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Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

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Pengaz
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Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Pengaz »

Chatter already building for a follow up low to potentially deliver significant rain in its own right in the coming week.

Some of the progs in EC’s model run yesterday evening are eye watering for the flood affected areas:
Image

WATL also onboard:
Image

Dates are indicative, hopefully the models ratchet down the rain progs over the next few days 😬
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Adam38 »

Those models look scary 😧
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by StratoBendigo »

Latest EC has backed off a bit which is encouraging.

I've heard one farmer North of here had $2million of canola destroyed by floodwaters last week. It's catastrophic.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by StratoBendigo »

00z EC forecast made me swear under my breathe. Awful.

Some other forecasts aren't as bad.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Wilko »

Woken up to a quick downpour this morning
5mm in the gauge...no more rain please..we live on the bottom of a hill and every time it rains over 20mm we get a flood from our neighbours not looking after their gutters
Hopefully the local Plummer can fix
Nothing compared to what is happening with our rural cousins though
Yep EC and Gfs look downright nasty
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by StratoBendigo »

Thursday to Saturday doesn't look too bad now. But Sunday-Monday looks very wet.
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Petros
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Petros »

Oh oh, ....the chances of Gippsland dodging a 5th bullet look slim for this one. The dreaded easterly dip.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Onetahuti »

The new forecasts issued this afternoon certainly do not look good for areas already badly affected by flooding missing out on more substantial rainfall in the coming week. :P :(
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by StratoBendigo »

Latest prediction regarding river height at Echuca wharf is 95.9m. In 1870 it was 96.2m.

It could get worse if the coming rain is excessive.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by hillybilly »

Sitting waiting for the progs to settle. Currently looks substantial, with all models throwing out locally big numbers. Looks a lot wetter for eastern Tasmania which is interesting (GFS and EC both showing 100-150mm here).

Synoptics look straight forward so not expecting a major shift. First low coming out of WA with lots of showers and storms Thursday to Saturday. This then slips southeast as the upper trough builds back west with a big cutoff tracking southeast. Heavy falls to the east and south of the low. This will exacerbate flooding, and possibly add significantly to it. Pretty stressful time for those near rivers.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by StratoBendigo »

I honestly hope that GFS is overcooking it. 18z output has 161mm centered on an area between Rochester and Shepparton.

If it clears out quickly to the east and puts us in a rain-shadow we might be OK (CMA indicates this).
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Gordon »

I know this sounds glib, but the way the more reputable models are chopping and changing for my area (the only one I'm following in great detail) makes me think the details are too volatile to predict exactly what will happen.

Large parts of Victoria are in the firing line for a lot more rain soon BUT when it falls (every day without rain is another day to allow flooding to subside) and where, remains unclear to say the least.

Hoping for the best, but planning for the worst :? .
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Tassiedave »

Models chopping and changing a bit with this one. Finding it hard to pin down which area from Cape York to Tassie is going to get substantial rain.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Macedonian »

First max of higher than 15° for me since the middle of may. 15.3° this arvo.
Spring is here at last.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by hillybilly »

Progs are getting jumpy. EC has about 200mm here. GFS about 30mm. Other models spread about equally in between.

Hoping something settles soon.

Warm couple of days coming up.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by StratoBendigo »

Yeah, the forecast models are throwing out all sorts of totals. GEM is horrific. Others not terrible, but not particularly great either. The BoM (or whatever it is now) has quite manageable totals at this stage.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Dane »

Ballarat Airport reached 19.9c today so it still has not officially reached 20c in Spring yet.
Last day it reached 20 was 26th of April.
21 is forecast for tomorrow so we should get it then.
Bit of a downgrade to the forecast Rain over the coming days.
Very tricky to forecast this coming system.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by StratoBendigo »

It's not looking good. Widespread 50-120mm likely across most of Vic, with NE Vic looking particularly bad.

Expect significant food and potentially power shortages in coming weeks and months.
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Tassiedave »

Things still not looking good for Tassie Sunday pm to Wednesday am
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Re: Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

Post by Wilko »

StratoBendigo wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:20 am It's not looking good. Widespread 50-120mm likely across most of Vic, with NE Vic looking particularly bad.

Expect significant food and potentially power shortages in coming weeks and months.
Yes no looking good at all for large swaths of NSW and VIC
Nat disaster will be declared
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