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Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2023 7:17 am
by hillybilly
Pretty active system coming up with a series of fronts and a deep low for the week ahead. Widespread falls, though mostly light to moderate away from the usual wet spots.

With very warm SSTs and cold air aloft would not surprise to see some strong coldies. Snow likely on the alps, which could be quite heavy but with warm sun and ground won’t stick for long.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:11 am
by StratoBendigo
Looks mostly dry here. But I don't mind the cooler weather this time of year. I would much rather this than high-30s+.

The coastal fringe is likely to get a bit with the warm ocean and bay.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:08 am
by hillybilly
Guess the first day of this event which slowly ramps with each passing trough. Today, the odd shower and storm over eastern Victoria, bit of drizzle in western Tasmania and possible shower in the east. Tomorrows trough is a long strong with a solid band of showers.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:17 am
by StratoBendigo
Forecast is still holding firm for cold outbreak later this week.

Worth noting that next week has significant divergence in the model outputs. All over the shop - everything from 0 to 50mm forecast for here.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 6:50 am
by hillybilly
1mm in the gauge here from yesterday’s front. Quite a few showers but all pretty light. Heavier falls out west.

Strong front for today. Heavy falls in northern and western Tasmania and for the southern into mountain areas of Victoria. Wouldn’t be surprised fo see the odd fall over 50mm. This would be a good front for August, with uppers cold enough for snow on the mainland peaks for a good 48 hours. The air over Tasmania is not cold for as long with some warm air advection form the east as a second low bombs on Saturday. Wouldn’t be surprised to see locally around a foot of snow, but won’t stick for long with warm sun and ground temps.

Btw watch for a substantial storm surge. Fortunately tides aren’t very high this week but the pressure drops down toward 990hPa over coastal Vic and sub 1980s in tasmania.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:32 am
by StratoBendigo
Decent polar jet for February. We might get a few mm this evening.

The monster low and cold outbreak of Feb 2005 still
likely to be the champion of Feb cold weather events for me though.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:01 am
by stevco123
StratoBendigo wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:32 am Decent polar jet for February. We might get a few mm this evening.

The monster low and cold outbreak of Feb 2005 still
likely to be the champion of Feb cold weather events for me though.
Yep same. Will never forget it. A max of just under 12 that day for south east suburbs.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:44 am
by Blackee
StratoBendigo wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:32 am Decent polar jet for February. We might get a few mm this evening.

The monster low and cold outbreak of Feb 2005 still
likely to be the champion of Feb cold weather events for me though.
And 120mm in a day in Melb. Was like a cyclone.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 1:04 pm
by Australis(Shell3155)
ooo... that's hurting the memory..

Just checked the National Radar.. :o

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:32 pm
by Blackee
Front has arrived with a bang bayside. Moderate - heavy rain with the wind change.

How's the satpic!

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:57 pm
by dazrain
Are we looking at the coldest first week of Feb ever in Melbourne?

Average temp will be about 22 degrees!

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 6:37 pm
by StratoBendigo
dazrain wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:57 pm Are we looking at the coldest first week of Feb ever in Melbourne?

Average temp will be about 22 degrees!
Not sure about first week of Feb, but the second week of Feb 1996 is a standout for cold Feb weather too.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:07 pm
by snowfall
Good solid rain band and better than expected. 18.4mm here.

It's a blue sky now, though some showers are inbound. It's definitely on the chilly side for summer. The temp dropped to 8.2c with the rain band and is currently 10c.

A nice break from an otherwise dry summer.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:20 pm
by StratoBendigo
4mm here. Now clear skies and a chilly 11c outside. Feels like late-Autumn!

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:31 pm
by stevco123
THUNDER!!!!

Unbelievable to get such a coldie in summer.

EDIT>> Second coldie just went through with heavy rain and small hail.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:45 am
by hillybilly
Photo from last night of Baw Baw snow. Decent cover across the Snowys also, but a bit of a miss for the more northern VIC alps and Tasmania which often happens with these very cold systems. Nice and chilly down here near sea level in southern Tas with a minimum of 5.9C. Looking at obs probably a light frost on parts of the Huon and Derwent valleys.

Gonna be a messy day today with two lows dumbelling around each other then consolidating near southwest cape. Showers and storms, but main focus will be through south Gippsland/Otways and western Tas. More snow in the alps. Coastal surge will push water to “minor/nuisance” flood levels in the usual suspects (Lakes Entrance, Tarwin, possibly parts of TAS). Have always found the best coldies happen in the February to early April window, but systems this time of year seem to only come every 5-10 years. Reckon it would be worth a look on the Bass Coast as this is classic water spout weather for that region. These often come ashore as weak landspouts.

Image

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:52 am
by Didjman
Today I am planning a Coldie and large surf chase to Pt Lonsdale. Should get some awesome pics and vid of the 2-3m forecast surf breaking against the outgoing tide from the bay. Maybe a waterspout too?

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:21 am
by Macedonian
Very wintry at Mt Macedon this morning.
Just 4.8° and dropping.
My max yesterday was only 11.3°.
My yr app says 12° for me today but I think they are dreaming.

I remember Feb 2005 very well. A huge amount of rain back in the drought years where we were lucky to ever get anything over 10mm in one go in Melbourne.

It was like getting day release on a life sentence.

Lots of trees came down in city centre parks because they had been weakened by the drought. Devestation.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:50 am
by Pengaz
17mm here from yesterdays rain band and a couple of showers overnight.

Interested to see how it sets up today. If we get in the right slot we might double our rain total by this time tomorrow.

Re: Becoming cooler with showers and storms, snow on the alps: Feb 1-5

Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:34 pm
by Macedonian
6.5° at 12 40pm in Feb!