Looking very interesting come later in the weekend into early next week. I tend to think this system will begin to take shape a little quicker than first thought with the mid level disturbance off WA really starting to develop. That will be an important source of moisture if it can get down here come Sunday for some showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Mid next week is when it really starts to get a bit exciting, loads of moisture being pumped into the easterly flow and it should advect south with the northerly winds into Victoria. A sharpening upper trough over eastern areas should provide the focus for showers and storms, with areas of rain likely over the Alps.
If a low can also come in from the NW then the whole complex could slow down and become a blocking feature which could spell big rainfall for some parts of the state or SE Australia.
Karl Lijnders wrote:Looking very interesting come later in the weekend into early next week. I tend to think this system will begin to take shape a little quicker than first thought with the mid level disturbance off WA really starting to develop. That will be an important source of moisture if it can get down here come Sunday for some showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Mid next week is when it really starts to get a bit exciting, loads of moisture being pumped into the easterly flow and it should advect south with the northerly winds into Victoria. A sharpening upper trough over eastern areas should provide the focus for showers and storms, with areas of rain likely over the Alps.
If a low can also come in from the NW then the whole complex could slow down and become a blocking feature which could spell big rainfall for some parts of the state or SE Australia.
Looking promising.
Very encouraging news Karl, thankyou so much for that... hope it comes off as expected, and hope this is just the beginning for the 2012-2013 Storm Season
Out of curiosity, how good are our chances for severe thunderstorm activity next week across Victoria?
I would say 50/50 over the northern part of the state with the broad area of instability but if a much more defined feature comes into play, ie a surface low or strong cold front, then the chances will sky rocket for the entire state.
Models are wobbling around this morning. They look encourgaing, EC trying to work out what the hell is going on and UK still looks good
Still a messy outlook. Not a great deal of guideance other than to say showers and storms look good around the ranges and west tomorrow, Mon/Tue. Then should ramp up across the state Thu/Fri where some big falls could occur if a low pressure system winds up.
Otherwise keeping a close eye on it here for the chance of flooding in the NE and Central areas as river basins are the wettest they have been in 40 years!
Something might be brewing for around Oct 8. Access-G is suggesting a very deep inland (heat) trough to develop over South Australia and then drop a fair bit of rain over Vic afterwards as it interacts with colder air from the South. One to watch and potentially very stormy - even if GFS isn't on-board yet.
nafets wrote:One to watch stratosphere, although not looking like much substantial rain in this coming week, with some warm temperatures especially on the 4th.
I'm intrigued by the first appearance in quite a long time of cloud over NW & Central Australia atm. There is moisture in the mix, but we'll have to wait and see where it goes. EC suggesting around 16mm for Melbourne early/mid next week with North-easterly winds....
Models firming on a disturbance from the West interacting with a surface trough from SA Saturday with a developing low just North or NE of us by Saturday Night or Sunday. UK, EC and ACCESS are on it now.
I think this could be a protracted period of moderate rainfall for the entire state, bar the very far east. Be especially good for northern and western areas, firming up crops that have been managed better through the drier spells.
20-30mm likely along the divide and perhaps pushing into Melbourne, but will take a few days to sort out.
Actually I expect the best of the rainfall to be in the East especially far East as we go into SElys and the low winds up off the South NSW Coast but looks likely for a half decent drink hopefully for alot of the state this time round. Still 4 days ago so wait and see game again.
Anyone seen the SAM lately? Gone into Negative and is expected to take an even bigger nose dive over the next week or two, biggest dive for many months and interesting models are starting to throw some interesting scenarios next week
Well next week shapes as one of the bigger events of the spring with widespread humidity and low pressure dominating the region - could see falls in excess of 100mm accummulated over many regions of the SE regions of Australia and extending into NSW.
Showers and storms likely from Sunday over inland areas and gradually becoming more widespread as we go through Monday and tending extensive come Tuesday and Wednesday with and following a cooler change as the trough moves NE.
I think flood warnings for the NE ranges are not unreasonable but it could dump in some places - November average rainfalls in a day.
Definitely something I will be putting a close eye on, especially come Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the long-wave trough. EC has a large swathe of 15c+ DPs developing inland Australia on Monday and spreading SE on Tuesday. NT and northern SA should light up light a christmas tree.
Could be our first big rain for a few months.
Nathan Morris 2013 Rainfall
Jan - 3.8mm
Feb - 27.0mm
Mar - 0.0mm
YTD - 30.8mm
Starting to like the look of next week ACCESS, GFS and EC all push a front with a low in the bight that goes South of us then the upper trough and surface trough will stall somewhere over SE Australia and strengthen in response to a pool of cold air later next week over the Bight and may sink South again.. This has potential.
Nearly all extended model runs are indicating for Victoria at least, a fairly benign and drier pattern to emerge, for the next 2 weeks. It only looks like a few weak frontal system or troughs will influence the states weather, with heat building to our north. Will keep an eye on things hopefully not too much of an extended dry spell.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
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Power Storm wrote:Nearly all extended model runs are indicating for Victoria at least, a fairly benign and drier pattern to emerge, for the next 2 weeks. It only looks like a few weak frontal system or troughs will influence the states weather, with heat building to our north. Will keep an eye on things hopefully not too much of an extended dry spell.
Well here we are about 10 days later and still it looks dry, so the models got that one right. I do see a glimmer of hope from at least a couple of the models for the last few days of November, with the chance of tropical moisture finally making its way down here with a warm thundery breakdown, but still a long way out - we live in eternal hope!
This has been an exceptionally dry and uneventful spring to the point where I've temporarily lost interest to a degree. If it wasn't for the wet winter and the relatively cool conditions we would be suffering from mild drought conditions again. As it stands the soil moisture is still reasonable.
This week looks terribly dry according to pretty much all of the models. We have a couple of troughs set to pass through with no rainfall progged whereas during the la Nina conditions of the past few years we would have been looking at scattered to widespread showers and storms. It just goes to show how quickly things can change.
I am confident that we should snap out of this 'mini drought' by early next month as there are now signs of the oceans around northern Aus starting to warm and we are now seeing the first major storm outbreak for SE QLD which has suffered even worse than us from the dry spring conditions.