A cool showery end to winter

[hillybilly]

A cool showery system to end winter with a slow moving trough eventually cutting off into a low in the Tasman Sea. The system is not particularly cold, so rain in the alps to start, but will cool towards the end of the week. Totals look ok in the usual wet spots, while most should get some. It’s been a really lean month, so fingers crossed this one delivers.

[hillybilly]

Few showers overnight and now a mild almost warm day ahead with showers increasing. Uppers are really warm. Already 7C at Mt Buller just past 9am. Far too warm for winter

Bit slow on the pickup but Eyre scored a 35.4C on Sunday which is a new southern Australia record (south coast). Probably lucky this system has cloud and flatten a bit.

[Gordon]

Thanks for the updated thread once again HB.

Light showers on and off most of the morning here, and continuing now; perhaps getting a tad heavier. Nothing was forecast until evening, but we'll take it, especially as I'm working indoors today .

[hillybilly]

Another mild day with 18C. Had patchy light rain this arvo. Hoping to pick up a decent fall overnight, though progs are jumpy. Currently sat on about half the august average, so been pretty dry.

Looks like Hobart will score its second warmest maxs on record for August behind 1982, and warmest winter maxs. Not great for snow lovers etc.

[hillybilly]

Rainy night with 5mm. Good to get a bit, but monthly total still sits below 40mm Few showers to come today.

Bit underwhelming totals for much of VIC, but good falls for western Tas. Should be some chunky showers today for southern VIC east of the city and the western third of TAS. Airmass slowly cooling, but still crazy mild for winter post frontal.

Next week looks downright warm. If EC sticks will see early season warm records.

[Gordon]

6mm here and still raining, so another useful drop - although still going to be well below average for August.

Running about 1C above average for maximums; 0.5C for minimums.

[samboz]

Talk about dry - over last three months this end of Vic has been lacking decent rain, eg Totals SALE/55MM, BAIRNSDALE 62MM & ORBOST 42MM.
Surprisingly, as I speak it's pelting down on the tin roof and sounds great, 1MM for to 0900 and be lucky to get 5MM today.
Glad I don't have livestock these days and feel for those that have.

[QldTwister]

6mm here as well but very patchy light falls for most and nothing for northern Vic

Classic El Nino pos IOD years where models show decent rain but much less than forecast falls, front had that classic dry look to it so sad heading back to few years of this pattern I reckon, missing 20-22 alreday lol.

Rough spring for crops to after an excellent few years hopfeully still do well but Oct Nov prob going to be very hot n dry

[snowfall]

It does seem like we’re in that pattern now where systems struggle to deliver anything substantial. It’s a shame that the El Niño couldn’t have been offset by a negative IOD coming off last year’s set up - it’s amazing how quickly it all just flipped with the double whammy of El Niño and positive IOD. A somewhat short-lived spring with an early start to summer is very likely.

That said, we managed 9mm from the system last night plus the occasional shower today. This takes August to about 59mm, still below average but not too extreme. Not feeling very confident about September, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see below average months for the rest of spring and summer. Hopefully there will still be scope for the occasional surprise downpour or thunderstorm…

[hillybilly]

Few showers here the last 24 hours but didn’t quite tip the gauge. Winter ends how it’s been most days with a mild one.

Apparently Baw Baw, Lake Mt and Mt Selwyn are closing this weekend for the year. Don’t know I’ve seen that before. Historically El Niño and positive IOD years tend to be dry but snow usually sticks with colder temperatures at least at night and during the middle of winter. This winter just record warmth

Ironically, EC now showing a cold outbreak late next week. Can’t keep up. Yesterday it was showing record warmth. Still time to split the difference or flip flop again.

[Gordon]

Ironically, EC now showing a cold outbreak late next week. Can’t keep up. Yesterday it was showing record warmth.

As one who has to regularly plan outdoor work, I'm finding forecasts more than a few days out particularly unreliable over the last couple of months.

Meanwhile, we received another 3mm to 9am, making 9mm for the dates, and an August total of just 46mm - well below average (although by how much I can't say right now because I've just noticed a glitch in my spreadsheet!)

[StratoBendigo]

Our August rainfall total is 23mm which is very poor. Lucky we had a really wet June - the crops would never have grown otherwise. The canola crops are looking nice around here, but without finishing rains there might be a lot of grain crops cut for hay this spring. Demand is starting to pick up considerably for it in NSW/Qld.

A chilly 1c this morning. Some signs of cold polar air incursions next week, but on the dry side still.

[stevco123]

The resorts closing early are closing too early and losing money at their own peril. Snow is not done just yet. I have no idea who they're listening to but their (most likely greenies) consultants need to be sacked and replaced with people who think logically.

Next week looking topsy turvy. Even this weekend was meant to be 23-25 initially, now looking like a 19-20 degree weekend. Models just like to play havoc it seems.

[QldTwister]

Snow resorts need snow to ski on no, so if no snow cant do much up there

Yeah spring is always a tough time for models as we slowly go from winter to summer, even tougher that we are now going from wet cycle, to dry cycle so expect to see lots of big flips and swings next 3 to 4 months, model waltz shall be enteraining but annoying.

Yeah not looking good for northern Vic after a great start, hopefully few systems can sneak in Sept and Oct droping 10 to 20mm to keep them going but I dont think they will heat and dry will stuff them which sucks.

Cold 2mm here today weekend looking nice and Sun Monday should be great

[hillybilly]

The resorts closing early are closing too early and losing money at their own peril. Snow is not done just yet. I have no idea who they're listening to but their (most likely greenies) consultants need to be sacked and replaced with people who think logically.

They have no snow. It’s been a record warm winter, and I bet everyone’s basically cancelled their holidays. Most staff are casual, so who pays them when there’s no body there and no work to do?

September will bring snow, but it’s almost never that snow increases through the month at those elevations now a days. The peak is past them. They should have a metre of snow on the ground. That then slowly thaws. They’ve got zero and nothing in the forecast for a week or more.

Unfortunately, this is not an unexpected winter. Fit a line to the data and this is now a once every five winters type of year. This will be very soon average, then not long after that cooler than average. Nice beach weather for Sydney and Brisbane, but good luck if you want to ski

[hillybilly]

Showery one to finish winter down here with a mm in the gauge. Scored a little bit of hail mid arvo. Mountain picked up a dusting which is good to see.

Slowly clearing then a blustery and quite warm start to next week. Another westerly front to follow. Patterns quite progressive atm, but overall pretty dull tbh. Can someone arrange a big cut off, thundery set up, or cold outbreak please

[Australis(Shell3155)]

The biggest and brightest rainbow this afternoon…
Over the backdrop of mount D as black as black.
No pic as was driving, it was a double also…

[stevco123]

The resorts closing early are closing too early and losing money at their own peril. Snow is not done just yet. I have no idea who they're listening to but their (most likely greenies) consultants need to be sacked and replaced with people who think logically.

They have no snow. It’s been a record warm winter, and I bet everyone’s basically cancelled their holidays. Most staff are casual, so who pays them when there’s no body there and no work to do?

September will bring snow, but it’s almost never that snow increases through the month at those elevations now a days. The peak is past them. They should have a metre of snow on the ground. That then slowly thaws. They’ve got zero and nothing in the forecast for a week or more.

Unfortunately, this is not an unexpected winter. Fit a line to the data and this is now a once every five winters type of year. This will be very soon average, then not long after that cooler than average. Nice beach weather for Sydney and Brisbane, but good luck if you want to ski

I saved your post and set a reminder in my phone to revisit it in August 2028.

Prediction was for no more snow in our alps after 2013. I have a herald sun article that says this (gotta dig it up). It's now 2023...

This summer definitely looking hot and boring, just like the past winter. I can't remember such a non event period for so long.

[hillybilly]

The resorts closing early are closing too early and losing money at their own peril. Snow is not done just yet. I have no idea who they're listening to but their (most likely greenies) consultants need to be sacked and replaced with people who think logically.

They have no snow. It’s been a record warm winter, and I bet everyone’s basically cancelled their holidays. Most staff are casual, so who pays them when there’s no body there and no work to do?

September will bring snow, but it’s almost never that snow increases through the month at those elevations now a days. The peak is past them. They should have a metre of snow on the ground. That then slowly thaws. They’ve got zero and nothing in the forecast for a week or more.

Unfortunately, this is not an unexpected winter. Fit a line to the data and this is now a once every five winters type of year. This will be very soon average, then not long after that cooler than average. Nice beach weather for Sydney and Brisbane, but good luck if you want to ski

I saved your post and set a reminder in my phone to revisit it in August 2028.

Prediction was for no more snow in our alps after 2013. I have a herald sun article that says this (gotta dig it up). It's now 2023...

This summer definitely looking hot and boring, just like the past winter. I can't remember such a non event period for so long.

There never was a quote for no snow beyond 2013. There will be snow for many years to come. Snow lines have risen about 200m, so it’s much less widespread and reliable, but it still happens. Would need to rise another 500m before semi permanent cover completely disappears from the VIC alps, around 2000m for snow to disappear completely .

But it’s clear that a year as warm as 2023 which will very soon be normal is too warm for the lower resorts to be economic. Another degree and Buller will join them. After that Falls and Hotham. We’ve known this since the Victorian Resorts Commission published their first report into climate change and snow 30 years ago. Five more years of data will just make the obvious even more so.

[hillybilly]

Cool start to spring here with 13C. Nice weekend to come.

If EC sticks the week ahead is going to bring some pretty wild weather. It’s been very jumpy so guess we will see