Becoming hot then a low developing with possible showers and storms: January 3-

[hillybilly]

Hot spell brewing for the start of January, peaking around Sunday, with a low slowly developing in an easterly trough. Looks like temps will peak in the high 30s in southern Victoria and low 40s in the north. Cooler for Tasmania, but potentially up to 30C. A weak low will develop and could be some showers and storms, possibly tending to rain. There is a big spread in the models so details will take a while to settle.

[Lighthouse]

Unfortunately it looks like another East Coast event. Finished the year at Aireys Inlet with about a third less rainfall than average, 450mm compared to an average of 625mm. That’s nearly the same rainfall deficit as the year before, making two exceptionally dry years. The December temperature average was 2.8C above average, November was similar. That’s crazy. The entire West of Victoria is looking at risk from bushfire, as one of Australia’s remaining ecological treasures, the Grampians, continues to be razed. We are going to need to good fortune to get through summer with no rain in the outlook. The very last thing we need is more heat.

[stevco123]

Unfortunately it looks like another East Coast event. Finished the year at Aireys Inlet with about a third less rainfall than average, 450mm compared to an average of 625mm. That’s nearly the same rainfall deficit as the year before, making two exceptionally dry years. The December temperature average was 2.8C above average, November was similar. That’s crazy. The entire West of Victoria is looking at risk from bushfire, as one of Australia’s remaining ecological treasures, the Grampians, continues to be razed. We are going to need to good fortune to get through summer with no rain in the outlook. The very last thing we need is more heat.

A bushfire is good for the bush. An ecological treasure will become even better after this.

[Gordon]

A bushfire is good for the bush. An ecological treasure will become even better after this.

Not that simple unfortunately. Type of bush, intensity and frequency are the issue. Moderate intensity fires, with many years between, are basically good (even necessary) for most sclerophyll forests. However, too frequent, e.g. some of the alpine fires in recent decades which burnt Alpine Ash seedlings before they had a chance to seed themselves, are landscape changing - and for the worse IMO. Likewise fires that are hot enough to burn into rainforest where they're not 'meant' to occur. Antarctic beech (such as in rainforest gullies in the Otways), Tassie's pencil pine, etc. have no strategy to come back from fire. Once they're gone, they're gone.

That's all before we consider the loss of property, livestock, crops, endangered wildlife, and even human life.

Meanwhile, we are finishing the year on 530.5mm here, vs an average of 830mm. Our driest year since at least 1996, when we moved up here. Tinder dry.

I'm with you on this one Lighthouse. Praying that this next system delivers something for at least some of western Vic, but after so many east-centric systems, I wish I could be more confident .

[hillybilly]

Welcome to 2025! Hope people have a good one, with a return of better rain, some decent storms, snow, and variety of weather. We were pretty lucky down here in 2025 with a series of events in the easterlies which we do very well on just south of Hobart. We landed somewhere between 50 and 100mm above average (need to do my final sums). The easterly systems are quirky as they basically peak on the first bit of topography they hit, and rainshadow strongly after that. We sit just below a 200-300m range through Tinderbox which boosts the easterly set ups a lot, and have very little then between us and the Tasman Sea. Hobart CBD finished 5mm below average, so nearly average but not quite there.

The progs are wiggling but not much changing. Going to be a hot weekend.

Natural fires at historically normal frequencies annd intensities are good for the environment. Repeated hot burns aren’t. The ecological collapse playing out in southern Australian forests due to rising temperatures, decline relative humidity and less reliable cool season rainfall is extensively documented. Similar things are happening across Europe, North America, North Africa, South America west coast, Mediterranean etc. Anyone who had the good fortune to hiking the Victorian alps before the horrible repeated burns in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2019 with lots of fires between those years will know what we have now is a severely degraded version of the tall subalpine forests and extensive snow gums that graced our higher rainfall areas. Our wonderful country towns are still suffering the consequences

[Lucia]

Very fortunate to receive 994.5mls for the year. As we are on tank water it is extremely important for us.

[hillybilly]

Looks like you are excited on glitching Lucia Like you we are on water tanks so I very rarely complain about rain. This year our water tanks ended December full, with a total of 75,000 litres. Last year we were on about 5,000 litres at this point and ended up buying in five truck loads of water over summer costing us about $700. When you multiply that across a whole street (there are 80 houses in our road), a good years is worth something like $50,000 in water for this one street alone. Certainly helps with costs of living pressures.

Nice cool one here this morning, but now things warm up. Going to be hot for most of Victoria Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Warm for Tasmania, with winds mostly a bit easterly which takes the edge off things.

Showery change with perhaps a storm moving in for Sunday and Monday. Patchy and hit and miss, so hard to pick totals. Profs are also jumpy on the details.

Progs starting to brew up a big system in about ten days.

[Gordon]

Vic rainfall deciles for 2024 tell the story - you can clearly see the reasonable rain for Melbourne's eastern suburbs, vs the poor year for the likes of Lighthouse and me.



Things would have been even more dire for parts of the south-west coast, were it not for some good December rain.



Meanwhile, as hillybilly says, progs are jumping all over the place for rainfall Sunday-Tuesday. If you don't like what you see, just wait a few hours for the next run

[hillybilly]

First hot one today. Mostly 30 to mid 30s for Victoria. Low to mid 20s Tasmania. Heatwave warnings posted.

Tomorrow doesn’t look very good fire wise. Temps for the mainland near 40C and low humidity. Wind isn’t too bad but with conditions dry, not a good day. Watch for a potentially very hot night Sunday. EC stalling the change until early Monday. Good luck picking the rainfall totals. Could be 2mm or 20mm

[StratoBendigo]

It's going to be hot weekend here. Knocking on the door of 40c on Sunday....

January 11-13th is the main point of interest for me now. Potential is there for significant rainfall. Or it could be nothing.

[QldTwister]

Stunning day at lake cullerine today, swimming, nibbles, temps around 36c, light winds, deep blue skies cool water so good loving this summer

Couple low 40s over the weekend nice pool weather, think Sunday be to cloudy for low 40s here but high 30s again.

Hot in Melboure too i see, I get back Sunday arvo so hopefully can make it to beach before sunset, stalled change sounds great.

South will get some rain on Monday, but north and west little if any def, dry around here after wet Nov, need rain.

Late next week possibly warm to hot humid and stromy one to watch

[hillybilly]

Stinker today. About the same tomorrow. Well short of records but adds to what is becoming a really hot summer. Apparently forecast will give Melbourne its hottest weekend in a decade, though that’s not a particularly meaningful stat.

Good news that Monday’s rainband is looking good for much of Victoria and northeast Tasmania. Looks like a miss down here in southeast TAS. Looks like 10-25mm, peaking near the great divide. Sure it will be very welcome. Hopefully at least something for the Grampians.

Not sure what to make of the progs in the next week with troughs but also really hot uppers. Lots of jumps in the models.

[Ryant1234]

Got back from the coolest and most rain days Christmas/ new years period I can remember in Christchurch, NZ.

Sat around 12 degrees most of the day yesterday and peaked at 15 in the morning

Back to a 39 and 40 degree Saturday/ Sunday at the viewbank station

[QldTwister]

Just briefly reached 40c here but cloud keeping it cooler now only 38c lol spent last couple hours out there its nice about to go for walk then hit the pool hot nights on the way tonight and tomorrow night.

Yep looking wet for southern and esatern vic northern vic little if any ran sadly

hot humid mid late next week and next weekend maybe some storms about but least its warm

[hillybilly]

Stinker as expected today. Fortunately wind speeds have stayed down. Repeat tomorrow, and tbh looks a touch hotter. Melbourne burbs should see some 40s, and think the cbd maybe 50:50.

Much nice down here. 28C today with a humid sea breeze. Top score for Tasmania was 34C in Fingal on the east coast.

Rain for Monday. Progs are starting to get pretty loopy after this with a stuck easterly dip heat low. Could see some seriously ugly heat develop depending on exactly where the trough sits and what moisture make its way into it, or not.

[samboz]

Re HEATWAVE WARNINGS today 5/1- BOM pic -

image.png (90.69 KiB) Viewed 873 times

While written forecast for SALE today is 39C.
Undoubtably another hot day, but why doesn't the heatwave warning show it ?
Re living on tank water, we had 120K litres and could mostly relax, never bought water - nearest was about 300mm
left in the 88K tank.

[QldTwister]

Heatwave warning is for 3 day periods, so image above Sun Mon Tues.
Sun hot but Monday tuesday are cool to near cold and wet so that why heatwave warning dont trigger but for fri sat sun it does

its annoying is a 3 day product trying to fit on a daily sacle which it does not

Another great day here lots showers popped up but moved east so nothing here sad times

[Lighthouse]

Somehow look like getting through this heatwave without any major fires, although I noticed a few have popped up in the east of the state, which suggests everywhere is drying out. It’s a bit disappointing that BOM didn’t get its temperature predictions right for Aireys Inlet, underestimating the heat by around four degrees each day and not picking up the predominant north westerly winds. When you are trying to decide whether to stay or go in high to extreme bushfire conditions you really need accurate forecasts to guide you.

[Lucia]

wow 5000 litres is extremely low, $700 is still way cheaper than water rates and beautiful rainwater the majority of the time is such a plus. We don't think we would accept town water if offered to hook up now, after 42 years we manage pretty well. It was more of a problem when the children were at home.5 loads for $700 is about par with what we would be required to pay if bought, and we have the same capacity 75000 litres, but our beautiful garden loves it in the summer and in periods of dryness it goes down rapidly.

[Lucia]

wow 5000 litres is extremely low, $700 is still way cheaper than water rates and beautiful rainwater the majority of the time is such a plus. We don't think we would accept town water if offered to hook up now, after 42 years we manage pretty well. It was more of a problem when the children were at home.5 loads for $700 is about par with what we would be required to pay if bought, and we have the same capacity 75000 litres, but our beautiful garden loves it in the summer and in periods of dryness it goes down rapidly.