A deep low for Easter 2023

[hillybilly]

General thread for the big system approaching as we head towards Easter. Models have been very jumpy, but can be pretty certain there will be a big low, heavy rainfall for northern and western Tasmania, and probably some snow in the alps on the backside of the event. Could get quite warm ahead of the low. Victorian rainfall has been very jumpy. EC today not so keen, but given the Synoptics would expect some decent falls.

[Didjman]

Just posted a concurrent thread lol - now deleted

[Gordon]

This will be an interesting thread. GFS has been remarkably consistent on this system for a few days now - which is most unlike GFS of late .

[Gordon]

BOM have just courageously forecast anything from 0 to 20mm for us for this Easter

[StratoBendigo]

Significant downgrade on expected totals this morning.

[QldTwister]

Yep really backed off overnight and today but loving the warm week ahead of it.
The cold nights have been violets im not ready lol noooo freezing lol

Yeah be intresting if we get little if any inland and few mms in south downgrade as we get closer, is this the start of the El Nino/Postive IOD years lol time will tell hope not.

Dry and warm again next week to possible after cold Sunday Mon

[Gordon]

WATL this morning:



Will be interesting to compare with tomorrow morning's run.

[hillybilly]

Progs keeping jiggling the system north then south. Latest runs are further north again, and so wetter.

Let’s see if this sticks.

Definitely not the weekend for camping for much of southeast Australia perhaps ok north of the divide, but not much good elsewhere.

[Gordon]

This morning's WATL to compare with the one above:

[Lucia]

A top of 23 degrees predicted for our neck of the woods today at Lilydale, a high of 18.8 reached, very cool and cloudy all day , currently 18.5 degrees, I am surprised by the the big variation and accuracy of the prediction.

[StratoBendigo]

Still looking good for rain here in Friday. Maybe 15-25mm.

Also early indications of a powerful cold front or series of fronts the weekend after this one.

[hillybilly]

Progs have settled Rain spreading across vic from later today, with widespread rain and showers tomorrow. Nasty cold outbreak on the backside.

TAS weather tends to lag the mainland by about 12 hours initially so rain arrives more on Friday. The low is a bit close to us, so expect a lot of the rain to circulate around us. That said, with a nice infeed from the northeast if one gets under a band it will hoof down.

Big cold outbreak on Saturday into Sunday. Snow locally down to about 500m here, and somewhere around 800m on the mainland. Expect a half decent cover, though it won’t last that long.

Good weekend not to be camping or at the beach

[snowfall]

Yes, looking OK for rain across many areas in Vic, but especially east of Melbourne after the airflow shifts southwesterly.

We'll be rain shadowed for a fair chunk of this system, but should still see a bit to at least give the tanks a small top up.

Currently cloudy and windy here with the temp climbing to 19c. Should see it get a few degrees warmer before progressively cooling down over the next few days. Sunday is looking especially cold.

[QldTwister]

Yeah most will get rain with this one far W and NW mostly miss out but central and east will do well and E of Melb and NE Vic looking good for 30-50mm over the long weekend bad timing for holiday makers but good for those looking for it.

Sun Monday going to be freezing even Saturday is going to be cold not looking forward to it why summer go so fast for

Few thunderstroms around tomorrow as well some might get lucky watch out for those

Enjoy the rain and easter ya all

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Rain prep done !
At this stage in life I’m not starting to clean gutters..

Safe Easter to all travellers!

[dazrain]

All the media is obsessed about just Easter Sunday temps, but what is the coldest average maximum for the four days of Easter Fri-Mon for Melbourne?

That’s the stat that is really significant now for this event as a comparison.

[Gordon]

Flood watch issued by BOM:

Initial Flood Watch for parts of the Melbourne metropolitan area
Issued at 5:36 pm EST on Thursday 6 April 2023

Flood Watch Number: 1

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING

A deepening low pressure system to the southwest of Victoria extends a trough over western Victoria. The low and trough will move slowly east during Friday and Saturday with a cold front to follow later Saturday. This weather system is likely to bring heavy rainfall over the flood watch area.

Catchments within the flood watch area are moderately wet due to recent rainfall.

Showers and severe thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday night into Saturday with widespread 20-40 mm and isolated 70 mm possible over the flood watch area.

Minor to moderate flooding is possible in the flood watch area with forecast rainfall.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Bunyip River and Dandenong Creek
Yarra River to Coldstream

[stevco123]

Let me just put this here now. The chance of a storm in your area tomorrow is very slim and should not be expected.

[Onetahuti]

It's all to do with timing.

Took the partner out to dinner at her daugthers, on return alighting from the taxi to the first spots of rain, by the time I made it out of the home (aged care) it was just starting to set in, so the the 2km walk home was in light but steady rain. Had we been 15 minutes earlier I hardly would have felt the rain.

[hillybilly]

Couple of heavy showers down here this morning but short lived. 3mm so far. All slow moving stuff. Few 50mm plus totals in northern Tas already and one 100mm.

VIC totals slowly building. Looks like a good autumn break for parts of the Wimmera which is a bit of a surprise based on the progs. As the day goes on will get widely convective, and then turn to rain on the wind change.

Btw progs are remarkable in that this morning we have northerly gradients from the Gulf of Carpentaria to northern Tas. On Sunday that reverses with southerlies from almost the Antarctic to the Gulf of Carpentaria. That’s a very high amplitude system. Freezing levels drop by 1500m give or take as the gradient flips over 36 hours.