Cool start to November followed by an extended warm spell: November 1-10

[hillybilly]

Very slow moving pattern with a big high well south very slowly moving east. We start with cool southerly flow then end up with a long lived north to northeast flow. It’s quite troughie, but showers looks fairly sparse. Perhaps a chance of thunderies as we move into next week.

[snowfall]

The pattern sure is looking slow. A big high will dominate for the next 10 days at least, gradually making its way to the Tasman where it then sits for a while. Looks like rainfall from an associated trough will be mainly along the east coast, extending into the eastern half of Vic. Western Vic looks mostly dry at this stage.

I know it's only the start of the month, but it's not looking too great for rain at this stage. It's a long way out, but looks like the MJO might deliver a fairly strong phase in our region towards the end of the month, so maybe better chances then. November is typically our wettest month here but... the cards are stacked differently this year.

Not a bad October though. We finished with 96mm, which is above average. Feels like a bit of a fluke and most of that fell in the first half. Our average max was 17.6c, which is just slightly below the 17.9c we had for September.

[Tassiedave]

According to ACCESS G next Thursday and Friday look epic heat wise for the south east.

[hillybilly]

Progs really starting to look thundery now then some significant heat to end the sequence. The heat is jumping around a bit, but some runs are throwing up numbers into the low to mid 40s in the Mallee which would be an early season record for VIC. Horrible heat for so early in “summer”.

Before then showers and storms most days starting from around Monday.

[Gordon]

Looking more and more like a sustained period of reasonable 'troughy' rainfall for eastern and central Vic.

As things stand, we will be right on the western edge of this system - fingers crossed!

Heat wise, can't see anything above mid-twenties for us, and perhaps quite a cold patch in about a week.

[hillybilly]

Quiet a showery Saturday here then a glorious Sunday. Winds starting to go more northerly from here as the surface trough slowly deepens. Showers and the odd storm slowly spreading south and west which should peak around Wednesday. Steering isn’t very strong so expect things to be patchy with some heavier falls but also some misses. Sea breezes will play a big part on the flats.

[Didjman]

What are peoples thoughts re storms the next 2 days - where / when? I am thinking Wimmera, Northern, North Central, Central, NE, Gippsland?

[Gordon]

What are peoples thoughts re storms the next 2 days - where / when? I am thinking Wimmera, Northern, North Central, Central, NE, Gippsland?

Looks like a pretty intense storm just east of Geelong right now - black on the radar!

[dazrain]

What are peoples thoughts re storms the next 2 days - where / when? I am thinking Wimmera, Northern, North Central, Central, NE, Gippsland?

Looks like a pretty intense storm just east of Geelong right now - black on the radar!

thunder and lightning in Rye on and off last hour.
Not much rain.

[hillybilly]

Great shot there of Rye. That cell hit a couple of amateur stations south of Geelong with 5-10mm in quick time.

Tomorrow looks very active for VIC, while Wednesday and Thursday see action spread to TAS. There’s a bit of convection showing up overnight so don’t be surprised if there are storms early tomorrow around VIC then a second round mid arvo. Steering is pretty light so expect patchy heavy falls.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

2.30am local dogs had picked it long time ago.
Lights and sounds passing below us…

[Pengaz]

Frequent thunderstorms here since 4am. Great sound to wake up to on a day off. Might have scored 5mm but some amateur stations are showing over 10mm on the other side of town.

Edit: just tipped out 13.5mm from the earlier storms! Nice and sticky out there now.

[snowfall]

That's a great result Pengaz.

Very warm here already. Currently 22c with a very strong and gusty northerly wind. Will likely get into the high 20s today, maybe close to 30. Things are drying out rapidly here now, following little rain over the past few weeks and a lot of wind.

Should be some showers and/or storms about later today. Areas further south and east of here might do OK. I think we will struggle to get anything, as we're usually rain shadowed during strong northerlies. Might do a bit better tomorrow as the trough pushes through.

[Blackee]

Woke to heavy rain here around 6am with about 5mm falling writhing the hour. We’re still very green and lush up here in the NE so this freshened things up nicely. Expecting more something late arvo here.

[stevco123]

All overhyped to be honest. Expecting increased clouds, and then a storm somewhere over the northeast of the state, where nobody lives.
My prediction? 0mm for Melbourne. This morning's light show was it down here.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Could be a very photographic day, started already.

[Gordon]

Nervously watching the sky and the radar with that 'right on the edge' feeling... Could be a lot or nothing.

[dazrain]

cell north of Rye

[stevco123]

Sparking no more than 10km from here. Great picturesque view

[James]

had some distant deep rumbles last night but nothing else. Today looks like its slipping too much south and its getting late, forecast now says less likely this evening although the models said it was ripe for this area now until dusk, so who knows? watch and see i guess!