Deep low with storms, gales and heavy rain: Nov 30-

[hillybilly]

New thread for the deepening trough which forms a deep low in the southern Tasman Sea / Bass Strait before drifting southwest to be somewhere off the Tasmanian west coast later Sunday. Showers and storms will become widespread as deep tropical moisture wraps south, with heavy falls developing across Tasmania and probably for eastern Victoria. The system then struggles to clear with a sequence of troughs coming up into the back of it with a hot and very moist airmass sitting over much of southern Australia for the coming week.

[Didjman]

Planning a storm chase Saturday; thinking NE Vic. What do people think?

[hillybilly]

Planning a storm chase Saturday; thinking NE Vic. What do people think?

EC suggest Melbourne northeast through the Yarra Valley to Mansfield may be best. Pretty widespread.

Down here looks torrential Saturday night with progs showing 100-200mm in 12 hours on the northeast coast. Some spots have already seen 100-200mm the past 36 hours so catchments getting primed if we get large totals.

Btw EC showing some crazy DPs for the week ahead. It has two to three days of DPs in the 20’s for Melbourne peaking near 24C. The Melbourne metro December and possibly all months record will be possible if that comes off.

[QldTwister]

Friday night/Saturday another big 36 hours day for Vic with widespread rain and severe thunderstroms with heavy falls best storms in northern Vic just amazing wet active week 25-50mm again for much of the state.

Clears Sunday
Another front/trough with a band of rain and thunderstroms Monday night and Tuesday across the state

Then Thurs/Fri/Sat next week looking hot and very humid with widespread severe thunderstroms more heavy falls and rain

What a pattern, why cant all late springs be like this active few weeks ahead

[hillybilly]

Progs not moving much. Broad trough today over the whole of eastern Australia, but not a lot of focus so showers mainly on the east coasts. Low then rapidly develops tomorrow forming near Lake Emtrance then moving rapidly southwest to be near northwest Tasmania then southwest Tasmania over 36 hours. Centre may well drop below 990hPa. Showers widespread to the north and south of the low, with heavy rain developing for eastern Victoria and Tasmania. Showers wrap around on the western and northern side. Track currently puts Melbourne in a bit of a rain hole, so not expecting that much for central. That could change, but generally speaking you don’t do well if you are too close to the low centre.

Low basically stalls then, before a couple of troughs on Monday and Tuesday. Airmass remains hot and muggy into next week, with possible record high dew points depending on the details.

[StratoBendigo]

Still a huge amount of divergence in forecast rainfall over the weekend. No idea what we'll end up with tbh - 5mm or 60mm? Dunno....

Some weird totals being thrown up. Ie. 226mm near Woomelang on UKMet 18z - yeah right.

[James]

the bom forecast for here changed about 3 times this morning, initially being fine, last one by late morning now says chance of a storm about the hills...

hmm i dont think they know either!

during the storm event the other day the specific warnings were a nightmare to follow, they'd warn of a storm heading towards an area, then not long after remove it and replace with a different storm going a different direction, none of which happened. Admittedly it was a difficult to forecast day, but it just made a mockery of the whole warning system and people just ignore it in the end.

[wobbie]

Looks pretty interesting, not blaming anyone for remaining sceptical though

[weathergasm]

That could change, but generally speaking you don’t do well if you are too close to the low

Yep, whenever I see the low coming down from the north and making a beeline for Melbourne I just assume it’s going to be some moderate rain as opposed to a big storm day. The forecast for Melbourne for Saturday was downgraded a bit from earlier in the week where heavy falls were forecast.

[stevco123]

Everything depends on the path of the low. Literally by a few kilometres

[StratoBendigo]

Decent storm near Heathcote. Coming in from the East.

[QldTwister]

Nice light show to north atm flashes every few seconds.

Loving this weather atm hot, sunny, humid days and weather storms every day or so LOVING IT.

Big active 36 hours on way for Vic with rain, thunderstroms, drizzle, flash flooding, humid, windy weather have it all many get 10-20mm, some more 30-50mm, mostly East and SW Vic and under stroms get heaiver falls

Melb showers, patchy rain, maybe some thundery rain but wont be lots still 10-20mm for most more under strom across metro

Then again Mon night Tuesday
Then Friday big day
Then Saturday big day

then cold dry air moves in NOOOOOOOOO

[James]

That was nice to see some lightning to the north, not at all what the models were saying, so be interesting to see what else happens

[hillybilly]

Big 48 hours of weather. Many areas are still dry, so sure the rain will be mostly welcome. Low is deepening rapidly and moving south and west. Heavy rain for eastern areas, though the system is fairly fast moving so it won’t persist for too long. Heavier falls will be to the north and south of the low. Unfortunately that puts a lot of Melbourne in the likely drier part, so I would not be surprised if people in Melbourne land with a lower total. Better for western Victoria and thinking the northerly pre-low and then westerly wrap around will deliver well for the northern country.

TAS will see good falls across the north and east, heavy in the northeast corner. Hobart will do well, but probably avoid a flood event. Track is just a touch too west on the low for down here for us to get a perfectly aligned east-north-east flow, but it could be close. Currently thinking about 40mm down here just south of Hobart for the next two days which will be a very welcome event for the garden, tanks and dams after a pretty ordinary October-November.

Lots of troughs and lows for the following week with record or near record humidity.

[StratoBendigo]

About 10mm this morning. Now clearing.

[stevco123]

4mm so far. Just about what i expected. Certainly didn't/ don't expect storms

[Macedonian]

I've had 95mm since last Monday. Total for November will be near 120mm, amazing achievement after the hideously dry weeks preceding this one.
Hope it rains all summer.

[StratoBendigo]

Today was fairly non-eventful tbh. Tuesday might be a bit stormy.

48mm in the past week.

[Wilko]

Pouring in Highett

[Wilko]

5mm in 10mins here just now
Rain gauge shows 16mm for this event