Big rain event 12-14 October

[Gordon]

Looks like there's no avoiding heavy rain for much of Vic and Tas out of this coming system.

Fingers crossed for a late change in the models, but it doesn't look hopeful - broad agreement for a few days now.

[tonycynic]

Yep, new forecast out from BOM showing up to 80mm for the 3 days here. Not sure where we are going to put it.

[Wilko]

Yes majority of models predicting a deluge…
Better get the Ark ready

[Australis(Shell3155)]

1 x 90% 20 - 40
1 x 80% 20 - 40
Glad for the 100mm down pipes.. with a flat roof..

Plz be spread out over the day…

[StratoBendigo]

Looking at the forecast, some of the flood prone towns in Northern Vic will be nervous.

[stevco123]

There was always going to be an event that tips us over the edge and into a flood emerg this season. This one could be it. The water has nowhere to go now....

[stevco123]

10th of October, and we have quite a frost this morning.

[Redskyatnite]

27mm here @ Cranny North

[StratoBendigo]

50-80mm seems to be the range of expectations here this week.

[Wilko]

50-80 here too
All models in alignment this far out...

[StratoBendigo]

50-80 here too
All models in alignment this far out...

18z GFS goes for a nightmare 115mm, but I take that with a grain of salt given its propensity to overcook the totals.

[tonycynic]

Latest from bom has moved us from 30-50mm up to 45-70mm for Thursday. Might give the gutters a quick clean out tomorrow. And inflate the dinghy.

[StratoBendigo]

BOM now going for 70-100mm. That's starting to get into January 2011 territory.

I notice on the Satpic a huge plume of tropical moisture streaming in from TC Balita in the Central Indian Ocean. No wonder the big totals being forecast...

[Wilko]

This could be quite serious if it comes off as projected
Melbourne just isn’t built for handling this much water in 24hrs
thoughts go to rural /country areas
Time to check my Flood Insurance

[Tassiedave]

Thursday Tas rain forecasts include: Sheffield 100-120mm, Deloraine 100-150mm, St Marys 60-90mm, Burnie 60-80mm, Launceston 60-80mm. Launceston October record just 42mm and all time record 88mm. Could be historic.

[Petros]

1 x 90% 20 - 40
1 x 80% 20 - 40
Glad for the 100mm down pipes.. with a flat roof..

Same predicament here too Shell. But they are great for light rainy nights!

Latest available to me here is 25mm/47.7mm by Sunday CMC/EC. If the farmers are able to get out on their paddocks, this November will be a record hay making season.

Sileage is being cut around here for the past 10 days.

[Didjman]

I have an old back issue. When really severe wx is imminent my lwr back flares in pain ("Baro Back"). It is caning right now!

[stevco123]

I'm still in "wait and see" mode. Forecasting 70mm for Melbourne this far out isn't reliable just yet... maybe for Sydney or Brisbane, but not Melbourne, even in a La Nina year

[93ben]

The forecast is a bit worrying for Thursday with already quite full dams and river levels at a high around Victoria.

[hillybilly]

Watching how this wiggle in the progs. Looks to be fairly settled with a sharpening upper trough stalling as it approaches the southeast with a surface trough. On Friday morning the jet goes north-south at over 140 knots so about 250km/hr. That’s phenomenal. With record or near record precipitable water values for October rainfall will be heavy on north facing slopes in particular. Not much in the way of storms, just saturated atmosphere with lots of rain.

North central to northeast Victoria and northern Tasmania look the main focus. Could well be very strong rainshadows on parts of southern Tasmania and south and east Tasmania. Tiny shifts will make a big difference. Expecting around 40mm here which will be welcome, but nothing to exciting.

Northern Tasmania looks the most serious to me atm. Totals are not that different from what was saw in June 2016. It’s been a dry year in the region so rain will be welcome to a point but not this much