Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
Forum rules
When posting photos, particularly in active breaking weather threads, please link to clickable photos to minimise download issues. For more information, see Posting Photo Guidelines for more information. Threads that are six weeks old or older will be Archived Here
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by hillybilly »

February stinker coming up with a monsoon low or possible cyclone in the Coral Sea and a high in the south Tasman Sea setting up a long lived block. Will initially be fairly easterly so coastal areas will get sea breezes, but it goes more northerly with time, then cools again in coastal parts, but north stays hot. No doubt models will wiggle but based on the latest EC temps at 5pm starting Saturday February 1 are ball park…

Mildura
40, 42, 42, 42, 44, 45, 44, 43, 38.
Melbourne
28, 38, 40, 40, 25, 30, 25, 24, 21.

Max temps would typically be a degree or two warmer again, so could see temps in northern Victoria approaching records on multiple days. The system is overall quite troughy, so expect late afternoon convection and even the odd rumble, mainly near the hills. In theory sounds good, but in practice probably means some dry lightning on at least some of the days.
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1113
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Tassiedave »

Guy from the BOM on ABC Northern Tasmania this morning said Launceston could be 35 degrees on Monday February 3rd. This would be a very rare event.
Q
QldTwister
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by QldTwister »

Yep big heatwave on the way next week, something we have dodged missed out on last 4 or 5 years so def due.

Very hot for much of the inland much like black summer and the 2009 heatwave

looking at 4 days at least in the high 30s to near 40c in Melb and afternoon Cu bubbling away each day maybe the odd shower or storm and hot nights too im excited just sad working so much so miss much of it :(

Engrey grid could really strugge big test next week hopefully no rolling black outs

sunny today nice but little cool lol ;) ;)
Bring on the heat and stroms
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by hillybilly »

Progs look a bit more thundery this morning. Stinking hot inland. Coastal parts will benefit from sea breezes at times. Still no good rain event in the progs.
L
Lighthouse
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:54 pm
Location: Fairhaven

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Lighthouse »

Thundery could be good, more humidity, but also bad, re potential lightning. Sometimes Aireys Inlet is spared from these heat events by sea breezes but the trouble is you don’t really know until the day itself. The Otways are so dry that if a fire does start then the reality is that nothing will stop it next week. Anxious times ahead.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1889
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Skywalker »

True to form the scorching heat hits just as the kids head back to school. :roll:
Going to be stuck in the western hell hole for the next 2 weeks as well, just to rub salt into the wounds.

Lots & lots of plant watering coming up.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1113
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Tassiedave »

Latest BOM forecast looking at heat on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday for Tas/Vic with a change coming Wednesday
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like it may be quite unstable for much of the event now, as we basically have a big heat low over the southeast with unstable mid levels. Going to be stinking hot inland for a couple of weeks. No real break for places. Mildura will probably score somewhere around ten 40C plus days starting Saturday, though might be close on Wednesday which looks a little milder. Melbourne city has multiple days where it will get near to 40C, but sea breeze etc will matter a lot. Pretty worried about how the event will eventually end, as having a 45C air mass parked just north of Victoria for days and days, sets us up for a really nasty fire day if a front moves up. Currently EC suggests that may happen around Monday a week out with Melbourne spiking to near 45C. Too far out to know - I’ve tended to find these events go one of two ways. The heat trough deepens and southerly comes in and airmass slowly cools. Wind isn't too bad. Other way is a westerly front eventually moves up and the whole system sharpens up with heat surging south with strong or worse winds.

TAS avoids the worst of it, but will be hot Monday and Tuesday. Looks like low to mid 30s. Inland valleys will also be hot.

Btw watch WA for a few goes at 50C. EC has a peak around 52C. Geraldton could well see its first 50C if the models are to be believed. It’s broken its previous hottest day record twice in 12 months, and could make it a third time.
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2997
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Gordon »

Perhaps some rain for us starting to showing up on the models to take the edge off this freakin' upcoming heat...
I certainly hope so :o .
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1113
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Tassiedave »

Good analysis HB. Interesting the BOM has a 36 on the Launceston forecast. This would be in the top 5 maximum temperatures recorded.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by hillybilly »

Progs basically wiggling. Last mild to warm day today. Getting hot from tomorrow. Sunday and Monday will then be 40C give or take for most of Victoria and mostly high 20s Tasmania. Showers and storms, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday but very hit and miss. Could get zilch or 30mm.

Heat eases for a couple of days, then back again later next week.

Watch Queensland for a historic flood event. EC has locally 1.2 metres of rain the next three days, coinciding with high global sea level, king tides, a storm surge etc. Townsville already floods now just from tides on the summer king tide (30cm is all the difference between no flood and minor tidal flood, and that’s how much higher sea levels are now). The combination this week looks very ordinary for the central coast of Queensland. The low there is the northern part of the block affecting us in the southeast.
Q
QldTwister
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by QldTwister »

Yeah huge flood event across NE Qld next few days, widespread 600 to 900 with a few 1.5m come Tuesday alreday 200-300mm around townsville today with lots flash flooding huge dangerous weeekend on way

Solid heatwave from tomorrow Sun Mon Tues could be hottest run since 2014 in Melb impressive arvos and evenings at beach gonna be magical and isol storms around but mostly to west and hot nights too my fav weather just sucks working next few days to really enjoy it

Lucky no strong winds just baking heat but lightning out west could spark more fires

No rain for ages sadly and more heat next weekend but all depaeant on all the action in the tropics
Bring on the heat and stroms
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by hillybilly »

First hot one today. Bit of cloud early for Tasmania, but otherwise sunny.

Tomorrow is hotter again. Near 40C for Victoria. Perhaps the odd strat shower or storm, but looks better on Monday and Tuesday.
L
Lighthouse
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:54 pm
Location: Fairhaven

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Lighthouse »

Finished January with 20mm against an average of 43mm. Daytime temperatures 2C above average.
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3010
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by stevco123 »

Strong seabreeze keeping temps down along the coast, but just a few kilometres inland and it's baking.

Makes me wonder why they named the now relocated Frankston weather station after it's old name (Frankston). It doesn't give a true reflection as Ballam Park is about 5km inland. Currently 30 there, but only 25 in Frankston proper.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2997
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Gordon »

43.5mm for us for January (average 63.5mm) most of which fell in the first 13 days - only 1mm since. Lovely cool week apart from the spike day on Australia Day holiday (when I was nice and cool in the Tassie highlands) but heating up fast now.

Crossing everything for a storm tomorrow...

(PS: BOM 4 day charts haven't updated as of 5pm. Glitch or difficult forecasting I wonder?)
R
Ryant1234
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 11, 2023 10:58 pm

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Ryant1234 »

36.2 in viewbank and 27.6 at the melbourne site. Massive difference
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1113
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Tassiedave »

Those rainfall figures and forecasts in Far North Queensland are hard to comprehend. 1000 - 2000mm in a just a few days
R
Ryant1234
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 11, 2023 10:58 pm

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by Ryant1234 »

There must be a lot of potential for heavy rain in the tropics at the moment in some spots, i wonder if its related? Bintulu in Malaysian Borneo got 800mm in 48 hours recently, a site in the city has that much in 24 hours but I'm doubting its accuracy
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 5321
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Very hot start to February: Feb 1-

Post by hillybilly »

Was a bit surprised how hot it got yesterday at a few spots including Viewbank (38C), Mildura (41C) and Ouse (32C). Goes to show how hot the airmass over Australia generally is atm. January number just out all show a picture of heat. Oz second hottest January, and states and territories all unusually warm. Nearly half of WA had their hottest month on record :?

Stinker today and becoming very humid. This system is tapping very moist air with precipitable water value headed in to the high 30s to low 40s. Not much of a trigger unfortunately, so mainly pulse storms, tending to favour the western half of Victoria today, and northern Tasmania tomorrow. Pretty worried about dry lightning tbh as vegetation is dry now, and while storms will drop locally heavy falls the dry fuel is what matters.

Heat then just rolls and rolls. Coastal areas get a respite mid week with southerly or easterly flow, but inland hot for days. Bit nervous about a week out as the air mass is going to get hot enough for mid 40s over much of Victoria.

Meanwhile up north crazy rain. Townsville probably headed for its wettest February day on record. The low is forming the block for this system but also heats the air as the latent heat released by the rainfall comes down over us creating the big upper high. The record hot SSTs are a big problem as they cause heavier rainfall amounts and also for us heats the air that much more efficiently (8% more per degree of warming). The whole chain is pretty complex but basically it means that if you have warmed by 1.5C then your hottest day has warmed by double that.
Post Reply