Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

[Supercellimpact]

Weird setup tonight. Big falls under slow-moving cells, but nothing in most areas.

We got 2mm this afternoon. Most of the rainband is in NSW.

We got nothing out in Epsom.

[hillybilly]

Heaps of November records falling with this event across southern NSW then onto the south coast. Expect a few spots in the area near Eden have all ready gone over 400mm. Will wait to see when the obs come in at 9am. Would not be surprised to see the NSW November record fall with this. Just crazy.

For those wondering the SSTs explains a fair bit. Values off the NSW coast are locally over 6C above the recent average, which would put them about 8C above values back in the 1950s. Thats is bonkers. Peak rainfall intensity increases around 15% per degree of SST so that about doubles the peak rainfall rates that you can get compared to the same set up in the past.



Down here heavy showers but been going over the same spots. 20-25mm in the western and inner southern burbs of Hobart, but not much anywhere else.

For the mainland, system consolidates today near the south coast of NSW. Will absolutely pour. Surprised that the media aren’t really talking about this system. Strikes me as potentially very nasty for the worst affected regions. Not so convinced about Melbourne. Looks pretty strongly rainshadowed, with Gippsland and west central to be much wetter..

[Gordon]

Surprised that the media aren’t really talking about this system. Strikes me as potentially very nasty for the worst affected regions.

Suspect they're struggling with the mental gear shift from the El Nino heat/drought/fire thing, to this.

Steady rain set in here and may have to light the fire again - getting quite chilly. My preferred end to November though, and I've got lucky with today being an indoor work day .

[StratoBendigo]

A bit of a disaster for the agriculture industry along the Murray....

Summer rice crops might be ok if they can get some heat into them in the next few months.

[snowfall]

Steady, moderate rain here this morning. And just a light southeasterly breeze. 7mm so far.

[Skywalker]

I actually dislike the way BoM is going about this event. The chance of storms today was only ever possible to the north of the city, yet they still went ahead with a "one size fits all" approach. They really need to split their forecasting to 4 regions for Melbourne and its outskirts

Thank god someone else feels the same way when it comes to the BOM's lazy approach to Melbourne forecasting.

Very patchy light rain so far here which really isn't adding up to much. It does however keep things moist considering we have had 2 prior mornings of drizzle to start the week.

[Tassiedave]

85 mm at Swan Hill is huge!!

[Blackee]

Surprised that the media aren’t really talking about this system. Strikes me as potentially very nasty for the worst affected regions.

Suspect they're struggling with the mental gear shift from the El Nino heat/drought/fire thing, to this.

Steady rain set in here and may have to light the fire again - getting quite chilly. My preferred end to November though, and I've got lucky with today being an indoor work day .

ABC are onto it. Extensive reporting on The World Today. Another 20mm for us at Mansfield to 9am making 45mm for the last week. Lake Eildon level is trying to go down only to go up again after recent rain events. Currently 98.5% full.

[Petros]

Light rain with occasionally gusty easterly started here after midnight. Has become patchy since mid morning.

[Gordon]

Rain here appears light due to small droplet size, but is actually quite 'thick' and drenching if you have to go out in it (like I just did to check our overflowing water tanks!).

We're up to 20mm since this lot started early this morning, and it shows no sign of backing off.

[StratoBendigo]

21mm here since yesterday, 59mm in the past week. El-Nino?

Thankfully my brother-in-law's farm near Manangatang only had 10mm overnight. 2/3rds of their wheat crop is yet to be harvested.... Other farmers near Swan Hill not so fortunate.

[Blackee]

[quote=hillybilly post_id=125012 time=1701200857 user_id=82]

For those wondering the SSTs explains a fair bit. Values off the NSW coast are locally over 6C above the recent average, which would put them about 8C above values back in the 1950s. Thats is bonkers. Peak rainfall intensity increases around 15% per degree of SST so that about doubles the peak rainfall rates that you can get compared to the same set up in the past.

Incredible anomaly HB. Is this spike a global warming phenomenon or something different?

Radar and Sat look scary for NSW south east and Vic south coast.

Wondering if Melb likely to see more rain from the wrap or if the low is too far east...

[Macedonian]

We have had 114mm since it started raining last Friday. Very happy.

[Gordon]

52mm here since the rain started early yesterday morning. Still going - mainly the same dense small droplet stuff that confuses the radar, but it sure adds up!

Haven't done the exact math, but our November total will be looking a lot less embarrassing than it was a week ago.

[Pengaz]

8.75mm since Tuesday. We’ve been stuck in the rain shadow particularly with the strong easterlies yesterday.

Rain blob looks like it’s slowly contracting eastward, so not expecting too much more from this point. Next weeks warmth will get the grass and weeds going!

MTD: 69mm. After the big October we had, happy to see the heaviest rain avoid us this time around!

[snowfall]

26mm over the past 24 hours here. Since Friday, we've had 67mm and we'll finish the month on 93mm.

A massive turnaround. We've gone from what was looking like one of our driest Novembers to an above average month. Both October and November have recorded above average rain here. But it's still no ordinary spring; a couple of concentrated rain events have saved otherwise dry months.

Good to see most areas in Vic got rain out of this system. Reports of flooding now occurring on the NSW south coast. Not surprising given that they've been at the bulls eye for this system and it's still raining today.

[Petros]

Poured out 22mm last evening, looks like 50mm+ more in there already. Rain very heavy last night for many hours, Lake Glenmaggie released a pulse of water (33,000MLd for 1.5 hours - 35,000 MLd is the major flood level) overnight, seemingly to hold level at 92.5%, its back within the minor flood range now. I'd say that response was due to local rain near the actual dam itself, inflows from up in the mountains are yet to show up in the upper stream gauges - will be interesting to see what falls up Licola way over the next 6-8 hours, especially if the cut off low bombs during today.

[Petros]

Emptied out 48mm just now, been mostly light drizzle patches here today with moderate SE breeze, tally is now 94mm since Saturday. 15 deg min last night to a 15.5 deg max here today by my old thermometer.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

I forget what the sun looks like.

Lots of kindling and bigger to pick up after last nights big breezes….

[hillybilly]

Not really Tas’s system. Quite unusual to get such a persistent block just sit at the same latitude like this. We’ve had days of humid easterlies but mainly trade wind type showers that build up overnight and early morning, then fade in the arvo. Only 3mm so far for this part down here, though much better on the bigs hills will locally more than 40mm. Close to 30mm for the date range.

There’s still an upper trough and weak low to come on Saturday. That looks very good for west central tbh. Showery also for eastern areas of Vic and TAS.