday, then 42 again next Thursday! Clearly something is wrong!!
It is not out of the question. I think next Thursday could be a real spike day.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by norfolk »

well the BOM have decided to change Sunday's forecast to 40c! What does everyone think?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Yes it does appear to be a warmer trend but still cannot see 40C in Melbourne at this time. I think there needs to be some conservative juices added into some forecasts in here. Almost sounds like we are all going to die from heat related deaths!! Calm down.

Does appear that there will be warm days, not heatwave conditions in Melbourne at this time, broken up by a few fronts and cooler coastal days. Head inland for the heatwave conditions, some of the first this summer.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by CAPEcrusader »

norfolk wrote:well the BOM have decided to change Sunday's forecast to 40c! What does everyone think?
Hey Norfolk,

To me that sounds , well normal for this time of year. 41 forecast for geelong here on Sunday- 39 for Shepp same day. The lowish min temp over the same period for Geelong is what standing out more for me- 18 on Sunday, 16 on Monday. If the general heat/cool climate down here atm were an arm wrestle....
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by norfolk »

Oh I know heat like this is normal, I just wanted to know what people thought about the bumping up by the BOM, did all the models begin to agree about the heat, or have the BOM decided to go with GFS as they have been showing heat for Sunday and Monday for a while now?
I suppose just a technical question

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Karl Lijnders
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Yes I suggest if you want to push the GW arguement, place it in the relevant section as there is open slather in there!

Well it appears I will be taking my clothes off Sunday as I did say that it wouldn't get above 40C and here we are! LOL! Well least the fire danger is down in the hot spots around the Dandenongs and Macedon areas. Fingers crossed we get through with a bit of cloud.

Good luck up north.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by HarleyB »

I thought you were taking your clothes off if it was over 50 on the Nullabor plain Karl?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Twister »

Yeah inland looking nuts a WEEK of 40c+ heat that will feel like an oven after the last year or so

Should see 3 days of 38c+ in Melbourne will be cooler close to coast but more than 50k inland hot wind shift will be interesting to watch it battle the N wind could go either way

HOT week for the country non the less
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Anthony Violi
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Anthony Violi »

Following on from earlier posts, all posts relating to the GW debate have been moved to Climatology. The debate itself is perfectly fine, just in the wrong section. There are numerous threads with debates on these very topics. Any further posts in regards to this will also be moved. Thanks.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

HarleyB wrote:I thought you were taking your clothes off if it was over 50 on the Nullabor plain Karl?
Look I will take my clothes off for anything it seems! LOL!!

Watch for the effects of a very shallow wind shift later tomorrow into Monday for the south. Melbourne may be 32C Monday but the outer suburbs will be close to 40C regardless! :(
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