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Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

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hillybilly
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Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like a wet week ahead with an upper trough coming up from the southwest and a series of lows developing near Bass Strait. Showers and rain to develop from late Sunday, with moderate to heavy falls likely near the coast and ranges. Rain will then spread south to Tasmania with potential heavy falls along the east coast. This system tends to smear rain around so most should do ok though western VIC might miss out a bit.

Potential for a big front to come up late in the week, but wait to see if that sticks.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

Yeah, maybe 10-20mm here for the week ahead. There's certainly been a shift in the weather since last Saturday, and this time next week looks quite chilly.

Our MTD rainfall is just on average at present, and we might end up above average this month.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by Tassiedave »

The models are struggling with this one, rainfall amounts vary significantly from run to run
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by hillybilly »

Tassiedave wrote: Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:21 pm The models are struggling with this one, rainfall amounts vary significantly from run to run
Yep. Pretty frustrating when it’s been dry to see totals jump from 10 to 100 to 10mm.

Hoping for 30mm here, but might have to settle for 10mm. After a good February, March has been a non event here.

Rain slowly spreading south and east today. Wet for Vic and northern Tasmania. Decent falls but down from the flooding rains which were on the models a few days back.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

Light rain here this morning. Up to 4mm already. Might be in the ballpark of 10-15mm this week.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by snowfall »

9.6mm here today. Nice to have a day of rain, something we haven't seen much of in the past few months.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by Gordon »

8mm here, a pass on the back of 14.5mm a few days ago.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by hillybilly »

Took rain a while to get here, but been light and steady since 1am. Closing in on 3mm which isn’t a lot, but three time more than we’ve had in the last two weeks :?

Messy system with a weak low developing southwest today. A stronger second low then develops off the northeast coast of Tasmania tomorrow. That sequence means this is mainly a fish storm with heavy falls over the east Australia current. Light to moderate falls for much of TAS and eastern VIC, with perhaps the odd heavier fall. Nice way to finish a dry month, but for most will still land below average :(

Big system showing up for next week. Guess we will see if it sticks.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

11mm in the past 24 hours, 31mm in the past week. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Can't see a whole lot more this week. Maybe another 5mm?
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by Didjman »

6.2mm for the event so far
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by Gordon »

StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:22 am 11mm in the past 24 hours, 31mm in the past week. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Can't see a whole lot more this week. Maybe another 5mm?
Very nice, autumn break for Bendigo district perhaps?

As for looking ahead, last night Yr No (EC) had Ballarat down for 1.6mm tomorrow, this morning that's up to 7.2mm! Think I'll start spinning a wheel to predict our district's rainfall. :?
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

Gordon wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 11:58 am
StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:22 am 11mm in the past 24 hours, 31mm in the past week. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Can't see a whole lot more this week. Maybe another 5mm?
Very nice, autumn break for Bendigo district perhaps?

As for looking ahead, last night Yr No (EC) had Ballarat down for 1.6mm tomorrow, this morning that's up to 7.2mm! Think I'll start spinning a wheel to predict our district's rainfall. :?
There's been an incredible amount of variation around town though. i.e. 31mm in Kangaroo Flat, 45mm in the SE suburbs, 16mm at Bendigo Airport AWS. Within the space of a 2km it goes from green and lush to still quite dry.

Yeah, roll the dice again for tonight...
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by hillybilly »

Nice rainy one down here with non stop rain for about 18 hours. Started about 1am and still going. Steady warm air advection off the Tasman sea so humid with a cloud base almost at sea level at times and DPs around 14C.

14mm here for the day. Elevated spots which funnel the easterly flow have done best with few local spots around 300 to 500m showing around 30mm so far. All very welcome after a very dry start to autumn.

It’s trying to get convective here atm, so might still get a bit more.

Showers will spread across Vic tonight as the low consolidates east of Tasmania and a solid trough moves up from the south. Rumbles out east.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by hillybilly »

Nice wet night here, with heavier showers around midnight. 27mm in the gauge. Very happy. That’s us just above average for the month :D

That’s our second above average month in a row :D

Showers increasing in Vic atm.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by Gordon »

Nice fall! Not much here since 9am yesterday, although there is rain not far away.

Interesting, if somewhat simplistic article from the ABC today: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-29/ ... /102155924
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by snowfall »

10.4mm this morning. The rain was on and off overnight, starting from around 2am. Just lightly falling at the moment. There will likely be a bit more this morning. Melbourne's east is currently getting some solid rain.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

5mm overnight, 16mm for the event, 56mm MTD. Grass is greening up.

Feels very much like mid-Autumn now.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by Blackee »

StratoBendigo wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:41 am 5mm overnight, 16mm for the event, 56mm MTD. Grass is greening up.

Feels very much like mid-Autumn now.
Melbourne has turned green now after a pretty brown summer. Solid light/mod rain falling bayside since about 9. Another week of very solid falls in the NE after last week's storm deluge.
Rivers must be cranking up now.
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by Didjman »

20.4mm so far for the event here - we caught up lol after a meagre start
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Re: Complex cut off low with rain and storms:March 26-31

Post by stevco123 »

So are we calling it an autumn break yet?
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