Troughs and a low 5 June - ?

[Gordon]

Already flagged by hillybilly and Strato, this one is looking like it deserves its own thread - mods please feel free to tweak heading & dates.

Very weird-looking system forecast to impact most of south-eastern Australia from the start of next week, with double inland troughs being joined by a low later. According to WATL, very widespread rain from 15-50mm across most of Tas, Victoria and NSW.

Doesn't look great for snow, but the rain will be welcome for many areas. (Except for western Tas where it probably means more floods, but on the flip side, more water in the giant hydro storages.)

[Australis(Shell3155)]

2mm already and still raining, Saturday b4 sun up

[hillybilly]

System holding nicely in the progs overnight. Guess the features that are worth watching.

Potential to hook into moisture from the very warm Coral and Tasman Seas. Progs differing a bit, but if this happens will see heavy falls on the northern slopes of both TAS and VIC.

The exceptionally warm air with the system. 850Ts are peak around 11 to 12C mid week into southern Victoria. I’d watch for the Tasmanian June record to come under pressure. Could also see the odd site in vic make a run at records. The Australian record also looks vulnerable (probably fall short but not by much). The warm air also allows almost tropical humidities with this system so rainfall rates could be high. Tis going to be a June long weekend for staying in the lodges for those folks who can afford to head up the mountains

[stevco123]

All I'm seeing is 16s and 17s next week for Melbourne, followed by 13s for next weekend. Hardly record breaking locally.
For this week there was talk of 2 or 3 days of 20 degrees, yet it never happened. Yet again all i saw was 17s and 18s.

Definitely wet however, by the look of it with no snow just yet

[snowfall]

It's indeed looking interesting this coming week - hopefully it all sticks.

10mm here overnight and this morning, which is a tad more than I expected. Currently we have thick fog and the odd shower passing through.

[Petros]

After a weeks of constant ABC reports that the BOM is predicting dry months ahead, looks like we are heading into a period of repeated damp frontal systems.

[StratoBendigo]

5mm overnight and this morning.

It does not feel or look anything like a typical El-Nino yet. Some big rain totals forecast here over the next 10 days.

Would pretty much set up the winter harvest if it comes off.

[hillybilly]

Almost broke the Victorian June record today. 25.4C at Mildura. Heap of site records from the Mallee back into South Australia. Port Augusta at 29.6C broke the old record by 2.6C. Be almost certain that is the hottest ever recorded that far south in June. Didn’t expect that warmth today.

Shows how warm the incoming airmass is.

Ironically, headed for about 0C here tonight in southern Tasmania on the cold side of the high

[hillybilly]

0C here this morning. Looks like a nice day. Horse paddock is all ice

Progs upping rainfall totals on latest runs. Really share it around the whole of southern NSW. VIC and TAS. Awesome if that comes off.

Quite amazing that VIC continues to do well for rain given the rapidly emerging IOD and El Niño. Let’s hope that continues the whole year Tas has a less strong relationship to those drivers so we can often miss the worst of the big droughts. Currently this feels more like an early 1990s event where the dry is mainly in NSW and Queensland than a 2000s event which tended to really hit the southeast.

[StratoBendigo]

0C here this morning. Looks like a nice day. Horse paddock is all ice

Progs upping rainfall totals on latest runs. Really share it around the whole of southern NSW. VIC and TAS. Awesome if that comes off.

Quite amazing that VIC continues to do well for rain given the rapidly emerging IOD and El Niño. Let’s hope that continues the whole year Tas has a less strong relationship to those drivers so we can often miss the worst of the big droughts. Currently this feels more like an early 1990s event where the dry is mainly in NSW and Queensland than a 2000s event which tended to really hit the southeast.

Agree. Winters 1991 and 1993 were good examples where we had good winter rains in an El-Nino, while NSW/QLD were not in great shape.

The consensus for the coming week is around 50-80mm here. That might even get Lake Eppalock hitting 100% again (it's currently 89%) and the Campaspe is starting to flow a bit at Redesdale after the rain in the past week.

[Gordon]

5mm here from that 'pre' system, then fine and lovely, then followed by 6 hours of the worst fog I have ever seen around here. In broad daylight, visibility was often less than 40 metres, then when night fell, you can imagine how much that deteriorated. Bad time to be doing lots of driving - exhausting!

Cracker day today, 16C now with a light northerly and lots of sun. Rain progs aren't backing off!

Btw, I try not to get into too much examination of the climate forecasts because I find the subject so frustrating.

However, at the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, I note that the BOM forecasts themselves tend to talk about percentage chance of something happening: e.g. say, a 30% chance of a wetter than normal month/quarter. Although that is saying 3 out 10 times, things will be wetter than normal (not crazy long odds by any means) the focus becomes the 7 out of 10 times when it might be drier than normal. Then it's the commentary, even from BOM themselves, which slips towards making it seem as if the forecasts are a certainty. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-03/ ... /102399004

We humans are understandably obsessed with seeing the future, but the reality is, whether its interest rates or weather, we usually don't know what the future holds. (Except for a negative IOD in my area - that has never failed to bring at least average rainfall here. )

[hillybilly]

Stunning day today down here under a thumping inversion. Walked up Kunanyi (700m vertical) where the temperature was 8C and the dewpoint around -15C. At 11am it was still near zero in the Huon and Derwent Valleys which is a crazy contrast with the top. Visibility was the best I’ve seen. Could see well over 100km up there today.

Couple of photos of this mornings frost and one of the few remaining patches of snow. Btw few record mins back in SA, including Adelaide and Cape Borda. Last one didn’t get below 20C last night

Progs not much changed. Warm and wet. This looks like a northern slopes of VIC and TAS special. Reminds me a bit of the October system last year, but not quite as strong.

[snowfall]

Nice pics HB.

Yes, models have stayed fairly consistent. Definitely looks like the main focus to be across northern areas, with a degree of rain shadowing in southern parts but still widespread falls. The only bit I’m not looking forward to is the wind, which looks like it will be a persistent feature for much of the week and these set ups can make it very windy here.

A max today of 17.4c here. That makes it the warmest June day I have recorded in 7 years. Currently it’s almost midnight and 13.4c, which would not be unusual for summer.

[hillybilly]

-1C here this morning. First subzero for the year. Progs developing strong rainshadows for this system for both southern Vic and southeast Tas. Very wet on the northern slopes.

[QldTwister]

Great looking system for SE Inland Australia widespread 25 to 50mm this week with isol 80 to 120mm along the ranges after dry month or 2 very very welcome

Ok if south misses out we have been doing alright and many more fronts to come in coming weeks

Loving the warmth but know there is lots of cold to come

Had 40mm here last 3 weeks things are green wet and lush locally.

Already 20-40mm in parts of western NSW overnight
2 to 10mm in the Mallee they will see that again today then and loads more widespread soaking rain on Wed Thurs

So good for all the farming communtites in SA, NSW and northern Vic

[Gordon]

Progs seem to be ramping up for us, with Wednesday the big day.

I'm developing a split personality on this one : half of me wants to 'bank' any big rain we can get, and the other half doesn't want rain on Wednesday as I have a full day of outdoor work then, which has to go ahead .

[hillybilly]

Couple of shots this morning. Was even frost on the local jetty. Some crazy low max temps in some of the valleys here today, with widespread maxs in the 3-5C range. They might well be bettered before 9am, and aren’t records but still notable. Heavy frost followed by all day fog.

Progs look big for northern parts of VIC and TAS. Strong rainshadows for the south. Expecting about 15mm here, but could well top 150mm on the northern tier. Similar set up for VIC.

Btw Perth did very well overnight. Apparently wettest July day in about twenty years. Big storm surge on the Swan River with flooding above the minor flood. That would be almost entirely sea level related.

[StratoBendigo]

8mm in Round One.

Big Wednesday is still looking quite ominous. Potentially one of the biggest June downpours for a long time. I remember early June 1991 and 1995 being quite similar. (Several days of humid Northerlies, culminating in several inches of rain)

[Gordon]

A mere 2.5mm here (rainshadowed), but I see Mt William in the Grampians has picked up 38mm to 9am - 57mm mtd. Seems to be a real sweet spot in recent months, and much-needed to keep those Grampians catchments topped up.

[snowfall]

Just 1.4mm here, also rain shadowed. Strong, gusty wind overnight too, which will be the case for the next few days. Currently cloudy, windy, with the odd spot of rain.

Will be some big totals in northern areas by Friday.