Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[Geoff]

I agree Andrew, the increasing mobility and weakening of the big highs is encouraging, and each cold pool is bringing progressively colder air with it (as you would expect at this time of year). I think the prospects for a proper winter are looking good at the moment.

[Rivergirl]

Anyone want to start the next thread.

[Geoff]

Anyone want to start the next thread.

Ha! Ha! There'll be a few of us out there wanting to Robyn, just waiting for one or two more model runs to get a better idea of when this next cold outbreak is going to start, and just how significant it may be.
Looks to me to be a bit ordinary at the moment, but it's a fair way off yet.

[Rivergirl]

OK thanks Geoff. I thought that may be the case and with my lack of knowledge I didn't want to start one yet either

[adon]

over on WZ forums, ROM has said the SAM has dipped in to the negs which he thinks results in a better synoptic situation for rain aprox 10 days after the SAM goes negative. Here's hoping he is right.

FOr those who have not gone into it, a negative SAM value results in southern weather systems moving furter north so(hopefully) any cold fronts coming through will be stronger and have more interaction with tropical air/moisture

[Geoff]

Yes adon I saw that post by ROM, fingers crossed for you up there! Don't know if you saw this chart I posted in the other thread showing the rainfall distribution for the last month in Vic, here it is again; http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... th&area=vc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Just goes to show how the fronts have not been strong enough to penetrate very far north, and there have been no northwest cloudbands for you yet, hopefully soon though.

[adon]

EC and GFS showing a low spinning up in the bight late next week. Fingers crossed it holds. I like EC better as the low looks to begin forming a little closer than GFS

[Anthony Violi]

Any rainfall deficencies we have seen for most of the Se states are about to be eroded this weekend, with interest.

[Geoff]

A bit of deja vu about the look of AccessG and EC, with a trough coming down from tropical Queensland into SA and then forming a new cut-off low which moves s/e into Vic around next Sunday-Tuesday. If this scenario plays out it would almost certainly be the break the Mallee and Wimmera folk have been needing for so long.

[adon]

Yeah EC looks nice but the YR.no site looks a little optimistic to me. However saying that would not knock it back!

[Geoff]

Adon, YR(Norwegian) uses EC as its model, hence both have totally lost interest in tonight's run, AccessG also has lost the rain. GFS on the other hand has gone bananas with widespread rain over all of Vic from a cut-off low, and UNISYS also still has it. So models are divided and struggling again just like they did with this last one. Long way to go, so don't lose hope yet!

[Geoff]

AccessG back onboard with GFS & UNISYS, all have a major low cradled by a high pressure ridge south of Tassie.
EC the only outlier this morning, so the odds swinging back in favour of another big rain event for Vic, possibly more widespread than the last one.

[stratospear]

We look to be heading into a more zonal Westerly/North-westerly flow next week. Probably nothing substantial of note next week, but hopefully the LWT moves into this neck of the woods afterwards and drags down some NW cloudbands mixed in with some decent cold fronts. Hopefully this will kick-start the winter crops in NW Vic.

P.S. Northwesters might help Gippsland dry out a bit.

[johnno]

Latest 00z GFS starting to hint that cos of this set up rainfall will increase this week for those who have laregly missed out the past couple of months.. On and north of the ranges could see some handy/decent falls this week as well as some of the Northern plains so hang in there folks next week is a better set up for you guys

[Karl Lijnders]

A significant signal for rainfall is building on the model runs for SE Australia in the coming week or two with signs of a large low pressure system, interacting with tropical moisture and cold air, combining to produce the biggest inland rainfall of the season thus far.

Very early days at this stage, but if it comes off it will take care of cropping in northern areas of Victoria for the season and allow enough water to fall into those regions that need it most.

Sadly there is a signature for heavy rainfall for areas of C and E Victoria with a low likely to wind up in the region. If this is the case, then anything over 50mm in the regions currently under flood, could see even more intense flooding.

NE Victoria also set to see some large rainfall totals in an event like this with upsliding NW winds and topographic effect.

Stay tuned for further discussion on this event.

[crikey]

Just had an OMG moment..
The animated world sat pic indicating a strong N/west tropical infeed n/west of n/west WA and is sourced from a very substantial moisture supply in the asian tropics
That moisture in-feed is being directed by an upper high l would imagine .

The MJO currently active in the Indian ocean to support moisture availability in the equatorial Indian ocean.. Oooh OMG
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Can see what Karl was posting above..models predicting this potentially significant rain event to come.
The mind boggles at the thought if a strong SAM comes into play as well and cold pools interact.
A potential interesting JULY winter ahead.. what say all?

Have already penciled this in as a great weather watch ..
Looking back in this thread there is some good accounts of similar set up for winter

[stratospear]

The Elders weather 28 day rain forecast has picked up on this and has a high chance (>75%) of rain for pretty much EVERY SINGLE DAY for the next 4 weeks for most of Victoria.
Might as well build a boat.

Meanwhile, much of India's monsoon rains have failed to eventuate this year and a catastrophe is looming :
http://www.businessinsider.com/indias-m ... ter-2012-7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Karl Lijnders]

That trend from Elders continues through this month and into early October so there are fast moving fronts and troughs coming through the next 4 weeks.

Looking at the first substantial inland trough producing showers and storms over inland NSW and QLD over the coming week and this is likely to have an impact on Northern Victoria later in the weekend into next week ahead of the next front from SA.

[Jake Smethurst]

Looking interesting Karl!

Good to see models starting to really indicate more moisture from the Indian next week and a more influential trough type pattern. Monday and Tuesday next week could, at this early stage, be quite stormy for SE Australia. One to watch!

[Karl Lijnders]

Models playing with the idea of having stormy conditions inland over much of inland Oz in the coming part of early next week. I think it needs to be watched.

Easterly winds finally will bring widespread showers and storms to QLD, NSW and ACT over the latter part of the weekend and into early next week. In that situation we should stay relatively dry and mild through Victoria with increasing moisture coming down on the NE winds from Monday.

There is a chance that as the high passes through the south of Tasmania, a trough will anchor over the state and start to trigger showers and afternoon thunderstorms across the inland of Victoria. This focus should be chiefly on and north of the divide.

The focus could increase further in response to a strong cold front from the west mid next week which could spark a major rain and storm outbreak across the state. Could be heavier falls if a low winds up which is a chance. Very strange synoptic and it is very messy so hard to call what is going to happen.

At this stage, some storms is likely to be a feature over much of Central and Eastern Victoria early next week.