Warm to hot, then rain and storms: Nov 21-29

[hillybilly]

Messy day today, with early showers and the odd rumble out east then showers and storms developing in the west as the low in the bight approaches. That system has multiple centres and one then rotate down over Tasmania tomorrow.

Totals look best over the eastern half of Victoria and then Tasmania. More locally heavy falls.

Melbourne looks a bit inbetween the systems to me, with storms east then west the next 24 hours. With things moving so slow, will be strong gradients between good falls and light falls.

Down here in Tas we’ve got murk. Had stratus almost non-stop for nearing 3 days sitting near sea level in the evenings. Light drizzle at sea level, and more at about 500mm where some spots have clocked up around 10mm so far. No complaints, and looking forward to getting some proper rain tomorrow.

[Gordon]

The south west and Surf Coast keep missing out. 1mm in Aireys Inlet for the event and on track for our driest November ever and currently running more than 200mm below average for the year. Another record dry month will mean five such record dry months in the past year. It’s seriously dire.

Intensely frustrating. La Nina does this east/ west thing all the time (hence I'm ambivalent about it as a climate driver for us) but never a negative IOD... until now. Should be favouring us westerners, yet the weather systems are continually playing out like it's a La Nina; almost a forcefield down the middle of the state

Hope it cracks soon - WATL seems to think so, but who knows these days...

[StratoBendigo]

14mm since Sunday takes our November MTD to 19mm. Still well below average.

Sun is shining this morning, which is nice. Sydney-ish humidity though.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

I just want to put washing on the line.
Not on line and then on clothes horse…

[Wilko]

Sun is out..sooo tropical
Radar should be an interesting watch this arvo

[Adam38]

Starting to get some development around Bacchus Marsh, currently 27c and 67% humidity.

[BigTom]

Sea breeze seems to be killing development in metro area, hope I am wrong

[StratoBendigo]

I just walked outside and I was like "Hello Sydney! (in February)"...

CBD in town had a couple of mm earlier this afternoon. Nothing at Kangaroo Flat.

[QldTwister]

Wow some massive totals in the Mallee and along the Murray and in the NE on the weekend
50mm in Mildura is Huge
Lots of 30 to 50mm in the Mallee over months worth in day
60 to 80mm falls around Renmark and Lake Vic massive for thouse areas almost a saeson worth of rain
Lots 50 to 100mm in NE ranges and lots more to come

13mm in ashwood over weekend

Warm humd cloudly stormy wet week for the state north and east will do best heavy falls out east and NE

[Pengaz]

4.5mm on Sunday and 7.5mm through to this morning from bands of very light rain, although a bit heavier this morning.

We finally got some sun mid afternoon after almost 2.5 days of thick cloud cover and humidity.

I’m expecting to wake up to rumbles during the night. Very muggy forecast for the rest of the week

[hillybilly]

Should be a rainy start to Wednesday for much of Victoria, while Tasmania lags a few hours with a mostly fine start then rain spreading south. Locally heavy falls, but gonna be a bit messy. Really humid, and it will be unstable behind the rainband so some rumbles.

Airmass is remarkable and bumping up against records. Melbournes highest dew point so far has been 20.6C. The record is 20.7C for November. Dew point basically tracks SSTs so when they go up, so do peak dew points. Thinking tomorrow could well see the record fall and Friday is another chance. Down here Tasmania the humidity has been remarkable despite not much rain. Had widespread sea fog today, which is not very common in the warm season. Expecting Hobart may well break its November humidity record.

Btw those pulse storms early evening in central were real dumpers. Few spots around Doncaster picked up more than 20mm in 15 minutes. Shows the potential.

[Ryant1234]

Hey cool, finally managed to sign in after years

I missed a storm at home in Epping this afternoon due to going to the office but it doesn't matter Looks like one(hopefully a few) is coming from the north now.
Sometimes the ones from the north strengthen a lot more by the time they hit the inner north.

Viewbank hit a dewpoint of 22.2 earlier with 26.6 degrees.

Edit:storm near Kilmore putting out a bolt every 3 seconds, have some visibility from backyard

[Blackee]

Welcome Ryant1234. Yeah those storms bubbling away to Melb's north may make it to town.

[93ben]

I hear a few rumbles in Templestowe and saw lightning around Mitcham & Bayswater tonight.

[hillybilly]

Very active radar atm. Must be some flash flooding in the western burbs looking at the radar. This will slowly clear and rotate down over a Tasmania. Going to be a very wet day. Many places currently racing towards their monthly average so going to avoid the really dry month it was looking like a few days back.

Down here in Tasmania the progs are really upping totals. Widespread 50-100mm by Sunday evening. Be very welcome.

Btw Melbourne broke its November dew point record by at least 0.2C this morning. Each degree adds 10-20% to peak rainfall intensity so that’s why it’s rainy so heavily with the showers. Australian sea surface temperatures are currently record warm, which is providing the fuel. With a negative IOD, borderline relative La Niña and MJO now all lined up with record SSTs the next few months are going to be interesting

[StratoBendigo]

23mm overnight. 37mm this week. Very damp outside.

[stevco123]

Let me guess... once this band passes, it'll be a mainly fine day with storms on the eastern ranges?

[Gordon]

10mm here from that lot; 22mm for the dates.

(And hope you're wrong steveco, but suspect you're right!)

[StratoBendigo]

Cold front is likely to hit around 1pm. The soundings indicate it could get intense.

[Lighthouse]

Just 8mm in Aireys Inlet, making 19mm for the month, way below our 59mm November average. Another relative bust for the Surf Coast and parts of the South West coast. Can anyone spare a thunderstorm and send it our way?