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Inland Trough and Associated Pineapple Express: Oct 4-8

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:49 am

October kicks things off with a large incursion of tropical moisture from the North.

Most of Northern Victoria looks set to get a significant amount of rain if the forecast models are correct. It could cause riverine flooding.

Also, Lake Eppalock should hit 100% later today.
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Petros
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Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:46 pm

Latest GFS run shows you are on the money:

Image

Plenty for all areas of Vic. Possibly apart from the NW, most would like a week off?
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Supercellimpact
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:54 am

Wow, if this comes off some places are going to be in serious trouble.

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:55 am

Pretty Full here..
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Cass
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:08 am

I think you are right Supercellimpact looking at that chart.
We have had roads closed around here due to flooding, that have only just opened, think I need to stock up.
StratoBendigo
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:03 am

I'm thinking 30-50mm here this week. Maybe NE Vic could be the focus this time around?

Quite a lot of debate regarding the shallow water storages around Stanhope at present. Green Lake is only 14%, and Lake Cooper is still empty. Is G-M Water keeping them empty to use as airspace for when flooding is a risk?
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Petros
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Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:31 pm

Latest CMC shows the system on track, perhaps with a little less rain, but still very significant, especially for the Vic NE:

Image

Plenty of moisture arriving from both WA and QLD. Storms.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:35 am

This morning has ramped it up a little. Ensemble forecast suggests 60+ mm.

Generally that won't cause major problems, although 100mm+ in the catchments might cause grief as happened in January 2011.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:25 am

That said, inland NSW is likely to be in huge strife later this week. It'll be more an inland sea than anything...
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Petros
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:15 am

StratoBendigo wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:25 am That said, inland NSW is likely to be in huge strife later this week. It'll be more an inland sea than anything...
Yep. Even this lower intensity rain event for Vic will be the initial start of a multi-month flood event for most of our Nth regions as well.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:03 pm

Even the BOM which is usually pretty conservative are throwing out big numbers. i.e. 50% chance of 65mm all up.
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Petros
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:30 pm

Looks like I was wrong again on earlier post, the moisture for this event is likely to be IOD sourced? The present Aus Satellite WV image:

Image

For us in Nth Central Vic, latest runs from CMC and EC tally 39/30mm total by Sunday morning. Just shy of problematic. Some farmers around here have cut the first silage of the season (very early), and are hoping they can get it cured and wrapped by the rains of this event in a couple of days time. I'd say, storms are the biggest risk tomoz/Wed.
Gordon
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:32 pm

Off to a bad start here with 5 mm in 10 minutes from thunderstorms which weren't even forecast. More than quadruple 0-1mm forecast... hope that trend doesn't continue for the next few days :? .

In a - IOD, just wants to rain here at the slightest excuse.

Edit: 28mm in 30 mins 5km up the road!
QldTwister
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Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:29 pm

Some nice showers and thunderstorms in the SW today and a big week of weather for much of SE Aus ahead worst hit once again sadly NSW :(

Yeah so true re IODs and strong La Nina every cloud drops rain and you double forecast amounts and drought years strongest cloud band and infeed still nothing and you half forecast totals that be us in few years time :( :(

But big week once again for Vic, many rivers in North Vic will go back into Minor flooding some into Moderate flooding.
Sadly in NSW willl go Major flooding a looming disaster up there and only early October such widespread flooding even away from rivers be huge flooding.

Vic widespread 30 to 50mm again bar the far west more like 10-20mm there.
NE 50-80mm with Isol 120mm
South of Divide 15 -25mm with isol heavy falls espiocally with thunderstorms

Multiple storm days across the state this week too and Thurs/Thursday night best chance Melbourne maybe but still small
Coolness rolls on to some mid 20s days be nice but IODs always cool and wet

Another big week of weather this week terrible for NSW but just priming Vic for the big one get 100mm in NC NE Vic be big big flooding
Murray still rising up to 20-30cm a week atm and lots lots more to come.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:51 am

Watching this event unfold from the far south. Looks big, particularly for NSW and northern Vic which are tracking exceptionally wet. If this keeps up must be a chance for the wettest year on record for many of those areas :? Sydney is almost there, with lots of other places not far behind. Still a couple of months of negative IOD and a summer of La Niña to come.

Is interesting that a lot of commentary is about multiple systems, though it is more a single trough that gets blocked then gets mobile for a period then eventually cuts off and forms a east coast low somewhere near Bass Strait. The outcome is waves of rain and storms.

Tasmania looks more hit and miss. Initially northeasterly flow will drop heavier falls in the northeast, then the northerlies on the weekend will pile up on the northern half of the state. Not clear whether the cut off will be far enough west to fill in the southeast. Overall pattern continues what’s happened all year with unusually wet conditions in the east and northeast, but misses for the southwest.

For a bit of contrast a dusting of snow on Kunanyi this morning. This cold air supercharges the coming trough.
ollie
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Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:41 am

What are people's thoughts on Friday for North Central Vic I'm no expert but the way I read the charts another 20-40mm could come our way but weatherzone oand the BOM are only saying 1-5 mm.
Gordon
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Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:12 am

ollie wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:41 am What are people's thoughts on Friday for North Central Vic I'm no expert but the way I read the charts another 20-40mm could come our way but weatherzone oand the BOM are only saying 1-5 mm.
Forecasters are really struggling with the detail on this system, but I would say 1-5mm is optimistic (assuming you don't want flooding) for Kangaroo Flat on Friday.

WATL http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp this morning (average of computer models) has you down for 15-25mm.
StratoBendigo
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Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:30 am

Gordon wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:12 am
ollie wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:41 am What are people's thoughts on Friday for North Central Vic I'm no expert but the way I read the charts another 20-40mm could come our way but weatherzone oand the BOM are only saying 1-5 mm.
Forecasters are really struggling with the detail on this system, but I would say 1-5mm is optimistic (assuming you don't want flooding) for Kangaroo Flat on Friday.

WATL http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp this morning (average of computer models) has you down for 15-25mm.
It's looking like 25-35mm on Wednesday, and another 10-20mm Thursday, with 15-30mm on Friday. That's what the BOM are saying. Local creeks will be running a banker, or more.
ollie
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Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:13 am

Ok thanks that is what I was thinking if we get the high end of the forecast it will be super wet around here.
QldTwister
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Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:54 pm

Yeah big falls next 5 days on and north of the ranges east of Swan Hill to Ballarat
Easy 40 to 60mm with isol 80 to 100mm half that falling tomorrow then again Thursday night into Friday lots of flooding.

Almost every river in N Vic is in a Flood Watch for coming days, expect many Minor to Moderate flood warnings later this week

Wet Wet Wet

Melb light to mod rain at times Wed and Friday

Possible bigger event next week what a pattern we in classic IOD
Bring on the heat and stroms
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