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Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by tonycynic »

Raindrops at Mount Evelyn. Got 12mm overnight.
Last edited by tonycynic on Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Didjman »

On the 2300Z sounding at Tulla, there were very small caps at 5000 / 10000ft. Once broken, storms will top out at around 33000ft. LI -4.4C, PW 29.6mm, TT 52. Heaps of Cape also (forgotten my calculus so can't remember how to calculate it :) ).
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Wind picked up and the big black monster snuck around behind us.. (relieved)
not the norm, the usually slip past in front.. odd positioning again..
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by weathergasm »

Going by the water vapor image, all of Melbourne to just west of Geelong is on the wet side of something of a dry line, which is a good thing if you want storms.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Blackee »

About 20mm here in Mansfield overnight. Heavy at times. Upper NE had significant falls of 50-60 mm widespread.

The atmosphere is heavy. Dew point 17c. Storms are exploding central/southern NSW and now getting going north of us south of the border.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Petros »

Rain arrived here 9.30pm last night, persisted on and off till 7am adding another 13mm to our sodden lawns, just on 50mm for this thread so far.

Has been calm, muggy bright and sunny here for 4 hours now, we are the only clear skys over the eastern 2/3's of Vic atm. Things are going to explode here mid arvo.

Lake Glenmaggie (92%) has started releasing yet again, river heights rising up in the Macalister catchment. I will be very surprised if we dont get near moderate flooding on the Macalister and Thompson Rivers on the Gippsland flats by mid week.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by StratoBendigo »

Bendigo AWS has gone berserk. Totally wrong rainfall readings atm.

Overcast at present which is limiting convection.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Skywalker »

Another egg on face performance by the useless Bureau of Meteorology. :roll:

You need to be pretty certain about things before putting a Very high (near 100%) chance of showers developing during the late morning and afternoon into your "all eggs in one basket approach" Melbourne forecast.

Had about 3mm here on the island overnight. Warm & slightly humid here at present with not a drop in sight.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by stevco123 »

Still not convinced something will happen. First sign was the rainband that developed too far east last night from where it was forecast, which suggested the whole system had moved east.

Second sign was the cloud moving in earlier and storms firing up to the east of Melbourne.

Final sign is the current development that is now a couple hundred kilometres fro. Melbourne.

Prove me wrong, go on... 😁
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Dane »

Not much happening here. Had 6mm's overnight but so far mild and mostly cloudy.
Radar not showing anything around here either.
For some reasom The BOM hasnt updated Ballarat's forecast since 9pm last night.
Oh well if it stays mostly dry cricket fans will be Happy tonight
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Sean »

EC is still keep on storms pushing through central.

Expect them to develop from nowhere.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Wilko »

Sean wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:09 pm EC is still keep on storms pushing through central.

Expect them to develop from nowhere.
Yep about to start :o
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by StratoBendigo »

METAR has a 30% probability of storms here this afternoon and evening. But 45kts gusts if we get under one...
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Didjman »

Stuff going up near Colac - fast moving in usual direction. Satloop as a large break in the cloud racing toward Melbourne (near Horsham). Might be all we need.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by snowfall »

About 17mm here for the dates, most of which fell last night. It has been cloudy here all day and at times looked like it was about to pour, but nothing on the radar. A couple of small showers have popped up to our northwest, so maybe a bit more activity will appear soon. There’s quite a few cells around the Otways. Otherwise, the main activity is still in northern Vic.

A very humid 21c here currently.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Gordon »

Skywalker wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:31 pm
You need to be pretty certain about things before putting a Very high (near 100%) chance of showers developing during the late morning and afternoon into your "all eggs in one basket approach" Melbourne forecast.
At least you've got a forecast. As I first mentioned many posts ago, all the detailed BOM regional towns forecasts are still stuck on 9pm last night :?. 18 hours old and counting.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by tonycynic »

Looks like some of the regional forecasts updated at 7.39 this morning. Might be more of a computer glitch than a BOM one.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Gordon »

tonycynic wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:49 pm Looks like some of the regional forecasts updated at 7.39 this morning. Might be more of a computer glitch than a BOM one.
No, you're talking about the brief forecasts. The detailed forecasts are still stuck; e.g.
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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by Gordon »

Brief forecasts - which were updated - are next to useless for detail, like this:

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Re: Warm week with troughs, showers, storms Nov 7 - 13th

Post by StratoBendigo »

It's turning out to be a real fizzer here today. Thankfully.
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