Deep low developing with showers, storms and snow possible on alps: December 21-24

[hillybilly]

Classic summer cold outbreak showing up which develops into a deep broad low across the southeast. The system is pretty classic with a deepening easterly trough and strong front interacting near Bass Strait. The air is cold with this, so expect some snow on both the peaks in Tasmania and Victoria. Fair bit of split on exactly where the low will sit, but these systems usually benefit east central and coastal Victoria and Tasmania. Expect the Yarra Ranges, western Tasmania and southeast Tasmania to do well. Unfortunately, probably mainly wind for much of northern Victoria.

[Didjman]

Maybe some rough weather for the yacht race?

[QldTwister]

Yeah def some big swell for sydney to hobart but weather looks to have cleared mostly by then

Yeah so many Xmas things on Sun Mon Tues and weather looking bit violets
Mon going to be like winter alway pay for nice weather in melbourne cant have heat without winter bursting back here and there for few days lol

Def looking wet for SE burbs 15 to 30 with isol 50mm yarra ranges etc cold gusty showery SW winds monday

Xmas still looking nice and boxing nice and wamm before next change, fronts have returned highs running fair way north to for this time year.

[hillybilly]

Maybe some rough weather for the yacht race?

Clears really quickly. Bit surprising really, but models aren’t budging on it all moving quickly.

Progs wiggling but not anything major. Totals probably looking a bit better through east central, and shot of cold air perhaps looking a bit better. 850Ts get to about 0C so expect there could be some sharp coldies. With a really warm bay and Bass Strait) wouldn’t be surprised to see funnels pop up on socials come Monday if the system tracks as currently progged. They are a lot more common than people think. I’ve seen three in a day in south Gippsland and none of them got officially reported, while from the Nongs we’d typically see a couple a year. Guess we will see.

[Lighthouse]

Doesn’t look like anything much for the western half of Victoria so nothing different there. Certainly nothing to put the fires out in the Grampians or mitigate any new ones. Going to be an interesting holiday period. Hopefully the New Year will bring better prospects for some moisture.

[Adam38]

40c for Boxing Day now

[hillybilly]

Lows still on track. Expecting pretty widespread 10-20mm east central, Otways, South Gippsland and Tasmania. Not much elsewhere unfortunately. Snow down here to about 900m Monday morning.

Later in the week looks nasty. Very hot bad fire day on Thursday. Looks the worst day since early 2020. Couple of records to watch. Melbourne hottest midnight temperature and the highest minima on record. EC has around 35C at midnight, and the minima may struggle to get below 30C depending on the timing on the front. Western Victoria looks particularly concerning with the drought in place, very low humidity and high winds

[jimmyay]

Oh wow. Let’s hope the cool change comes through in the evening and gives us the opportunity for sleep!

Looks like a great Christmas Day at least!
Change from last years washout!

[Skywalker]

Really frustrating forecast for me personally. We are heading down to the island tonight & coming back Tuesday. Going to be potentially wet & crap the whole time we are there.

Then we have a horrid 40c day expected on boxing day when I'm off to the G to watch the cricket with my son.

Can't take a trick.

[Onetahuti]

The excessive heat on Boxing Day is concerning, Traditionally I have the extended family here for a BBQ in the back yard which will be hard enough but more so it is the time my other half who is in aged care can get out and meet up with them. She would at best be ill for several days afterwards.

[Didjman]

We are putting our normal Boxing Day family get together back to the 27th due to expected heat. Will be a bad fire day too!

[hillybilly]

Low still on track. Looks half decent for east central, coasts and Tasmania. Be welcome in those areas.

Unfortunately it introduces a lot of dry air which will set up bad fire weather conditions over the Grampians then come into play again on Thursday with a horrid fire day. Guess I’ll add another thread for that stinker of a sequence. Watching closely for records to fall overnight on Thursday night with progs showing temperatures nudging 35C at midnight for large parts of Victoria large areas of SA look like going catastrophic fire danger and expect the western half of Victoria will go close.

[hillybilly]

Active arvo to evening coming up. Unfortunately northern Victoria won’t score, but most southern parts of VIC should get a bit. Better for TAS, with some rumbles likely. Snow levels should drop briefly to just below 1000m. Thinking spots like Baw Baw, Lake Mt, and most the peaks in Tasmania should have a bit of white come the morning.

[QldTwister]

Wet night on the way for east central vic but most others get little if any in southern vic and next to nothing for the fires i would assume

Got big xmas event on in geelong tonight worst timing this rain, gonna be wet cold and windy booooo

Winter like night and monday but thankfully warms up again quickly mid late week

[hillybilly]

Like summer and winter all wrapped up into a single day down here. Warm sunny morning to early arvo, then heavy rain moved in about 4pm with a few rumbles. 16mm at our place but locally over 40mm to the east of Hobart. MTD here is now nearly 150mm, and quite a bit above the annual average now (about 100mm above average). Hobart’s done better than us today and is closing in on 25mm, but ironically needs about 10mm to average.

Nice area of showers moving up on Victoria, and with a record hot bay expecting showers to really fire up through east central. Unfortunately not a lot elsewhere for Victoria.

[QldTwister]

Got whacked east of Geelong and got so cold with the changed roared through and poured rai for 15 mins then steady rain for about an hour or so made for cold fun times at the Christmasfestival lol

Bring on the warm up near winter at there sure more showers tonight and tomorrow

15mm in the city with a storm impressive

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Was a bit sqwarly when it arrived last night, had all the sensor lights dancing..
seems we’ve had over 4mm, was bone dry prior..
can’t believe the temp drops.. 9c here now..
no holding a hose today.. phew..

seems this is the year for fire bags to be packet ready to roll..
had a couple local that would have put the wind up a few..

Merry Christmas to all.

[Onetahuti]

Delighted with 18mm so far, would have been better though if it was over the Grampians.

[Macedonian]

We scored 3.5mm and temp has dropped to 4.8° this morning.
Not looking forward to Boxing Day at all.

[hillybilly]

Just shy of 20mm here. Might get a few more mms this arvo when the cold air moves in. Some cracking falls over Hobart’s eastern suburbs with a few 40-60mm falls showing up. With easterlies feeding the storms they were building up as they rolled off the hills.

Good to see the locally heavier falls around central for VIC, but overall basically just as expects with mostly light falls. Bit of snow on the alps, and a nice cover of hail or graupel at Thredbo this morning.

Thursday looks a bit less bad. Melbourne topping out about 38C on the progs. Western areas look very ordinary with fire indices spiking to catastrophic on EC.