Blustery change: July 27-

[hillybilly]

Looks like July will finish with a stronger front. Will get gusty then a band of showers or rain, followed by a shot of colder air. Not a particularly impressive front, but after a dull July will make more a bit of weather and a chance to catch up on rainfall.

[hillybilly]

Front looks a bit wetter this morning with follow ups for next week. Might see some colder air about this time next week.

[StratoBendigo]

Front looks a bit wetter this morning with follow ups for next week. Might see some colder air about this time next week.

GFS is also toying with a powerful cold front around August 3 - 4th, with possible follow-up fronts. Rather mild weather beforehand.

[hillybilly]

Mild windy day today ahead of the first front in the sequence. Not a remarkable front, but will break up the recent boredom a bit. Going to get very windy, more so for Tasmania with a very tight pressure gradient for much of the sequence.

Progs for next week a loopy

[stevco123]

0.9 this morning here. First good frost of the year. This is more El-Nino ish. Cold nights mild days.
Very strange that there are no strong cold fronts as el nino tends to throw up some cracker cold outbreaks. There are 2 more months of winter i suppose and the strongest fronts are usually August and September anyway

[StratoBendigo]

A bit chilly in parts of Antarctica atm:


August 4th seems to be the next decent chance of polar air over us.

[Sean]

We're so overdue for a decent front. When was the last good one? The start of winter?

This is turning into the most boring winter ever.

[hillybilly]

A bit chilly in parts of Antarctica atm:


August 4th seems to be the next decent chance of polar air over us.

Was the coolest in a few year. Not widely known but the Antarctic plateau actually experiences an inverse greenhouse effect. It’s an extremely unusual feature of their mid winter climate. In the absence of global warming everywhere else their climate would be getting colder the higher CO2 goes.

[hillybilly]

Windy warm night here. 13C at 3am. Made the mistake of keeping the blanket on the bed. Far too warm. In mid summer it would have been a pretty warm night for us.

Great to see vic get some rain. Waiting on some showers to reach here in the next hour or two. Will usher in a blowie pretty wet few days down here. Wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see some local flooding in the west with some intense westerly gradients sourcing very moist and quite mild air from way back in the Indian Ocean. VIC will mostly stay one the edge of the main action.

Progs for late next week are loopy. Can’t keep up

[Derwent]

20 degrees booked in for next week ! No wonder I have a headache

[hillybilly]

Another really mild day ahead. Next front in this sequence looms for tomorrow. It will mostly slip south of Victoria but looks like a ripper for Tasmania with heavy falls developing out west and moderate falls extending across much of the rest. Rains on and off for much of Monday.

Next week looks active. First a burst of warmth. Would not be surprised to see early season heat records fall, then a band of rain. Fire indices get up in western NSW potential sneaking into northwest Vic. Not what you expect in the first days of August.

[Blackee]

20 degrees booked in for next week ! No wonder I have a headache

Yeah these persistent mild/warm temps are concerning and very El Niño. I recall spikes in temp mid-winter but not a string of 16-19 c temps in July lasting weeks, in Melbourne. We should be seeing 12-14c maxima. Definitely lately noticing movement in plants, grass and bees around the place.

Hopefully August chucks up a cold outbreak or three.

[Derwent]

Another plus 18c day in south Tasmania October just rolls on. Everyone in the neighbourhood going about Spring chores.
No surprise though the Global Temperature records are being smashed for July according to various news sources.

[hillybilly]

18.4C here today. Lovely day, but wrong for July. Trees are now all in bud, and cherry trees in Hobart are now flowering. Noticeably drier too, with so much “warm” sunny weather. Really need a solid rain event here.

Bit of rain tomorrow, and then second stronger band on Monday. Not much for Vic, unfortunately.

[hillybilly]

Blowing a gale down here and warm. Was 16C at 5am. Few light showers, but not troubled the score.

Hoping to at least get a mm or two later.

[snowfall]

The non-winter rolls on. Sunny and mild again this morning.

We did have a string of fairly cold mornings earlier in the week, which has helped bring down our average minimum for the month, although it's still almost 2 degrees above. Average maximum is running about 1 degree above. What is more unusual is the amount of sunshine recently and what feels more like spring.

We had around 7mm overnight Friday, but the month is only on about 30mm. Definitely a dry month, especially for winter.

Not expecting much if anything for rain today, with the best of it slipping south. Maybe a better chance on Thursday/Friday, but still waiting for a really decent rain event.

[Petros]

Looks like a wild event for Tassie Friday:

[hillybilly]

Cracking squall line through Melbourne and a cracking squall line through Hobart at the same time. That wouldn’t happen often.

Wild day down here. Crazy warm start, then cooled basically all day and with that squall is now back to proper winter for a day or two. 6mm in the gauge, and some light snow on the mountain.

Some pretty high numbers over the mainland with mid to high 20s well south in NSW. The subtropic warmth isn’t going anywhere.

We’ve got two fronts tomorrow for TAS, but which most slip under VIC. Then a sharp warm up for mid/late week before the next system.

[hillybilly]

Absolutely crazy weather down here. MAATSUYKER Island has seen a 178km/hr gust which is a new July record. Thankfully we didn’t get that here, but would guess numerous 100km/hr plus gusts. House shaking whistling gusts. Not seen anything like this since the June 2020 storm in the Dandenongs. Thankfully around the house our trees are all banksia and tea tree so nothing substantial.

Just on 10mm of rain for the 24 hours though with so much wind expect a big under read.

One more frost for later today then mild mid week. EC and GFS showing a big system for then end of the week. Fingers crossed that sticks

[Blackee]

Cracking squall line through Melbourne and a cracking squall line through Hobart at the same time. That wouldn’t happen often.

Wild day down here. Crazy warm start, then cooled basically all day and with that squall is now back to proper winter for a day or two. 6mm in the gauge, and some light snow on the mountain.

Some pretty high numbers over the mainland with mid to high 20s well south in NSW. The subtropic warmth isn’t going anywhere.

We’ve got two fronts tomorrow for TAS, but which most slip under VIC. Then a sharp warm up for mid/late week before the next system.

Yeah the squad line arrived with a bang but was over 5 mins after it arrived so very little rain bayside Elwood. GFS looks nice for some actual weather next weekend