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New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Blackie »

Mansfield is going off right now :o :o

3 hours of non stop CC's, crawlers, close strikes....torrential rain we are now over 40 mm since 10pm tonight :o

Rain is still raging down at ridiculously heavy rates.

This is up there in my "storms of a lifetime" and show's no sign of abating...just further development tracking right down over us.

Can't go to bed!
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James
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by James »

anyone still up? - going to see if this next lot does anything here then i am going to bed...
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Dc449 »

Im up, dont think that lot will get me, wont be surprised if i wake up to some thunder later on. I heard about 3 rolls the past hour lying in bed.
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AUS_Twisted
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by AUS_Twisted »

I almost feel like going for a drive up North lol, new cells consistently developing
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by James »

sudden downpour here....

sudden HUGE downpour....gave me a fright the noise!
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Karl Lijnders
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Lake Eildon also recorded 130kmh winds this evening. Wez, any news??

4mm here with thundery showers.

Briefly. The most intensive crawlers I have seen in a long time.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by brayden »

Just got back from a chase around rutherglen way. Got some pics, not worth showing though, most of it was embedded cc's. With the occasionally one that would show itself. All the cells around was great! flashes everywhere from the NW to SW while driving and to see the structures light up was good. Like the cloud build pics Rik ;)

Going for some zzz's now
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"I lycra like that"
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Blackee
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Blackee »

Glad you headed out Brayden.
Rik, Hamlan, Bellarine, Rog, great pics guys!!

Karl, I haven't touched base with any guys up there yet (too early) but given that those winds were present for 20 minutes there will be some damage. Plenty of dead trees up there ready to come down, plenty of live trees that would come down in those winds.

Surprised with Alexandra' rain figures (50mm) given Eildon Fire Tower copped 50mm and Alex was under a strong cell for 90 minutes. Nevertheless, still some flooding to keep the SES lads busy today.

Certainly a huge start to 2010. Back to summer conditions next week which will be nice.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Blackee »

Major Flood Warning for the Buffalo River
Minor Flood Warning for the Buckland River
Issued at 6:15 AM on Saturday the 2nd of January 2010
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

In the 24 hours to 9am Friday rainfall totals ranging up to 66 mm with totals of
65 mm at Mt Hotham, 57 mm at Harrietville, 58 mm at Harris Lane, 56 mm at Mt
Buffalo and 66 mm at Lake Buffalo Downstream were recorded in the Ovens
catchment.

Since 9 am Friday rainfall totals ranging from 10 to 30 mm with isolated totals
of 94 mm at Harris lane and 62 mm at Mt Buffalo have been recorded in the Ovens
catchment at Harris Lane.

Further rainfall totals of 30 mm have been forecast for the ovens catchment
during Saturday.

The rainfall to date has caused major flooding in the Buffalo River at lake
Buffalo downstream and is forecast to cause minor flooding in the Buckland River
at Harris Lane.

Buckland River:
The Buckland River at Harris Lane is at 2.39 metres [minor flood level 2.8
metres]. With forecast rainfall the river is expected to peak around the minor
flood level during Saturday afternoon.

Buffalo River:
The Buffalo River at Lake Buffalo downstream is currently at 5.18 metres [major
flood level 5.0 metres] and rising.

In the interests of community safety the SES suggests following precautions:
* Don't walk, ride or drive through floodwater,
* Don't allow children to play in floodwater,
* Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains, and
* Keep well clear of fallen power lines

Contact the SES on 132 500, if emergency assistance is required.
Current Road and Traffic Information can be obtained from the VicRoads website:
http://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/trafficalerts

Weather Forecast:
Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure over central Victoria will contract eastwards and
clear on Saturday as a cold front moves across southern parts of the State. A
high pressure system will develop over the Bight on Saturday night then move
across Victoria Sunday night and Monday. Another cold front should reach
Victoria later on Tuesday

Forecast for the rest of Saturday
Cloudy. Areas of rain and scattered thunderstorms contracting east and clearing
during the afternoon. Heavy rainfall and local flooding possible this morning
with storms.

Forecast for Sunday
Sunny. Winds south to southwesterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h becoming light
later in the evening.

Next Issue:
The next warning will be issued around 11:30am Saturday 2 January 2010.

Latest River Heights:
Ovens R. at Harrietville 0.98m steady 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
Ovens R. at Bright 1.96m rising 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
Buckland R. at Harris Lane 2.35m falling 06:04 AM SAT 02/01/10
Ovens River at Eurobin 2.84m rising 06:06 AM SAT 02/01/10
Ovens R. at Myrtleford 1.9m steady 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
Buffalo R. at Abbeyard 1.17m falling 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
Buffalo R. D/S Lake Buffalo 5.07m falling 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
Ovens R. at Rocky Point 1.12m steady 05:57 AM SAT 02/01/10
King R. at Cheshunt 0m steady 02:02 AM SAT 02/01/10
Boggy Ck. at Angleside 0.65m steady 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
King R. at Docker Rd Bridge 0.61m steady 04:28 AM SAT 02/01/10
Hurdle Ck. at Bobinawarrah 0.26m steady 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
Fifteen Mile Ck. at Greta South 0.95m steady 05:32 AM SAT 02/01/10
Fifteen Mile Ck. at Glenrowan 0.49m steady 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
Ovens R. at Wangaratta 7.88m rising 05:45 AM SAT 02/01/10
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Dane »

Missed out here, just 2mm's, and not much expected over the next week it seems. Oh well back to watering the garden on Saturday and Tuesday mornings. :grumpy:
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by jmw2207 »

yep got dudded here too.... 0.0mm
Cells forming just to our west all night...another 30km west and would've scored 10-20mm.

Suppose thats the fickle part of thunderstorms.....wins some...lose some
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

6.0mm here over night. Fresh 15.2 deg
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NoRelationToNed
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by NoRelationToNed »

12.9 mm in Kerang to add to the 19.5 we had to yesterday morning.
...from the border of the Mallee and the Northern Country, just south of the Murray.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Anthony Violi »

That was one amazing night!! Karl and I kept watching until 12.30am then i needed sleep and headed to bed...Karl headed home and most likely stayed up till all hours.

Would have to go down as one of the best in the last 20 years..i did post yesterday that it looked as if most of melbourne would miss out and thats exactly what happened. Just luck of the draw, had the trough been another 50kms further West it would have been huge for us. I loved the backbuilding of the system and relentless pounding of those areas, made for an awesome event for the areas that needed it most, and good run off again into to the catchments. Will go up there one day this week and check things out.

And this was the cold air i spoke about last week...EC is great at this. It picks it 240 hours out, and then sort of mixes and matches things but rest assured the cold air comes, and the last 3 months we have had continous upper troughs triggering plenty of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Next week shapes up as a potential doozie, with a substantial amount of tropical moisture associated with the monsoon trough moving Southward, and EC progging another very decent LWT. If the timing is right, could be huge again.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Blackee »

Was always going to be marginal Anthony. BOM's original forecast of storms in the Northern suburbs was pretty close to the mark. Near on 6mm here which is ok, under EC's prediction but I'm glad other areas received a good drop. Lightning & thunder was enough for me last night :D

Almost looking like a heat trough developing late in the week based on GFS run. Not your typical NW infeed of heat. EC throwing up some 33's on Friday and Saturday which points to some high 30's. Off to Portland on Thursday night so I'll be a bit cooler 8-).
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Yarck 80mm, in between Yea and Mansfield from those wondering!
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Blackee
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Blackee »

A lovely drop there ILS, albeit a bit too quick.
Lake Eildon clocked in with 55mm. :thumbsup:
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Blackee »

Minor Flood Warning for the Buffalo River
Minor Flood Warning for the Buckland Rive
r
Issued at 9:08 AM on Saturday the 2nd of January 2010
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

In the 24 hours to 9am Friday rainfall totals ranging up to 66 mm with totals of
65 mm at Mt Hotham, 57 mm at Harrietville, 58 mm at Harris Lane, 56 mm at Mt
Buffalo and 66 mm at Lake Buffalo Downstream were recorded in the Ovens
catchment.

Since 9 am Friday rainfall totals ranging from 10 to 30 mm with isolated totals
of 94 mm at Harris lane and 63 mm at Mt Buffalo have been recorded in the Ovens
catchment.

Further rainfall totals of up to 10 mm have been forecast for the ovens
catchment during Saturday.

The rainfall to date has caused flooding in the Buffalo River at lake Buffalo
downstream and in the Buckland River at Harris Lane.

Owens River upstream of Bright:
The Ovens River at Bright is at 1.96 metres [minor flood level 3.0 metres] and
rising. The river is expected to peak below the minor flood level.

Buckland River:
The Buckland River at Harris Lane is at 2.39 metres [minor flood level 2.8
metres]. The river is expected to peak around the minor flood level during
Saturday afternoon.

Myrtleford:
The Ovens River at Myrtleford is steady at 1.9 metres.

Buffalo River:
The Buffalo River at Lake Buffalo downstream is currently at 3.9 metres [minor
flood level 3.0 metres] and falling. Goulburn Murray Water advise that outflows
are being reduced and will continue to be reduced during Saturday.

Rocky Point:
The Ovens River at Rocky Point is at 1.18 metres and rising. The river is
expected to exceed the minor flood level Saturday afternoon
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Petros
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Petros »

Sniper wrote:Night Petros.
10mm of un-exciting rain for you overnight mate.
.... and indeed 10.5mm in the gauge this morning after the storm complex passed over around 2am. Fair bit of thunder with it for a while.
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Anthony Violi
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Anthony Violi »

Yes Wes it was and as soon as the first storm started to collapse and regenerate you knew it wouldnt make it..what was strange however is the very large cell that developed in the bay and went through Mornington to the west of the apparent trough line, plenty more convection was going up but not going any further..looks like the upper trough was very much from melbourne Northwards as thats where the main activity fired.

At 11.30pm, we were watching the lightning and the radar on our phones and i said to karl, do you want the bad news? Storms were triggering between Castlemaine and Echuca, clearly showing the trough moving East...then we knew it was all over for us. Best storms in 15 years though..
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