The Australian Weather Forum

I know we kinda just got out of Summer and just getting out of the storm season. But winter is only just around the corner and I am hoping for a bumper snow season for 2010.

Predictions of the Snow season for 2010? Ultimate blast? or a lull in snow activity?

I'd love a bumper of a bumper, nice and early in the season. I'm not what you'd call a regular snow bunny, but I does loves da cold

Good morning all!!

We're baaack!

The first outlook for the season is up and running here (we've been doing this every winter for the past few years)
AUSSKY Victorian Snow Outlook written by Clyve
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/current.htm

Looking forward to a good year - we've had the rain - now all we need is the snow....

For those of you who like to track the cold air as it moves across Victoria, we have 2 online weather stations in Trentham (700 & 705m - soon to be 3)
Groves St, Trentham - 700m
http://trentham.bsch.au.com/FrogIs02/Cu ... ge_Pro.htm
and just on the NE outskirts of town at 705m
Gunyah Bend, NE of Trentham
http://trentham.bsch.au.com/GunyahBe/Cu ... ge_Pro.htm

You will notice differences (sometimes significant) in windspeed, rainfall and temperature between the sites even though they are only a km apart (Groves St is further southwest)....after running the stations for more than a year and checking and cross checking, the sites really can be quite different.....

Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jane

great news Jane. I have enjoyed your snow outlook and discussion for the last few winters. Thanks for doing it again this year.

As the stormchasers site host went into liquidation without warning and I'm currently organising shifting everything...I'll load Clyve's alpine discussion and outlook here...will let you know when the site is back up again at a new address... http://www.aussky.com.au

VICTORIAN ALPINE WEATHER DISCUSSION UPDATE 2/6/10.

OVERVIEW.
Not much in the way of snow for the Victoria Alpine areas this coming week....A broad area of high pressure appears will linger to Friday then a weak trough passes east on Saturday...maybe a few showers with that then another stronger high builds in the Bight Sunday shifting winds to the southeast. No major rain or snow bearing weather systems appear. From Sunday mainly fine conditions prevail to the middle of next week (Wednesday 9/6)....Never mind take the opportunity to go bush walking or bird watching instead....

DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS.

WEDNESDAY 2/6/10.
Early mist and frost then a fine day except for patchy highland fog or cloud, light winds....MIN TEMPS -1 to +2. MAX TEMPS .

THURSDAY 3/6/10.
Early mist and morning frost then a fine day except for patchy highland mist at times, light winds. MIN TEMPS -3 to 0c MAX TEMPS 3 to 6c.

FRIDAY 4/6/10.
Early mist and morning frost then a fine day with light winds tending northwest. MIN TEMPS -3 to 0c MAX TEMPS 3 to 6c.

SATURDAY 5/6/10.
Increasing cloud after a cold morning with frost, isolated showers a risk later or overnight into Sunday mainly in the south, risk of sleet or wet snow flurries above 1700M later. Northwest winds occasionally fresh shifting southerly overnight. MIN TEMPS -2 to 0c MAX TEMPS 2 to 4c.

SUNDAY 6/6/10.
Areas of highland mist and isolated drizzle or showers mainly in the south, a few flurries about the high peaks in the morning (1700M+). A few sunny breaks in northern areas by afternoon, patchy highland fog persisting in southern areas. Fresh south/southeast winds becoming general. MIN TEMPS -1 to +2c MAX TEMPS 2 to 4c.

MONDAY 7/6/10.
Areas of highland mist mainly southern areas, patchy highland frost in the morning, then a partly cloudy day with occasionally fresh southeast winds. MIN TEMPS -3 to 0c MAX TEMPS 2 to 4c.

TUESDAY 8/6/10.
Early mist and morning frost then a fine day with light winds. MIN TEMPS -4 to -1c MAX TEMPS 2 to 4c.

WEDNESDAY 9/6/10.
Early mist and morning frost then a fine day although freshening north winds later and increasing highland mist to follow. MIN TEMPS -3 to 0c MAX TEMPS 2 to 4c.

VICTORIAN ALPINE WEATHER DISCUSSION UPDATE 5/6/10.

OVERVIEW.
A trough passes across the Alpine areas of Victoria through Saturday (5/6), a post trough colder southerly airstream will affect all of the alpine areas from later Saturday into Sunday, scattered showers will accompany this trough with snow showers above 1600M later reaching 1200M overnight into Sunday morning. Most snow activity will be light and affect mainly southern areas of the alpine region. Expect very cold nights from early Sunday to Monday morning. A more substantial trough and cold front is anticipated for later Tuesday to Wednesday 8/6 and 9/6 bring a burst of deeper southerly air in its wake, a reasonable mid and upper cold wave also accompanies this system. From Tuesday increasing NW winds will become galeforce ahead of a squally southwest or south change, a band of rain/sleet will turn to general snow later Tuesday and snow showers through Wednesday tapering off later Wednesday to isolated flurries and cold southerly winds for Thursday and Friday, severe overnight frosts are expected from the middle of next week. Snow line may descend to sub alpine levels through Wednesday (700 to 1000M)

DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS.

SATURDAY 5/6/10.
Areas of highland low cloud and fog becoming general, strengthening northwest or west winds shifting southwest or south later in the day, showers spreading from western areas but mainly affecting southern parts, sleet and snow above 1600M descending to nearer 1200M later in the day or overnight. Overnight frost, ice developing on highland roads later in the day and overnight, increasing wind chill. MIN TEMPS 0 to 2°C MAX TEMPS 2 to 3°C lowering to -3 to 0°C later in the day.

SUNDAY 6/6/10.
Areas of highland fog and isolated flurries, snow flurries mainly southern areas, overnight and early frost, then partly misty/cloudy with sunny breaks developing especially northern parts, fresh occasionally gusty south winds moderating later, more overnight frosty tonight. MIN TEMPS -4 to -2°C MAX TEMPS 0 to 2°C.

MONDAY 7/6/10.
Overnight and morning frost, patchy highland mist mainly southern areas, south winds becoming lighter, sunny breaks by afternoon. Overnight frost redeveloping. MIN TEMPS -5 to -3°C MAX TEMPS 1 to 4°C.

TUESDAY 8/6/10.
Strengthening northwest winds, increasing cloud and highland fog, drizzle becoming general and freezing above 1550M. Showers spreading from the west and affecting all alpine areas by later in the day or at night. Snow above 1500M lowering to nearer 1100M later or overnight some moderate of heavy falls a risk. Increasing wind chill, ice developing on highland roads and patchy ice a risk on sub alpine roads overnight. Winds shifting southwest or south later or overnight and remaining gusty. MIN TEMPS -2 to +1°C MAX TEMPS 1 to 3°C lowering progressively through the day to nearer -3 to 0°C by evening.

WEDNESDAY 9/6/10.
Strong and gusty southwest or south winds, scattered snow showers/freezing drizzle or graupel, areas of highland fog. High wind chill on exposed alpine ridges and peaks, extensive road ice possibly to sub alpine areas in the morning. Sunny breaks later in northern parts, general overnight severe frost. MIN TEMPS -6 to -4°C MAX TEMPS -3 to -1°C.

THURSDAY 10/6/10.
A few flurries mainly southern areas, general highland mist (freezing). Fresh but moderating southwest or south winds .General frost in the morning and a weak thaw in the afternoon, more frost overnight into Friday. Patchy ice on highland roads. MIN TEMPS -6 to -4°C MAX TEMPS -1 to 1°C.

(website should be back up in a day or so - relaoding the website currently)

Nice..so far so good and hoping for more this month before I hit Hotham in 5 weeks.

So far Hotham has kicked started their snow making and made over 700 cubic meters of the white stuff! Hopefully thell get a good start base out of it on the runs before the real stuff lands.

Shouldn't be all that warm the ground. It has been freezing there for the last 4 days and not much sun. Some snow showers are possible tonight.

Anyhow up to 25cm @ Baw Baw but that will wash away pretty fast with showers returning over the weekend. 10-20cm over northern resorts with a much better chance of seeing that remain on the ground into the weekend albeit hard packed by Sunday!!

10cm of fresh snow currently..JOY JOY JOY!!

This week's AusSnow outlook by Clyve can be found here...
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/current.htm

OVERVIEW: A strong high passes through Victoria on Monday then drifts to the Tasman Sea Tuesday, from Tuesday freshening northwest/north winds will increase cloud cover across the Alpine regions and then for the remainder of the week occasionally strong northwest winds will persist as a broad trough passes through the mountains Wednesday followed by further troughs and cold fronts to next weekend. From Tuesday isolated showers will become more general from Wednesday to next weekend, the airmass although cold is marginal for snow but a reasonable probability of snow exists mainly above 1400/1600M lowering to near 1300M later in the week.

for daily outlooks,see http://www.stormchasers.au.com/current.htm

Quite a good chance of seeing our first major dump of the season later this week and into the weekend with a series of cold fronts injecting cold SW winds and showers into the region.

Southern resorts are likely to see about 20-30cm at the moment and northern resorts 15-25cm. But if a low pressure system winds up we could well double those estimates so plenty to look forward too at the moment.

Gorgeous conditions up there today.

Still looking okay and for next week as well with a system possibly going to produce some large dumps.

Yeah there will be next to no snow below 1700m at the moment with 100mm of rain up along the divide overnight.

Next week could see replenish falls of 20-30cm.

Our AusSnow summary for the Victorian alpine areas by Clyve

OVERVIEW.
A slow moving active trough passes through the Alpine areas of Victoria Friday night with extensive rain/sleet and wet snow above 1600M, this trough weakens and recedes into the Tasman Sea through Saturday and Sunday. A weakish ridge moves into Victoria for later Saturday and Sunday ahead of another trough and low pressure system for Monday and Tuesday, this system is associated with cold air so most precipitation will be of snow and a good potential for heavy falls....snow showers then for Wednesday and next Thursday tapering off Friday and the next weekend.


and the daily Victorian alpine outlooks are here...
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/current.htm

Looking abysmal yet again for the snow season. More rain next weekend will do damage to the little snow there is. Yet another disaster if weather patterns don't change quick smart. Despite a significantly colder air mass on average compared to what we saw last winter we are still completely devoid of any noteworthy outbreak of cold air whatsoever. Snow has not fallen at all on the top of Mount Macedon this year (except maybe some flurries that didn't settle), even last year in that record breaking winter there was one snow day down to around 900m locally and that was in June so not late season at all. All I am seeing is more deep northerly air flow ahead of fronts and then ridging behind it with W/SW winds that are too mild for snow to lower levels.

Great for rainfall on the ranges but unfortunately it is just that, rain, because it all falls in the moist and relatively mild northerlies ahead of and with the front.

Plenty of time for patterns to change, after all it is still only early July, but gee it must be disheartening for snow sport enthusiasts out there and the entire ski industry.
I am fearful that we are getting closer and closer to the day that Europeans and Americans can gloat that 'it doesn't snow in Australia' and not be showing ignorance.

It is telling that we are almost half way through winter and this thread is still on its first page. I bet there is a lot of ski gear going cheap on ebay these days
I was talking to my dentist on Friday and he lives on Mt Macedon at about 700m and he said that there was a 1cm settled fall a couple of weeks ago, in the middle of the night but gone by morning. Thats our best effort for the season so far.

Next year will be better. I was watching television the other night and some American meteorologists looking long-term are indicating that the globe will begin to cool. That would go well for the snow season in coming years.

It's this video here too which was posted by another member a little while ago.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/103968 ... ldwide.asp

Well we will certainly find out when we get there but we aren't in next year yet.

I will say that away from man made snow areas, the snow fields are not doing great with rainy weather up to this week.

Could be a bit of snow come Tuesday night. WZ forecasting heavy snow in alpine areas Wednesday.

Well I can tell you there was not much natural snow covering Mt Hotham over the weekend, and I know the locals are screaming for snow to hit the alps.

It has been cold enough up there but no massive dumps of snow, and the rain over the weekend did not help with washing the snow away.

Don't worry Madmel by thurs afternoon there will be smiles on everyones face