Some rain possible with a front & Upper trough Dec 7th-8th

[johnno]

Looks like theres a reasonable chance of a modest event early next week mainly for Southern Victoria at the moment the North may see little with some models lineing up for reasonable falls for the south with an upper trough crossing Southern Victoria early Tuesday 5-20mm isn't out of the question in Southern areas but will have to relook at things again as we get closer.

Like to hear what others think.

[Karl Lijnders]

If the upper level disturbance gains intensity I think we will see an increase in thunderstorm activity over Monday afternoon in the west and state wide Tuesday. Areas of rain look quite a good chance too.

I suspect a better event for the southern parts of VIC.

Also watchout for residual moisture coming down for late next week which looks to present more thundery type weather.

[johnno]

I haven't read EE rainfall yet but looking at the lastest EC surface and upper pattern for Tuesday it looks to have rapmed up the surface system/Upper trough in my book

[Jake Smethurst]

I am not sure yet about Tuesday for Western Vic. EC does look good for central/eastern Victoria and no doubt some good totals, however just scattered showers for the southwest of the state and even less IMO for the Wimmera and Mallee. GFS does not look that flash for rainfall totals at this stage. One of the big things is wind IMO with a fair bit of it likely to get going over the period. Still of course models are sorting the system out so things are still likely to change, and I will re-evaluate the system with all 00z updates as we get closer.

[Anthony Violi]

I like it. Good upper level disturbance again which as we know makes all the difference. EC seems to have relocated the low as a bigger cut off and further North tonight interacting more with some residual moisture karl mentioned. Havent checked the other models yet as i just got home from another 14 hour day...

beyond that EC is seriously out of control, with further periods of cut offs and Sw wind streams and a cyclone and the slackest pressure gradient you will see and a LWT appearing at the end...so i would say its going to be an interesting 10 days!

[Jake Smethurst]

I do agree it does look good for central/eastern Vic, but my post above was reflecting western Vic where my concerns are for not as much rainfall. Thought I would just clear that up since I was confusing myself in the above post.

[johnno]

I think you be right Jake IF you largely miss out on Tuesday you will catch up the rest of the week you always do well in a Strong Westerly/SW stream with front after front hence why you had a wet winter down there this year especially in August so whatever you miss out Tuesday you will make up the rest of the week and next weekend and catch up to us and probably even pass us again by then interms of rainfall totals if EC is right

[johnno]

Jake have you actually checked how much rainfall EC has for your area Tuesday? My eyes popped out of my head a minute ago it has 20mm for me here, 32mm for Ballarat, 43mm for Geelong & 6mm for Bendigo so to me this suggests more of a Southern Vic rain event which I have suggested a few times already in here over the past couple of days and seems to be it has good falls and better falls the further SW you go so my guess is the rainband will be good through your area as well at least 15-20mm if not more given perhaps the peak of the rain may be near Geelong or the Otways (going by EC) I can't see this rainband missing you all together now I'm convinced of it now. Latest NOGAPS also has some serious rain over Southern Vic Tuesday with falls of 20-30mm through large areas in the south so EC isn't alone on this one.

[Jake Smethurst]

I actually have not checked the rain from EC, not sure where to find that information ? I think the link has been posted up a few times before but I have always lost it. Silly me. I just tend to look at the official ECMWF site. Work out conditons that way.

But, if EC is saying that then I have read the model wrong. I will check things out closer tomorrow. Remember I stuff forecasts up sometimes. And there is no doubt that I am actually liking later next week for my area, it is looking good. I think I mentioned that earlier this week.

[Karl Lijnders]

Well EC shows significant rainfall about Tuesday and will come on board moreso with the sytem Thursday into Friday aswell. That looks to be quite significant with strong onshore winds, a band of rain and thunderstorms with showery air to follow. Remember the extra warmth of the bay and peak diurnal heating potential adding to shower intensity.

Moisture in the westerlies is not too bad either judging by cloud sequences over the past few days.

I suspect a shower and storm opportunity starting over the west Monday afternoon.

[Rhino]

GFS seem to be on to it aswell, with 25mm+ through a far area of the state on Tue. Will have to wait for next update for some sort of confirmation but looking better than yesterday, especially nth of the ranges. OCF not looking that flash for here though, possibly 5mm for Tue, but I'd take that. Get out and mow those lawns by the looks.

Rhino.

[Jake Smethurst]

Thanks DJ

Is it just me or is the latest EC going by that website pushing the rain through on mostly Monday ?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

If you can just get them to hold off with the rain till after 5pm Monday PLZ.
The kids have The Wiggles LIVE and they are taking public transport powered by mums on foot with prams.

[droughtbreaker]

Rain should be on Tuesday so Monday should be alright IMO.

[Jake Smethurst]

Thats what I have been saying for a while DJ. Southwest Victoria missing out mostly on the rain areas. But as John mentioned yesterday and as we usually do, we will go well later in the week with the strong SW airstream. Central and eastern districts will do quite well out of the early next week rainfall at this stage as I mentioned yesterday, and I am hopeing I am wrong about SW Vic missing out on Tuesday.

Won tennis today, got rained on twice, but no cancellations. Partly cloudy weather otherwise with that sun very warm.

[Jake Smethurst]

Latest BoM forecast upgrading their forecasts. I feel a little more confident for rain areas across the southwest now, but still am not sure on it. Central/eastern parts looking like they will still get a good drop.

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking like this system is becoming more a rain event rather than thunderstorms. Looks to be a good provider though with onshore winds, cool temps and plenty of middle level cloud about producing widespread moderate rain. Anticipate about 20-30mm across Melbourne which would be a good follow up.

Middle to late week also holding potential for some showers/rain and cold air thunderstorms with the extra daytime heat interacting with some colder air aloft supporting more decent convection. These situations can deliver 20-30mm alone in the eastern suburbs in the SW stream off the bay.

[Karl Lijnders]

EC gives us around 30mm here on Tuesday alone and up to 25mm for late week with a more colder SW wind developing so that would be useful. That gets us close to our average here for the month

[Anthony Violi]

I still like it..hopefully all going well will end up being much cooler than average this month to balance out last months shambles.

Looking good for decent rain, widespread 20mm should be a good get. And quite cold, notice EC backtraking their temps as we suggested yesterday. Could be some quite good stream showers later in the week...and the mind boggles after that with a Low over Darwin and every reason to think that moisture will feed into the longwave trough.

[Petros]

Yesterday 1-5mm was the best prospect for us out this way for Tuesday. Now GFS and LAPS are progging 15mm or so - that would very much help preserve some of last weekends moisture out this way if true. Our golf course has turned from white to green again in the space of a week, but looking stressed again today (like I was with 2 lost balls and only 31pts). The TWC 5 day model shows an inch of rain here for Tuesday - does anyone take any notice of this model????
Today we had another dry change(well at least a strenghtening of the westerlies) to add to Thursdays disappointment. So even a drip on Tuesday would be nice out this way.