Warm to hot, then rain and storms: Nov 21-29

[hillybilly]

Dynamic but messy weather sequence coming up with a northeast to northwest flow being established over the southeast ahead of a slow moving trough. Sequence of warm to hot days, with multiple 30s likely for Victoria, and mid 20s for Tasmania which is a bit unusual for the time of year. As the trough approaches humidity will increase then shower and and storms tending to rain should become widespread by Sunday.

Quite a spread in the models but currently looks like western Victoria across Bass Strait into northern Tasmania will do best. Eastern Victoria and southern Tasmania and bit on the margins, so probably lighter falls. At this stage, a 100km shift north or south will make a big difference, and progs remain quite jumpy.

Next week could bring a repeat, though still too early to be sure.

[hillybilly]

First warm to hot one today. Overall temps not much changed, perhaps a touch hotter for Friday and Saturday. Rain band has weakened a bit and now looks like being more a South Australia and Victoria event. But…. Big split on models which are very jumpy. There is also a second weak low for Tuesday now.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

10 to 20mm Sunday…

Nice to feel the warmth tho…

[QldTwister]

Yeah excited for 3 4 days of warm hot weather not just a spike day here and there

End of month still looking intrestring with widespread rain and storms and humid across much of the country

Summer is here best 5 months of the year have begun

[StratoBendigo]

Bushfire near Creswick this afternoon in a pine plantation. It's also crossed the Ballarat-Maryborough railway line and closed it.

As for rain - OCF ensemble has 20mm and cooler temps after Saturday. GFS has quite the deluge forecast for Nov 29th.

[hillybilly]

Second hot day for Victoria today. Should nudge 40C in the northwest and well into the 30s in the south. TAS mild, mostly, though inland valleys will get quite hot.

Progs are really complex and wildly split. This stage looks like the main rainband on the weekend will be a Victorian event. May well peak close to central, and now a complex low forms on Tuesday into Wednesday as a shortwave come into the back of the stalled trough. That will thicken up the cloud and rain with likely heavy falls. Precipitable water values are exceptional, likely topping 50mm which would probably records.

Then what the low does is a big question. EC, GFs, Pangu, AIFS all cradle it for the week so bucket loads of rain and storms. JMA, UK and GEM slide it south over Tasmania so clear by PM Wednesday.

Think either way it’s gonna be a very wet system now for much of Victoria and Tasmania, but as usual with slow moving system some areas will miss out. Looking at progs would be worried about potential flash flooding and severe wet storms with rust for croppers/fruit a real issue. Guess we will see.

[StratoBendigo]

Not good timing. Many of the crops just North of Bendigo were looking quite good.

If it can dry out quickly it might be ok.

[Gordon]

Not good timing. Many of the crops just North of Bendigo were looking quite good.

If it can dry out quickly it might be ok.

Agreed, but I'll take the rain. Somehow, many crops up here are still green and growing, and 'driest November since records began' is not a record I want to see fall.

That's if in fact the rain arrives - so many BOM/ model letdowns this year, I'll believe it once it's falling.

[Sean]

Lovely hot day. Couldn’t escape work to visit the beach though.

Hopefully we get a soak after this. The rain band on Sunday looks promising, albeit rather moderate (according to EC anyway).

[hillybilly]

Perfect spring weather here with a humid sea breeze holding the maximum to 21C. Much warmer in the inland valleys temps just shy off 30C. Not a nice day up there in VIC, not quite 40C but lots of high 30s. Pretty similar tomorrow.

Rain band will develop very late tomorrow and should drop pretty widespread 10-20mm for Victoria before it stalls and weakens. Down here just a couple of mm’s. Front then runs into the back of it for Tuesday with widespread showers, storms and rain. Will be heavy fall with that, and hopefully get gets spread round, though fear the croppers and stone fruit won’t be wanting record or near record humidity and heavy rain now

[hillybilly]

Geez what a horrid night in Victoria. Lots of sites near their November record some above. Ferny Creek has broken it by 2C, Stawell by nearly 3C. She Oaks missed by 0.1C. Sites particularly with a bit of elevation have really coped the heat.

Any breaks in the cloud today and you would think 40C plus is possible.

Rain moving in late.

Down here in Tas, a nice calm night with 11C

I’ll expand the dates for the thread to capture the secondary development Tuesday and Wednesday and the second shot of rain and storms.

[snowfall]

A minimum overnight here of 20.8c, which followed yesterday's max of 34c. It has been a while since we've had these sorts of temps in November.

Still sitting on just 3mm for the month. But there is now some hope. Potential rain is looking good for a fair chunk of Vic tomorrow and then again by mid-week. I don't think it will be enough to stop November coming in below average here, but at least it won't be quite as dire, fingers crossed.

[StratoBendigo]

Cloudy still. BOM dropped the forecast max to 35c.

As for rain - anything from 20-120mm seems possible this coming week...

[Sean]

EC has it a bit earlier than expected (no sh*t judging by radar) and stalling longer. So, even if moderate, spots might get some decent accumulation.

[StratoBendigo]

Change has blown through here. EC has very much backed it off to 10mm here.

[hillybilly]

Humid 27C here yesterday. Got a bit of rain on the change, but just 0.4mm.

Good to see things cool down in Victoria and a wet day through the middle today. With the system stalling will be locally heavy falls, but also strong gradients. Gut feeling is the area to the northwest of Melbourne will do best with the southerly undercutting the rainband.

Things are really messy after that, but like scenario seems to be a low developing out near Mt Gambier slipping south towards Hobart. Expect that will drag storms across Victoria on Tuesday into Wednesday with rain to the south, particularly for northern and eastern Tasmania. Hoping it shares the rain around ahead of more hot weather next week.

[Gordon]

10mm here so far, reasonable start.

Hard to say what's to come - 5mm or 50mm? (Looks like the work experience kid is doing WATL again this morning; still stuck on yesterday.)

[Australis(Shell3155)]

9.4mm so far.
After a couple of just under 37c

Week ahead

[Lucia]

YTD 900 mls so far, so above average, just so erratical rainfall, lots or nothing

[Lucia]

YTD 900 mls so far, so above average, just so erratical rainfall, lots or nothing