The Australian Weather Forum

Extended GFS is hinting at some good rains after April 8:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html

That looks good Strato! Extended ACCESS doesn't look as nice though. I can't see the magic turnaround just yet ... hopefully when the El Nino becomes more washed out and we LWT can move near the region.

Well if this morning's GFS progs come to fruition, central Vic areas will have had around 100mm of rain by mid month!

Pretty patchy rain with yesterday's system.

Southern Vic did alright. But in Northern Vic the drought rolls on. Nothing on the horizon for the next week or two either. Just big blocking Highs.

Next weekend beginning to look more interesting for a substantial event.
EC, AccessG and GFS all going for some sort of trough stretching down from Queensland and linking with a cut-off low which forms just to our west. This system is then cradled by a high to our south and sits over S/E Australia through several days.
If it comes off it could be "the big one"..... or I could just be fantasizing.

Astonishing downgrades all round for this weekend, if they carry on like this the rest of this month will end up dry!

Well at least El Nino appears to be over - we're now on La Nina watch! http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Latest ACCESS & EC now looking good for us (west central Vic) around this time next week...

Hmm, just looks like same old, same old to me Gordon. Models programming big rains at the end of their run, only for it to disappear as time goes by - gets very boring to be honest. I guess if they do it often enough (and they usually do) then they'll be right one day. Sorry, but being wrong nine times out of ten on a regular basis doesn't cut it with me I'm afraid. Squillions of dollars worth of cutting edge computers should be able to do better if you ask me.

I know what you mean Geoff. Still, this thread is somewhere to dream . At least the charts continue to show some signs of life for the 21st or thereabouts. With the abrupt change in the SOI, I'm trying to stay optimistic...

Gordon wrote:I know what you mean Geoff. Still, this thread is somewhere to dream . At least the charts continue to show some signs of life for the 21st or thereabouts. With the abrupt change in the SOI, I'm trying to stay optimistic...

Yep, if we go into a strong LaNina with a -ve IOD (as most of the climate models suggest), then I remain hopeful. I don't see a repeat of 2010-2011 (a once in a lifetime wet spell), but I reckon by late winter or early spring the rivers and creeks will be running. Just got to fill all of the empty dams around here first....

Plenty of rain around for most of Vic at the moment, but I'm getting increasingly interested in the big Low progged for early/mid next week, which GFS has been particularly keen on for a few runs now. It's deep, it's very close and has a good deal of very cold air wrapped up in it. It also looks to hang around for a few days, so could be some substantial falls around. Low level snow could be in the mix, but much too early to be confident yet....

Some astonishing looking charts being thrown up by the models for the last week of August. Going to be widespread flooding if it falls into place, and could be the wettest week for a long, long time for many parts of S/E Australia..

Still looking good on this mornings models for next week, with a major low over S/E Australia during the second half of the week, bringing in some very cold air to follow. EC has 22mm here next Thursday and a max of only 5c.

Interesting!!! .....

It's hard to justify talking about what could happen next given the latest trend in some of the models (i.e. the latest major low event), but I just can't help myself. Not surprisingly the models are diverging from this weekend.

ACCESS shows a cut-off briefly forming during Saturday west of Tasmania and delivering a frontal system through Victoria later in the day and leaving the state under a southwesterly flow on Sunday. Falls in this scenario currently indicated between 5-20mm, especially for southern and eastern parts of the state.

On the other hand, the US model has nothing on Saturday/Sunday and brings us slowly into a northwesterly flow before a system on Tuesday/Wednesday.

ACCESS also has this system but not until Wednesday and Thursday.

Lots of variation in the models, still something to talk about

Thought I would just create a new topic for the summer, that discusses potential upcoming weather events that could lead to a new thread and assist keeping the current threads on topic.

Here is an interesting one to kick things off.....I'm hoping this model set up disappears quite quickly in the next few runs and it probably will but.......that is a scary set up

GFS run 14122016 00Z - WA cyclone > becomes an ex TC and pushes into the bight on Dec 27 > sends gale force gusting north westerlies with low to mid 40's surface temps and under 20% humidity into SA and Vic on Dec 27th - 28th. There are many different parameters you can look at this model run which I'll leave up to you but basically it sets up a code red bush fire scenario if good rain are not had before hand. One to keep an eye on for the next few days.

We were hoping to camping in the bush somewhere over the Christmas break. Might aim to go where there is plenty of water instead....

StratoBendigo wrote:We were hoping to camping in the bush somewhere over the Christmas break. Might aim to go where there is plenty of water instead....

It's certainly an interesting set up but it hinges on that possible cyclone......which have a mind of their own. Needs quite a few more runs to really take it serious but Christmas certainly looks warm so near the water might be a safe bet