The Australian Weather Forum

Cracking front developing for Thursday into Friday as a strong low passes just south of Tasmania. Main features look like rain (particularly northern slopes of VIC and western and northern TAS, followed by a blast of westerly winds. Totals look solid for most areas, but not excessive as the system is quite fast. Timing should save many places from near record low May totals, but won’t be enough to get most to average after a month of endless highs.

System starts out very mild so no prefrontal snow, but is quite chilly towards the end but after most the precip. Not seen8mg much snow tbh. Maybe a few cm about the higher parts.

Progs holding which is good. Also now showing the cold air that moves well north into the Tasman may well return as a strong east coast low for the southeast around Monday next week. Waiting to see how that settles in the progs.

Looks like a very widespread event - rain for most. ABC are excited https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-28/ ... /103898042

Looks a bit rain-shadowy (is that a word ) for us, but still good for 10mm or so. Strato, I think you might do better than that?

Both GFS and ACCESS now have the East Coast LOW. GFS has it stronger and earlier in the week.

Progs are looking good. ECL now sticking in all the models so first a big wet westerly system followed by a complex ECL that comes south and west. Might finally get a big fall down here and finally get some runoff, while croppers on the mainland will finally have something for their plantings.

Overall a very mild system so no joy for the snow lovers a week out from the start or the ski season. Perhaps there might be a shot of cold air briefly around Saturday and then late next week but between them heaps of rain.

Yeah, thinking 25mm here. We've had 4 frosts in a row which is nearly always a portent of a good drenching afterwards.

May 29th temps in TAS today: Ouse 21.0, Cape Bruny 20.0, Hobart 19.6,Friendly Beaches 19.1, Launceston 18.2

Really warm night here with gusty winds and temps around 15C. More like mid January tbh. Rain inbound for most, and should give a break for most of northern Victoria, and be a useful top up for northern and western TAS. Strong rainshadows for both Victoria and Tasmania so will be a lot lighter in the lee of the ranges.

Next weeks ECL substantial. Currently best looking event here in two years. Will bring the lot with gales, big waves, storm surge and heavy rain assuming the current scenario sticks. Could easily see falls widely topping 100mm in eastern TAS and Victoria.

Seeing some winding back of expected rain totals for today. We might just scrape up 15mm, with less in Western Vic.

Exquisite timing for the Rainbow radar to be down .

Extremely windy here last night, with some really big gusts at times. With week after week of calm, settled weather, I think I almost forgot what these northerly blasts are like.

Great to see some rain on its way, which is now making its way into western Vic. It definitely looks like northern areas of Vic will do best today, which I am sure will be welcome by many given the big dry. Although we're typically rain shadowed here for these types of events, we should still see something, as well as southern areas more generally.

Best system since prob Jan for much of the state, espicailly on and north of ranges who have had no rain for 3 or 4 months in some cases so great to see.

Cant beat huge thick cloudband crossing the country dropping 5 to 15mm for many, hopefully more 15 to 25 for much of Vic NE and NC will do more 25 to 50mm enjoy it

Light to occasionally moderate rain here for the last hour or so. Early days, but pleasantly surprised (so far) how much is making it over the Divide.

Rain is kicking into gear here. 4mm thus far.

Nhill has had 10mm today so far.

Nothing but windy filth & a big fat doughnut looking radar here.

Up to 15mm here, better than expected and will make our May total somewhat less pathetic! Maybe a bit more to come.

The ECL could offer us a significant start to June, which would be a nice follow-up.

18mm so far. Decent.

Of note - the Low has bombed to 972 HPa West of Tasmania today. Impressive. Surf's up!

Just crazy warmth here today with temps in the low 20s which are record for two days before June. More like a January day with gusty winds and a few spots of rain. This was never going to be good for southern TAS, but very handy for the north. Good falls norther central and northeast VIC. Bit underwhelming out west where I was expecting solid 10-20mm falls, but most spots seems to have settled on about 10mm.

Big blow here tomorrow with some showers. Progs have gust over 50 knots and waves approving 10m on open waters. Hoping to get out to see the waves on the weekend, though to be for me to surf

Rainfall wise, really waiting here on the ECL. Still looks solid in the progs though they are pretty fickle so I never lock them in until it starts to rain. Current runs showing general 50-100mm for eastern parts of TAS and Vic.

Rain overnight: Pine Tree Rivulet 79mm, Mt Barrow 64mm, Scottsdale 35mm, Poatina 31mm, Deloraine 29mm, Launceston 18mm, Hobart 0mm.
GFS had a downgrade on the East Coast LOW on its latest run. Hope it reverses on the next run.

17.5mm here, so we finish the month on 28mm (vs 77mm average). YTD of 202mm is exactly 100mm below average.

Nice to see some good falls in the 80-100mm range in the north-east.