Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

[hillybilly]

A thread for the coming long long warm and dry spell. Looks like this could well last to about Easter, particularly for the mainland. Some showers possible for Tasmania and perhaps coastal Victoria, particularly around the start of next week.

Temperatures will be way above average most days, and could well see records for days above thresholds. It doesn’t look like getting overly hot but it looks persistent.

[Macedonian]

Sounds like hell. Hate late season warmth, especially when it has been so dry. It will likely wreck any potential for good autumn colours in the garden.

[hillybilly]

Progs suggest it might break down in about a week for the mainland southeast, but then another big high for Easter. Tasmania is a bit more mixed with possible rain on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile really warm week basically everywhere.

Seeing really ugly drought photos from western Victoria and South Australia. The drought indices are now showing many areas are having about their worst annual drought on record and temperatures have been record warm so not good Hopefully some major relief soon.

[hillybilly]

Far too warm across the southeast today. Temps into the low 30’s in parts of Victoria, mid 30’s in SA and 26-28C around Hobart. Typically running about 10C above average.

Heats gonna roll on for the mainland. Will be plenty of runs of days records broken by the end of this. Tasmania escapes a fair bit of it and will see some rain.

[QldTwister]

Melb warmer than Brisbane at 930pm at night in April thats gotta be very rare

Wow crazy week ahead 28 to 32c for much of Vic with Sat to Wed hottest, warm start for easter weekend before cool change but no soaking rain might have to wait till May but even then who knows drought rolls on crazy times so sad for those in SA and W n N Vic that need 30 to 50mm every week for 3 months.

[stevco123]

Seems like all of southern Vic is trending towards drought, the past 2 years. I suppose timing is right for a drought too. It's been 'wet' since 2011 (so 14 years). Previous to that, the millennium drought lasted for about 15 years (from 1996ish to 2011).

[StratoBendigo]

No relief at all. Despairing.

[Lighthouse]

Yes, unbelievable actually, Melbourne’s April average is 20C, looking at least six days in a row over 27C. Just on due for a drought, while it is true lots of Oz has had a wet period, it’s definitely not the case for Victoria’s south-west where we’ve had more dry years than wet. In fact, nearly every record dry month in Aireys has been set in the past decade. Take April for example, the record driest month was in 2018 with just 5mm. That might get taken out this year though the way we are tracking, currently on 2mm and no rainfall showing up over the next 10 days.

[Lucia]

On a domestic note, something that has never happened before in April, I washed and stored the summer cotton blankets, thinking they won't be brought out till the end of the year... so warm last night, couldn't sleep, so today had to retrieve them all from the cupboards and remake the beds, ready for the onslaught of heat

[stevco123]

On a domestic note, something that has never happened before in April, I washed and stored the summer cotton blankets, thinking they won't be brought out till the end of the year... so warm last night, couldn't sleep, so today had to retrieve them all from the cupboards and remake the beds, ready for the onslaught of heat

There is no onslaught of heat. The nights are still chilly despite the mild days. The next week won't be that hot, with several downgrades in the forecasts. Looks to be pleasant

[StratoBendigo]

Thursday 17th looks to be very hot - forecast of 31c here, which almost equals the 31.8c on April 17th 2019. I think that's our latest +30c in Autumn recorded here (or close to it).

Ironically some similarity between Jan-March 2019 and Jan-March 2025 with big rains in Qld and nothing here.

I hate this heat and dry. EC was keen for a downpour on Easter Monday, but is now not interested. Much cooler after Good Friday though in all models.

[Macedonian]

Yeah, it's foul. Day after day of monotonous dry, sunny weather with way too much warmth.
A drought period in Southern Vic is well overdue. Good rain since about 2010. Bound to change soon and turn back to hellish drought conditions like the late 90s and first decade of the 2000s.

[Lighthouse]

We’ve already been in drought for two years as has Southern South Australia. Farmers there are facing a third year of drought.

[Macedonian]

Yes true in some areas. Ive still had average rainfall or just above average at my place over the last two years.

[QldTwister]

Absolutle stunnter outside today, prefect day being sitting out in it all day so nice happy and alive

Even better today amazing weather for mid April

Def feel for farmers and those living on the land desperate for rain for many and none coming maybe May this will turn if not who knows but yes def due for widespread drought many wet years expect for 18 and 19 they where very dry.

warm to hot prefect sunny weekend cooler monday then warm sunny Tues to Thursday then strong chnage and much cooler easter weekend but still no widespread soaking rain just showers

[hillybilly]

Seems like all of southern Vic is trending towards drought, the past 2 years. I suppose timing is right for a drought too. It's been 'wet' since 2011 (so 14 years). Previous to that, the millennium drought lasted for about 15 years (from 1996ish to 2011).

Unfortunately Victoria hasn’t been wet. It’s been below average for those 14 years. In total nearly a years worth of rain has gone missing since 2011. Almost every autumn has been below average which is when the drying is strongest as the winter fronts are pushed south by rising temperatures. It’s also been the hottest period on record. Here’s the data.

Since 1997 Victoria has lost about four years worth of rainfall.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/c ... eriod=6190

[hillybilly]

Nice day here today but hazy. Max of 21C. Looking forward to some rain here tomorrow. That front will scrape South Gippsland but not get any further north On the mainland temperatures are far too warm for the time of year. Widely running 10 to 15C above average.

Signs that we might see a break around this time next week. Bit of rain too for the southeast mainland. Before then going to be summer like temperatures.

[stevco123]

Seems like all of southern Vic is trending towards drought, the past 2 years. I suppose timing is right for a drought too. It's been 'wet' since 2011 (so 14 years). Previous to that, the millennium drought lasted for about 15 years (from 1996ish to 2011).

Unfortunately Victoria hasn’t been wet. It’s been below average for those 14 years. In total nearly a years worth of rain has gone missing since 2011. Almost every autumn has been below average which is when the drying is strongest as the winter fronts are pushed south by rising temperatures. It’s also been the hottest period on record. Here’s the data.

Since 1997 Victoria has lost about four years worth of rainfall.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/c ... eriod=6190

Maybe, just maybe, this is what the actual climate of Victoria is like, and the preceding years before 1997 were not normal? I guess we'll never know as records only go back 160ish years

[hillybilly]

Warm one today for the mainland. Bit cooler for Tasmania with rain developing. Unfortunately most that rain slips just under Victoria. There’s an excellent tropical infeed but it just doesn’t connect for the mainland.

Will be pretty windy pre trough with some fire weather warnings posted. Bit of concern particularly for southeast SA and also for the central highland of Victoria where a burn has escaped and is now quite a sizeable fire

Steveco the paleo records show that recent rainfall declines in the westerlies are the most severe in at least 800 years https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2 ... year%20low. There is so much science published on this, and it’s why Perth, Adelaide, and Melbourne have large desalination plants because rainfall is no longer reliable. This graph which is updated to the very recent says it all. Centuries of slow cooling saw the tropics contract. Then a few decades ago things abruptly changed. That’s us heating the planet fast and a rapidly expanding the tropics. We’ve know for a few decades that the high pressure ridge over southern Australia correlated strongly with global temperatures.

[stevco123]

Warm one today for the mainland. Bit cooler for Tasmania with rain developing. Unfortunately most that rain slips just under Victoria. There’s an excellent tropical infeed but it just doesn’t connect for the mainland.

Will be pretty windy pre trough with some fire weather warnings posted. Bit of concern particularly for southeast SA and also for the central highland of Victoria where a burn has escaped and is now quite a sizeable fire

Steveco the paleo records show that recent rainfall declines in the westerlies are the most severe in at least 800 years https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2 ... year%20low. There is so much science published on this, and it’s why Perth, Adelaide, and Melbourne have large desalination plants because rainfall is no longer reliable. This graph which is updated to the very recent says it all. Centuries of slow cooling saw the tropics contract. Then a few decades ago things abruptly changed. That’s us heating the planet fast and a rapidly expanding the tropics. We’ve know for a few decades that the high pressure ridge over southern Australia correlated strongly with global temperatures.

Right. So there is no actual physical recorded evidence. Got it. Sounds as dodgy as BoM changing the goal posts to now refer to data only going back to 1910, completely ignoring events such as the federation drought.
Climate is climate. Always has been changing. There is no "normal". I will no longer speak up about this topic on behalf of the silent majority.

Beautiful day yesterday. Melbourne missed its forecast 30 degree mark, although today thay could happen depending on cloud cover. 24 already in the city. Autumn proper yet to make an appearance...