Developing low with more rain and storms: January 15-20

[hillybilly]

New substantial system showing up on the progs, with this one looking to favour Tasmania and perhaps parts of southern Victoria. Will keep the green summer going in Victoria, and hopefully put a dint in the drought affecting parts of Tasmania.

A trough starts to deepen on Monday, morning a cut off low on Tuesday. Rain and storms becoming widespread. No doubt models will wiggle between now and next week.

[Gordon]

Thanks for starting this thread hillybilly. Models are still messy, but to my untrained eye seem to be firming - and we need somewhere to discuss this system(s)!

[Petros]

If a low develops, should focus over/near Tassie, yep, something has to cool the SST anomaly in Bass Straight:



.....I wonder how the above chart would look if they did the honest thing and update the anomaly dataset from 1981-2010 to 1993-2023?

[Tassiedave]

GFS don't seem interested anymore on their latest run, just a weakish summer front followed by heat on the days following 20/1. ACCESS G still keen though. Pretty divergent forecasts only a few days out.

[Gordon]

Interesting article on rain for the coming week: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-13/ ... /103314364

Meanwhile, 8 day WATL still looks okay this morning, particularly for eastern and southeastern Tasmania.

[stevco123]

Cloudy, chance of a shower. Can BoM look out the window now and change their forecast? Looks like a wet day ahead. Another fail

[Gordon]

On the plus side, I do like an atmosphere that 'wants' to rain despite the forecast .

Our forecast was point blank 'No rain' (5% chance) and we've had light rain for about an hour.

[Dane]

Yes just a 5% chance of Rain in Ballarat today according to the BOM but there has been very light intermitant rain here since 1pm and even now there is still the odd spot.
Only 0.2mm's in the gauge at my place (Sebastopol) and the same amount at Ballarat Airport.
Temperature Maxed out at 17.7c here and 18.9c at Ballarat Airport.
Yesterday I reached 33.8c and Ballarat Airport was 32.5c

[Tassiedave]

GFS just threw this up for south east Tasmania. It will probably be gone by next run but it would be interesting if it eventuated.

[Gordon]

This system isn't getting any clearer! Yesterday, BOM's 4 dayer had the low center moving through central Bass Strait. Now they have it basically transiting south of Tassie

[hillybilly]

Models almost settled down. System is a bit slower moving into western areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The parent low then (strangely) moves northeast to cross near Tasmania around Thursday. Moderate to heavy falls for much of Tasmania, but hit and miss for Victoria. Quite warm ahead of the low with Hobart likely to approach 30C - highest so far this summer has been a very pleasant 28C.

Btw watch for the developing tropical depression. Could spread a putrid airmass over southern Australia. Latest EC has 850Ts over 30C into Victoria with precipitable water values over 50mm in just over a week.

[StratoBendigo]

Access-G also keeps throwing up weird inland deluges too for the next week or so.

Whacky. And rather tropical...

[StratoBendigo]

It's looking like another 15-30mm possible here this week. Quite humid again today, and easterly winds are picking up.

Incidentally, very wet overnight in Sydney.

[StratoBendigo]

It's looking like another 15-30mm possible here this week. Quite humid again today, and easterly winds are picking up.

Incidentally, very wet overnight in Sydney.

[Dane]

Thunder has been rumbling around for the last hour here but not much rain
just 0.8mm's here in Sebastopol and nothing at all at Ballarat Airport.
Temp down to 22c here now DP is 18c.
Reached 28.2c this afternoon 28.5c at the Airport

[Tassiedave]

Might affect us indirectly but a number of models throwing up a central Queensland cyclone middle of next week.

[wobbie]

Sneaky storm incoming eastern suburbs

[93ben]

Sneaky storm incoming

yeah it's at my place in Templestowe!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Midnight clothes line dash.
Lots of pretty colours on radar.

1.07am Torrential Rain..
horrid lightening.

[Wilko]

Bullseye in Moorabbin
Incredible lighting
Torrential
Might need a boat