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Inland Trough and Associated Pineapple Express: Oct 4-8

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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stevco123
Supercell
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Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:51 am

A surprisingly very windy night here. Looking at obs, it seems like it's a southern area thing. Fairly calm winds in the northern suburbs, but very blustery in the south with gusts around 50km/h.

I didn't expect that
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dazrain
Cumulus
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Posts: 97
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:39 pm
Location: Brighton East, Victoria

Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:12 am

Melbourne always gets rain shadowed from the North.

Will this rain this arvo actually eventuate ?
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Posts: 2569
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:48 am

3mm so far. Looks a lot less than the forecasts from yesterday.
stevco123
Supercell
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Posts: 2798
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:51 am

Massive fail from BoM today regarding wind. It's a howling out there with branches down in some places locally.

Observations show the southern part of the state is being buffeted with gusts of 50-70km/h.

Should be a strong wind warning, yet nothing.
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Petros
Supercell
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Posts: 1927
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:16 am

Latest WV image shows Vic now under the moist air:

Image

Plenty of rain falling in NW Vic. Cold overcast under a low stratus sky here with a persistent moderate easterly wind. Had a couple of brief easterly showers last night to kick off the event.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Posts: 2569
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:41 am

Moderate rain here now. 6mm so far.

Walpeup the standout with 37mm and still raining.
snowfall
Supercell
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Posts: 1106
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:08 am

stevco123 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:51 am Massive fail from BoM today regarding wind. It's a howling out there with branches down in some places locally.

Observations show the southern part of the state is being buffeted with gusts of 50-70km/h.

Should be a strong wind warning, yet nothing.
This occasionally happens for us as well, where no wind warnings are posted despite a damaging northerly wind.

Hope the wind settles soon. There's barely a breath here, though this is typical for us when the wind turns easterly.
snowfall
Supercell
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Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:12 am

1mm so far and currently 10c. The rain started about an hour ago, but has stayed fairly light. Judging by the radar, there should be a few hours in it at least, with the heaviest falls in northern areas.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:02 pm

I think most of the forecast models overcooked this one. Probably not a bad thing tbh.
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Petros
Supercell
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Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:35 pm

3mm here from last evening, a cold day with a strong easterly wind. The updated models available for me right now show a range of 15-37mm more rain to come for Maffra. Another bullet dodged. Lake Glenmaggie releasing circa 5,000 ML/d today, at 94% full, probably wary of rain on snow.
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Didjman
Supercell
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:26 pm

7mm here so far
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Location: FTG
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Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:08 am

4mm b4 12pm
6mm after…
Had become dry between rains
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:29 am

Heavy rain overnight. Event total now 35mm.

EC has more forecast for later today.... Hmmmm.
stevco123
Supercell
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Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:38 am

15mm so far. Rain really intensified overnight
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Didjman
Supercell
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Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:03 am

12mm here so far
snowfall
Supercell
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Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:51 am

19mm here from almost continuous rain over a 13 hour stretch.

The ground is thoroughly saturated; it has been a real struggle trying to mow the grass lately due to bogginess but thankfully we managed to get it done before this latest rain. On the plus side, everything is beautifully green and it beats drought any time!
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Petros
Supercell
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Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:41 am

The strong cold easterly abated late last evening, followed by drizzly easterly showers for the remainder of the night, 7.5mm - takes us to 10.5mm so far.

This is what GFS reckons will happen as the cold front interacts:

Image

Flooding in Nth and N/E Vic will increase from minor to moderate levels by Saturday?
Wilko
Supercell
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Posts: 1438
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:43 am

9mm here which is at upper end of forecast
Possibility of some storms today. Hopefully the clouds lift for a sunny arvo :D
Amandagorural
Stratus
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Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:33 pm
Location: Bellarine Peninsula

Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:19 pm

11mm for the northern Bellarine. I accidentally left the tap on last week watering in some new vegies and emptied the tank :x so happy for as much rain as I can get.
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Pengaz
Cumulonimbus
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Posts: 270
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:04 pm
Location: Warragul

Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:38 pm

We got 7mm here mostly overnight from light rain. It was cold and windy from Tuesday night through to this morning. Surprised how warm and muggy it is now outside now that the breeze has died off.

Not much else to report weatherwise lately, we’ve missed out on most of the recent rain events as we get rainshadowed from the north and east. Think this has been lucky given the extremely wet August we had.

Looking wet again for us tonight and tomorrow.
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