Victoria: Heatwave conditions moving S - Jan 7-11 2010

[Karl Lijnders]

I may just do that. This topic will remain open til midnight tonight.

[Rivergirl]

Here's the BOM Fire Danger Rating issued at 4.47pm today for Monday 11th January
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/vic/forec ... fire.shtml

I see Dunns Hill has an FFDI of 43 which is Very High and not the Extreme rating but the latter rating is for all of the Central area. Tullamarine is 98

Here is the CFA's Fire Danger Rating map. As said above it's an Extreme rating for Central areas
http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/fdr_forecasts.htm#tomorrow

[Anthony Violi]

For those that like the heat...enjoy it tomorrow. It wont be around for a good fortnight, at least.

[droughtbreaker]

Tullamarine has a forest fire danger index of 98 but as we know there is nothing remotely resembling forest out there, plenty of grassland but next to no trees, so that rating is useless. The corresponding grass fire index for Tullamarine is 0. From that you can deduce that there is zero fire danger for Tullamarine which is odd for a day like tomorrow. Ballarat has a rating of 64 and 7 (FFDI and GFDI repectively) which puts it in the severe category. The Dandenongs are only in the very high range.

I'd put my area somewhere between Ballarat and the Dandenongs so around 55 probably which is just into the severe category. A bad day but just your standard TFB day really. That 75mm of rain we had around 8 days ago may come in handy.

As for the Melbourne forecast, IMO it is common sense prevailing, but if you look at the graphical forecast (which I presume has now been updated with the 5pm time stamp on it), it is still only going for 41C in Melbourne. Since that system has been in place there has been no input from forecasters, it has just come straight from the model output. All of a sudden they are going against the graphical forecast and adding a couple of degrees to it. IMO they are erring on the side of caution with DPs. Some very low DPs in the fire estimates compared to what the models are saying. Could end up a bold move and an excellent one by forecasters or could end up an overestimation but anyway it is better to err on the side of caution and forecast the higher end of the scale than risk underestimating.

[Anthony Violi]

If you look at the Water Vapour image Andrew you can see its a very fine line, there is a funnel of dry air through E SA that hopefully will be past us by lunchtime, the rest of the atmosphere is pretty moist relatively.

[Rivergirl]

Yes exactly droughtbreaker and Anthony. I've always wondered why Tullamarine had a FFDI lol. I'm not that worried about tomorrow up in the hills because of the rain we've had and also the ratings. As hillybilly would attest, it's still pretty green up here. The only worry of course is arsonists. They caught that one the other day setting fire to a seat in Sherbrooke forest near us.

[norfolk]

and thats the thing, just because the conditions may not be extreme to some people, a fire bug doesnt know that and just think, heat, wind, fire.

And do those ratings u mention also take into consideration grass fires as well as forest fires? Because all you have around Tullamarine airport is grass fires and despite the greeness around most parts of victoria, the grass is pretty yellow, even around here

[daz930]

Hello everyone,

I'm Darren, a new member of the forum, saying hello for the first time and my first post.

With regard to Tullamarine and Forest Areas, there is Woodlands Historic Park (On Melway Maps 5 and 178) that has a reasonable amount of forested areas, which includes Gellibrad Hill. This is probably why it has a Forest Fire Index Reading.

Cheers, Darren

[norfolk]

Welcome Daz, and yes, Woodlands has had fires in there before.

[Rivergirl]

Welcome to the forum Darren and thanks for the info I didn't mention the GFDI at Tullamarine because it is 0 which is strange. I know it's mainly grass there. I also know a lot of grass isn't still green like ours in drier areas but I'm thankful for our greeness atm as it's pretty terrifying living up here in the hills, living near the north face with arsonists running around on total fire ban days like I said.

[Petros]

Welcome Daz, went to the Prom today, strong easterly wind kept things around 26C from Yarram-Welshpool all day, 28C in the sheltered Tidal river, thats a nice place.

Kept cool here 17.3-30C today.

May as well keep this thread till midnight tomorrow Karl?

AV - thats a ripper avatar you've got there!

[norfolk]

well that surprises me that the grass index is 0.....! Even here in caroline springs we have grass around us and all we need is the grass to catch on fire here to be in danger.

[Blackee]

Back from a long weekend in Portland. Nice and green down there with full dams!!
On driving back the area that most concerned me re.tomorrow, is Linton. Looks to be drying rapidly around there!
The max of 43 is interesting most folks on here, I am personally looking at tomorrow night for a possible 30c overnight minimum!!

[droughtbreaker]

and thats the thing, just because the conditions may not be extreme to some people, a fire bug doesnt know that and just think, heat, wind, fire.

And do those ratings u mention also take into consideration grass fires as well as forest fires? Because all you have around Tullamarine airport is grass fires and despite the greeness around most parts of victoria, the grass is pretty yellow, even around here

Yes, grass fire danger index at Tullamarine equals 0 according to BOM. Only 20% curing of the grassland around there so whilst it may be yellow it's not necessarily dead and therefore is retaining moisture.

[norfolk]

fair enought DB, im no expert I suppose! lol

[droughtbreaker]

Neither am I but someone out there obviously is to come up with the ratings. I have no idea exactly how they come up with grassland curing percentages although I'm pretty sure it would be satellite derived. I know that you can use satellites and aerial photography to classify different types of vegetation using the infra red band.

[Skywalker]

Looks like a real nice first day back at work tommorow, 43!
Just back tracking a bit, Melbourne CBD may have yet to record a 40 degree day this summer, but the BOM's station at Laverton recorded 40.0 degrees on December 23. It was 40 degrees in a few suburbs that day including Caroline Springs!

[droughtbreaker]

BOM have finally updated their graphical forecast but only if you click on an area for the 7 day forecast, they haven't updated the 'colours' yet. Going for 44C in the western suburbs and Geelong and 42C around the basalt plains to the north of Melbourne. It's going for somewhere between 37C and 39C for here. Normally get quite a bit cooler here in fresh NW winds for some reason.

[Karl Lijnders]

Melting here, 33C still with some southerly flow.

Should see temps rise sharply tomorrow morning dependant on the northerly. Temps will fly above 40C as the winds go more NNW.

[Rhys_34]

A record that may be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow is Melbourne's overnight low on Monday night/Tuesday morning, with that hot stagnant airmass still looking around 25C at 850 hpa around 10pm on Monday night and the cool change not due to well after the 9am cut-off point on Tuesday I wouldn't be surprised to see the January record of 28.8C under threat...as long of course we hotter then that 9am tomorrow morning! Alot of factors would have to come into play to break the record, just goes to show how incredibly hot the all-time record of 30.5C back in 1902 was!