Just shy of 20mm down here in southeast Tasmania. Looks like a very wet week… could well see over 100mm here. If EC verifies it will be our wettest October on record. Guess we will see We have no flood risk here so no issues with excessive rain, though parts of southeast TAS do have flash flood risk.
Next system is taking shape over eastern south Australia and will eventually be a significant low near Flinders Island by mid week. Showers and storms will wrap around the top, with rain areas wrapping in from the Tasman Sea on the south and eastern parts. The whole event is moving a touch south, so looking more like an eastern VIC and eastern Tas event, though everywhere will see solid falls.
Anyone know why BoM forecasting is so different to Weatherzone. It just seems like Weatherzone local forecasts has nailed every event for the past 12 months.
For tomorrow for example, it's been saying 1 to 10mm for the past 3 days. BoM was adamant on 30mm until the most recent forecast from 4.30pm today where 1 to 8mm is forecast now.
Also, they have a 75% chance of no rain tomorrow on their app, a d 50% chance of at least 1mm.
I seriously believe BoM may need to have a rethink on how things are run in the organisation. It used to be so good until it became an official government department a few years ago.
Yesterday we had a couple of heavy showers passing through with the change midday - disrupting the Maffra Show, but it cleared for the later part of the day and evening fireworks.
That all tallied to 9.75mm to last evening.
A cool easterly day today, then the easterly winds freshened and went cold late arvo, now have thick easterly drizzle with a persistent cold easterly wind, 2.5mm so far, 12.25mm for this event so far, heaters on again here tonight. Another bullet might be dodged so far rainwise so far, but easterly rain here with a baro of 1015 hPa, and a full Lake Glenmaggie makes the cow cockies nervous.
Petros wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 6:52 pm
Yesterday we had a couple of heavy showers passing through with the change midday - disrupting the Maffra Show, but it cleared for the later part of the day and evening fireworks.
That all tallied to 9.75mm to last evening.
A cool easterly day today, then the easterly winds freshened and went cold late arvo, now have thick easterly drizzle with a persistent cold easterly wind, 2.5mm so far, 12.25mm for this event, heaters on again here tonight. Another bullet might be dodged rainwise again, but easterly rain here with a baro of 1015 hPa, and a full Lake Glenmaggie makes the cow cockies nervous.
We’ve missed out on all the action here for this thread. Just 4.5mm yesterday from the band of showers yesterday morning.
Stiff easterly wind here most of the day with a couple of misty spells (not enough to wet the ground). Wind has really picked up this evening now up to 35kts.
Not sure what to expect here for the coming week. These systems are notoriously fickle for our area and we often get stuck in a dead zone with strong rain shadows to our north and east.
stevco123 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 4:40 pm
Anyone know why BoM forecasting is so different to Weatherzone. It just seems like Weatherzone local forecasts has nailed every event for the past 12 months.
For tomorrow for example, it's been saying 1 to 10mm for the past 3 days. BoM was adamant on 30mm until the most recent forecast from 4.30pm today where 1 to 8mm is forecast now.
Also, they have a 75% chance of no rain tomorrow on their app, a d 50% chance of at least 1mm.
I seriously believe BoM may need to have a rethink on how things are run in the organisation. It used to be so good until it became an official government department a few years ago.
You have given me something to keep an eye on, I will watch with interest Weatherzones forecasting. Thanks
Echuca about to be hit by a line of storms
That is the last thing they need
By the way the wind is ferocious this side of the Bay....geez I hate the easterlies
That’s an impressive total Gordon.
Not looking forward to another week of wet and grey tbh. This week with the added joy of southwesterlies.
The calmness of the last few days has been pretty pleasant.
Tassiedave wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 11:31 am
Off topic but there is an impressive sub tropical LOW off South East Queensland at the moment.
That’s the low that gives eastern VIC and eastern Tasmania heavy rain later in the week. The current low near Coffs and the other near Mildura slowly drift south and interact, with the eastern low edging west.
Been a cold couple of days down here with a bit of snow on the mountain. Easterlies have now kick in so expecting showers to pick up today, and warmer air.
VIC is messy stuck between two lows so action mainly in the west and east and a bit of a hole in the middle. All very dynamic. The heavy falls overnight in the Mallee and Wimmera must be causing issues with the crops??
7mm overnight, which brings the event total (since Friday) to 19mm here. Even though it's not a huge amount, the ground has turned slushy again, given how saturated it is.
Incredible total there SB and another case of a record being beaten by a considerable margin. Unfortunately, looks like a fair bit more rain up there again today.
We have no flood risk here so no issues with excessive rain, though parts of southeast TAS do have flash flood risk.
