Becoming cooler with showers and storms, possible snow on alps: March 5-10

[QldTwister]

Yeah dont worry SB that heat wont happen, cause i want it to happen lol, but next summer will be a different story lots of heat next summer

Great weekend sunny warm both days beach BBQs evening drinks outside was very nice

11mm over night wettest so far this year i think

Wintery mid week boo, but looking like nice long weekend and hopefully some heat early mid next week

[Gordon]

A windy 14C here after 1mm of rain in the wee hours.

Btw, is anyone else finding the models unusually jumpy/ inaccurate? The unexpectedly high totals to 9am yesterday are one example, but looking ahead, there seems to be massive disagreement/ variation. EC now has us down for 20mm on Sunday, and just 14C - and that's from warm and dry just a couple of days ago.

[StratoBendigo]

I think the models are struggling with what's about to happen with the MJO in the next week or so.

Looks like a big Westerly Wind Burst to kick off El-Nino 2023...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[hillybilly]

Wild, wet and windy in Tasmania, and now snow to about 700m overnight. Heavy falls today about the west, particularly areas like the Huon valley where falls local topped 30mm.

Back home 8mm. Down to 9C atm and falling still. Apparently a substantial storm surge, but quite low tides atm, so not expecting issues. We’ve had a cracker of an autumn break now with 50mm last week and 20mm this week. With a bit of sun going to be a bumper grass growing season. Not quite enough yet for runoff, but lots of dark winter days for that

Front looks like it will largely run along the VIC coast so decent falls around the Otways etc. but not much once you head inland.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

2.7mm overnight,
Also Monday night had a top up after sundays 20 odd mm.
Dry crunchy gum leaves now not so crunchy, wet appreciated.

[hillybilly]

Nice wintery 6C overnight. Another 5mm of rain.

Snow levels dipped briefly to just below 600m. Nice cover on the top of Kunanyi but won’t last long when the sun comes up.

Impressive falls out west. Warra which is just shy of 50mm has beaten it’s March record. 20 years of data so not a long record but still notable.

[snowfall]

2.4mm here overnight. It was brief but heavy when it arrived. Could still do with a fair bit more, but every bit helps!

It's feeling like autumn now. The mornings are noticeably cooler and the sun is getting that bit weaker. The first autumn colours are also starting to appear.

[Gordon]

Nice Tassie snow. Bang on 4mm here, so a useful add to the rain a couple of days ago.

Sure does feel like autumn, although I see the threat of some heat in a week or so is back on some models . Forecasting is impossible atm!

[Lucia]

A very welcome 7mls here, didn't look like we would get that so happy.

[Pengaz]

A handy 8.5mm in follow up rain overnight, taking us to over an inch for the week and hopefully snuffing the last of the fire risk this season for this part of the world.

Quite cold out there today. Blustery northerly winds over the past two days were enough to blow over some of my fruit trees that had grown too top heavy over the summer.

[StratoBendigo]

Cool and dry here again today. About 20c.

Some extraordinary rains through NW Qld this week:

This summer has been extremely wet across most of Northern Australia, but quite dry across the Southern half. Quite different to the Summer 2021/22, to be honest.

[hillybilly]

Breezy couple of days here with the odd spotty shower. 1mm more in the gauge. Just shy of 25mm for the event here couple of shorter run stations out west actually saw their wettest March day on record

Struggling to see the nest event for most of us. Going to be gusty westerlies from mid next week, but showers pretty much stuck to western Tasmania. Could we some heat in about ten days.

[hillybilly]

Nice weather rolls on. Still not seeing much. Odd shower tomorrow for tas and perhaps coastal vic. Might see a good spell of westerlies mid to late next week, but not yet sticking in the models. Big dome of heat back in WA where Perth has only seen 1.6mm since the start of 2023.

[Didjman]

Nice weather rolls on.

Not at night though for astrophotography!

[hillybilly]

Little wandering upper low giving some surprise showers and storms to north central atm. This one crossed the coast last night near Mt Gambier with a couple of moderate falls. Will form a low off Sydney in a day or so.

Cold and blustery down here in Tas. Was quite heavy falls down around the tips that poke into the southern ocean but not much elsewhere. Showery 13C down here at Howden atm, but just 0.2mm in the gauge.

[StratoBendigo]

Some small storm cells have popped up. Very slow moving and not much in them at this stage.

Looks like a battle between inland heat dome and cooler maritime air across much of Southern Australia in the next week or so. Forecast models are struggling...

[Gordon]

Forecast models are struggling...

Are they ever! If you don't like what a model is offering, just wait a run

A few brief showers here today; haven't checked the gauge but would be a mm at best.