Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

[hillybilly]

Guess a thread to cover this long long mid winter mild spell. Comped absence of winter happening atm in what is usually the coldest time of the year.

Current forecasts have every day above average in Melbourne and Hobart. Hopefully this ends with an equivalent length polar blast.

14C down in Howden already at 6:30am, and he’s for something around 18C. Suspect that’s very close to the record for this time of year.

[Macedonian]

Yes it's boring as hell. 18 in Melbourne yesterday and an even 10°max at my place. To think when I first started recording at Mt Macedon twenty years ago I could get the entire winter and longer without going over 10° now I get at least one or two higher than 10 days in each winter month.

[StratoBendigo]

This warm weather is originating from the warm pool of water in the Mid-Indian Ocean.

Looks like colder nights early next week, and then cold fronts around July 20 - 22.

[Tassiedave]

Hobart avge daily temperature so far this July - 14.3 degrees. Long term average 11.8. Record 13.9 in 2010. Next 7 days 18,16,13,15,16,15,15

[jimmyay]

Don’t mind a few days warmth tbh. Breaks up the winter nicely and allows for more comfortable time spent out of doors. Yes, little excitement though!

[hillybilly]

On track for a heap of record high July minimums overnight in Tasmania. Grove is currently nearly 1.5C above its previous record, Hobart about 1C above the previous record. Will then launch into day temps just short of 20C. Just on a mm overnight, which actually allowed for the coolest temperatures through down drafts and evaporation.

Here’s the SSTs feeding upstream into the westerlies. Warm almost everywhere. They are unusually warm because the air is warm, and the air is a warm because the SSTs are warm. Goballly June SSTs and sea ice was the lowest on record by a long way. It’s getting hard to get good cold spell when that’s the background .

Pretty nervous about what spring and then summer will bring.

[StratoBendigo]

Clear skies and no wind and we managed a chilly 0.8c start to the day. About time!

No rain in sight for us, but definitely looks colder this time next week.

[Tassiedave]

Tasmania reached 20 degrees in July. Bushy Park recorded 20.0 degrees at 12.54 pm!

[Derwent]

Yes very close to record warmth down here record set in 2013 18.8 , today 18.7
Now the night brings winds with predicted gusts over 100 kmr
Spring has sprung really poor Winter thus far

[hillybilly]

Tasmania reached 20 degrees in July. Bushy Park recorded 20.0 degrees at 12.54 pm!

That’s a record for the usually cold site in the depths of the coldest week of the year

19C at home today. Tomorrow looks similar.

Some showers spreading across southern Victoria and Tasmania later tomorrow, reaching Melbourne around mid day Saturday.

Not really seeing signs of this west to northwest stream atm.

[dazrain]

what is the record average minimum for the month of July in Melbourne?

Currently running at a ridiculous 10.2

[snowfall]

Shocking wind overnight here. No significant damage thankfully but it was enough to wake me up many times.

The minimums here have also been crazy. We're running at more than 3 degrees above average for the minimums and about 1 degree above for the maxes. For rain, I suspect this will also be our first below average month since February. Just 14mm so far for the month.

It has definitely been a lacklustre winter - very mild apart from a stretch of about 10 days during the latter half of June and even then it was barely below the average. A feature here has also been the wind, probably a result of the SAM being predominantly negative. With so many windy days, and gales whipping up every now and then, it almost feels remarkable when we actually have a calm day. And it shows in the garden. Despite having decent rain during Autumn and June, the ground would normally be boggy by now but it's very much solid. The wind has clearly lifted the evaporation rate, plus the milder temps probably haven't helped.

Fingers crossed the pattern shifts soon. Looks like it will be getting a bit colder next week at least.

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like a string of subzero mornings in the coming week. A cold 11c here today after a 1c minimum, so a proper July day. Lake Eppalock is also overflowing.

[jimmyay]

Been a couple of fronts the last week or few which have given me El Niño vibes, little rain, dribs and drabs which wet the ground but don’t really deliver a lot…droughts do sometimes start in an insidious way like this….

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Our grounds have turned back to solid not slippery mush with the winds.

Trip to see Lake Eildon nearly full and the rivers close to bursting their banks.

Days seem tolerable then around 11am this cold sets in..
Did see the sun albeit brief one day, ready for blue to return.

[hillybilly]

Picked up a nice cold front Saturday morning with a few heavy showers then a warm front Saturday night with a band of strati form rain. All up 8mm in the last 24 hours here. Been a wet week with just shy of 40mm, which is welcome after a couple of dry months.

Mild pattern continues. There was a bit of snow on the mountain but mostly washed away. Tis 12C here currently at 6am.

This pattern of weak fronts and mostly mild westerlies has another week at least to run. Progs looks like El Niño but the really warm Indian Ocean is entraining a lot of mild air when usually El Niño mid winters are quite crisp and fronts usually quite chilly.

Looks like a half decent run of frosts in parts of northern Victoria which sits quite close to the ridge of high pressure.

[Didjman]

Tis 12C here currently at 6am.

Wow for Tassie! 1c here in Wallan

[StratoBendigo]

-2c this morning. That's more like it....

[snowfall]

2.5c here this morning. Currently, bright, sunny and calm.

Had very light rain yesterday but not enough to register in the gauge.

[hillybilly]

Another really mild one down here with a minimum of 10C. Snows all gone on the mountain Climbed up it yesterday, was crazy windy with graupel blown by 100km/hr winds, but got quite mild in the afternoon. Should get a top up on Tuesday but then mild again on Wednesday and Thursday.

Bit of a contrast with vic which is sat under a high with very dry air allowing chilly nights and mild days.

That said looking at data, expect we are going to see plenty of stations have their warmest July on record. Coldstream, for example is running nearly 2C above its previous record high minimum, while Hobart’s max and min are both running well above the previous warmest month on record.

Todays looks mild most places. Front for Tuesday bringing somewhat cooler air. Pattern repeats Tuesday and Wednesday.