Event discussion and analysis for Australia's northern tropics, including day to day weather and tropical cyclones.
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Well if you didn't know, we're in the full swing of the 2023-24 cyclone season!
Currently we don't have much info. JTWC hasn't even reported an Invest, BoM only reported it earlier today on their Cyclone website. What we do know is the MSLP (Mean Sea-Level Pressure) is currently 1000 hPa.
According to tracking data, the low is near 24.1S 154.9E as of 4pm 31/01/2024
A sub-tropical low 06U has formed off the southern coast of Queensland.
The low is likely to move northeast away from the coast during the rest of the week and into the weekend.
The potential for 06U to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Australian region increases to Low from Tuesday onwards.
There is a considerably large spread in area where 06U may move mid-to-late next week.
Possible scenarios include a westwards movement back towards the Queensland coast by late next week. The possible scenarios will continue to be monitored with updates provided on this page.
If this low does become of tropical cyclone intensity, it should be name Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. But we're not there yet
Chance of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later in the week.
A weak low (06U) is located northwest of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, outside of the Australian region (160E). The low is currently slow moving.
06U may adopt a westwards track during the next 24 hours and re-enter the Australian region on Monday or Tuesday, while remaining weak.
Late in the week, conditions become more favourable for tropical cyclone development and 06U may strengthen in the Coral Sea.
By next weekend, the system may turn back to the east. There is considerable uncertainty over how far west into the Australian region it may move before this happens.
Although a direct impact on the Queensland coast has become less likely, communities in tropical Queensland are advised to stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.
Cyclone Path as of 02-04 00Z: (you can click on the image to find what the symbols and colours mean)
Tropical Low 06U has left the Australian basin again, but now with unfavourable conditions to return. FMS (Fiji Meteorology Service) continues to monitor this low in the South Pacific basin as Tropical Depression 05F.
. Basin boundary is 160ºE and 06U is currently at 17.9S 162.8E.
