The Australian Weather Forum

Quite a long live easterly trough set up with cool air aloft and persistent northeast to southeast flow. System will favour eastern parts of both Vic and TAS, with convection focussed over high ground.

There’s a big range in rainfall outcomes as the Synoptics are quite subtle, and will be dominated by weak upslide and convection.

Expecting a pretty good chance for moderate to heavy falls in southern and eastern Tas. VIC pretty messy, but usually these setups favour Gippsland and the eastern ranges, and possibly west central.

I find these setups are the most annoying ones. Hard to forecast rain.
Usually includes strong winds and high humidity.
Hate it

Still lots of variation between models on rainfall in Vic. That's not surprising given that it's largely a convective setup where showers/storms will be very much hit and miss over the next few days.

We ended up with fog and drizzle, heavy at times, all day on Wednesday. A total of 19.4mm all up - very welcome but some more would be handy.

A mixture of sun and cloud here today and currently a humid 21.5c.

Always a bonus when the chance of rain is 20%, and a little storm forms overhead and stays there. Only 4.5mm, but a nice freshen up after 6.5mm midweek.

I'm currently at the Kerang lakes. Decent storm went through and it's become more intense and lightning active since moving East of the Murray River. 11mm in Kerang.

Nice big storms up around Mildura area hail observed pea to marble and some heavy rain

Down south just mild to warm SEly winds and storms to our orth might get bit closer on Tuesday maybe monday then very strong front possible late Saturday

Aus day looking cool this year after awesome hot stormy one last year

stevco123 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:13 pm I find these setups are the most annoying ones. Hard to forecast rain.
Usually includes strong winds and high humidity.
Hate it

Yep. Every days a chance, but most days a miss

Big day in southern Tasmania yesterday but so hit and miss we scored about four different convective showers, but just 3mm in the gauge. Up the road the little village of Fern Tree had a shower park itself on top of them for about three hours and they got 60mm

Same time some spots just a few kms to the north got zilch.

Today looks like a repeat, but the steering is a more out of the north. VIC, steering is still towards the west of southwest and quite light so showers will struggle to push into central. More of a north central and northern slopes event today.

Quite an unstable sky here this morning - plenty of AC Castellanus

Another day, another storm here near Kerang. A bit of small hail in the mix too, and very lightning active. Seems to be backbuilding.

Some cracking storms for both VIC and Tas but slow moving and pulsey. Lots of reports of hail in the pea to marble range. Have friends camping at Mt Buffalo and ground was white with hail. Some big totals around, with plenty of falls in the 10-20mm range, but spot falls near 50mm. That storm currently near Kinglake looks to be a doozie with 25mm and still falling in minutes.

Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today but warmer and more widespread showers and storms. Coastal areas will continue to struggle.

Saw some pretty bubbly looking cumulus here in Ringwood around sunset. Wouldn’t shock me if some storms made it to the metro area tomorrow.

26mm here in Kangaroo Flat yesterday.

Runnymede near Rochester wins with 83mm! Massive hailstorm there as well.

Great fall, and that's a crazy total from Runnymede.

We missed out, but hoping for a top-up today (small chance) and tomorrow (reasonable chance).

Into the weekend, dramatic variation in models for us - again! Everything from a few mm to 50mm plus.

So many days of warmth and humidity but all the storms to the east, last night one ventured closer and made for a nice view on sunset, only saw one bolt of lightning.

So close yet so far

Watching this massive storm
in gippy from a distance.

Bit like groundhog day for the past 3 days. Each day, there has been a fair amount of convection around us, then the afternoon southerly kicks in and pushes any development away. Just scraped a developing storm about an hour ago with a few claps of thunder and about ten drops of rain! Back to sunny now, although a small cell has developed to my south and heading east. Fingers crossed something gets going properly tomorrow...

Plenty of activity currently about the northeast and northwest of Vic.

I think rather than a chance of a thunderstorm the forecast should be "no chance of a thunderstorm".

the amount of "chances" there has been for weeks, you think one would eventually deliver..well something.

hot..dry and humid...so its out to water the garden again!

Absolutely torrential atm in Huonville Tasmania
Good old fashioned thunderstorms
Love it

Derwent wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:15 pm Absolutely torrential atm in Huonville Tasmania
Good old fashioned thunderstorms
Love it

Watched it unfold from Howden. Got a couple of shots I’ll upload later.

Lots and lots of rumbles here, but all slide down in the wrong side of the ranges

Another day tomorrow with activity looking more widespread. Getting very dry here now.

Bit of a quieter day around vic, though again isolated large falls. That cell in south Gippsland dropped around 30mm just inland from in Inverloch.

Shot of the storm west of Hobart yesterday. Stunning structure. Spot falls of over 50mm under it. 0mm here

Another day another chance. Storms not as widespread today for vic and tas but will tend to push off the ranges so probably a better chance for those of us living on the plains.