Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January

[stevco123]

Lightning laat night at 2am.

Also just had a 2 minute downpour here and one simultaneous huge crack of thunder and lightning.

Officially counts a storm day to me

[weathergasm]

Most recent Melbourne sounding (and I am looking at the right one this time!) has Lifted Index of -6.4 and Total Totals of 56. If you get a storm today it’ll likely be a doozy.

[Didjman]

Most recent Melbourne sounding (and I am looking at the right one this time!) has Lifted Index of -6.4 and Total Totals of 56. If you get a storm today it’ll likely be a doozy.

I don't remember my calculus, but the area (CAPE) between the black curved line and the dry adiabatic lapse rate line is huge!!

[James]

Storms seem to have split in two and went either side of me so far today, did catch a very chunky CG launch itself into the clear air towards the other side of the mountains well ahead of the storm, whilst it was sunny and hot here....scary!

I am assuming things are waiting more until peak heating and the change to fire up further, everything else so far is quite fast moving.

did have some heavy rain in the early hours last night

[weathergasm]

Going by doppler it appears the trough is traversing the bay and is at Laverton’s doorstep. A little bit too early for my liking, would prefer it to be about 50km west.

[StratoBendigo]

7mm in this morning's storm. Rainfall account for 2023 opened.

Blue skies, 27c, humid, and an easterly breeze atm

[stevco123]

Currently at Frankston beach. A sea breeze seems to have moved in, and at the same time I'm looking at the radar and development has stoppes. I hope it's not one of those stupid days where the seabreeze kills chances of storms. It's been 20 years since Melbourne has had regular summer storms

(Ignore the Frankston Ballam Park weather station. It's too far inland from Frankston to be calling it as such. The bom station has Frankston at 31 degrees, but my kestrel on the beach is showing 24)

[weathergasm]

Currently at Frankston beach. A sea breeze seems to have moved in, and at the same time I'm looking at the radar and development has stoppes. I hope it's not one of those stupid days where the seabreeze kills chances of storms. It's been 20 years since Melbourne has had regular summer storms

I could be wrong, but I doubt that’s a sea breeze. Fairly sure it’s the trough itself. At this stage it looks like it’ll come “too soon” to trigger storms for many south metro areas.

[stevco123]

I could also be wrong but i thought it was still well down towards the Otways.

There's A LOT of development I can see visually to my west-south-west

[Didjman]

Earth.Nullschool.net at 1200:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 35.70,2613

[stevco123]

Earth.Nullschool.net at 1200:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 35.70,2613

In that case, i call another storm fail for the Melbourne metro area, if this is really the trough

[James]

bom specifically says :

A thunderstorm likely, possibly severe with damaging winds and large hail in the afternoon and evening. Possible heavy falls in the afternoon and evening.

so if that was it, its a massive fail on their part, does seem like that was it unless there is something they know/see that we don't?

[stevco123]

bom specifically says :

A thunderstorm likely, possibly severe with damaging winds and large hail in the afternoon and evening. Possible heavy falls in the afternoon and evening.

so if that was it, its a massive fail on their part, does seem like that was it unless there is something they know/see that we don't?

But then their state forecast takea a bet each way:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over western and central districts slowly contracting east during the day. Thunderstorms may be severe with the risk of locally heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail. Isolated light showers to follow across the south later. Hot with moderate to locally fresh northerly winds ahead of a cooler south to southwesterly change along the southwest coast reaching western Victoria this afternoon and central districts during the early evening.

[James]

As i say, never take any notice of the forecasts - a forecast like that yet, for severe storms but was there any severe storm warnings with any of that lot this morning (which i heard had hail in it).

A friend refused to visit today and cancelled plans because of the severe weather forecast this afternoon...ughh!

[Skywalker]

As i say, never take any notice of the forecasts

Yep, exactly. It's much better to make our own predictions & analysis here on this fabulous forum than read any of the nonsense released by the BOM. It's exhausting the amount of times those incompetent fools have stuffed up the forecast.

Magnificent short light show at 1am this morning down here on the island, even though that wasn't forecast overnight either. Saw another cell just before midday over western port too.

[Didjman]

To be honest, I am disappointed so far also. But looking at it logically, there is heat / moisture / instability yes? This mornings sounding showed we had all those in spades. What is missing?? Has to be lack of forcing. IE: the trough is weaker than first forecast / has weakened. How do you forecast that? The atmosphere is fluid and always changing. My 2 cents worth.

[Didjman]

Looks like things are firing in a line from Ballarat to north of Stawell. The Clunes cell looks impressive on the Maryborough airport webcam:

https://www.myairportcams.com

[Gordon]

Going to be line ball for us...

Out of interest, does anyone know what happened to the Thunderstorm Forecast maps Vic BOM used to publish on their Twitter page? Haven't seen one for ages. (Not to be confused with their STWs.)

[Didjman]

Going to be line ball for us...

Out of interest, does anyone know what happened to the Thunderstorm Forecast maps Vic BOM used to publish on their Twitter page? Haven't seen one for ages. (Not to be confused with their STWs.)

It's on their CFA Reg User page

[Didjman]

That Clunes cell is looking pretty good on Kilmore Gap webcam!




First STW is out for that cell:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21033.shtml