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Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

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Petros
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Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Petros »

At this stage, the next significant weather event will be a strong low pressure system traversing Eastward way down in the bight, but as it comes closer gets flung up into Vic due to the influence of a strong slow moving high over NZ?:

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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Petros »

Latest CMC run shows the high over NZ next week to become more N-S orientated, the approaching low might be a "slumper", and pass down SW of Tassie?:

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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Petros »

Latest CMC run keeps the catchment areas for the Ovens, King and Mitta Rivers saturated. And enough showers to keep things ticking along for our cropping areas if I'm reading the runes correctly:

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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by StratoBendigo »

CMC undercooks things IMO. I like what EC is spinning up. I think another 30mm is likely here.

That'll take the Loddon Valley storages to full/overflowing. Eppalock now about 74%, and every 25mm in its catchment is translating to about a 10% increase atm.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by QldTwister »

Its not looking as big as it was a few days ago, but still most will get 15 to 30mm over 4 days with more like 30 to 50mm for the NE and on and north facing slopes.

Def keep things wet welcome out west for the crops but not so much for the NE putting rivers back into minor to moderate flooding and keeping the mud and puddles wet and topped up lol.

Then looks like a break for a week or so afterwards so will see if its a temperoary lull or something longer lasting.

Had 3mm here today with the weak front keeping things damp

A wet Thursday to Saturday here with lots of showers moving through prob 20mm or so for the week but not really needed here.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Macedonian »

A couple of cold days on the way for me. Snow forecast to 800m tomorrow.
We had 40mm of rain in the last seven days, with an extra 4mm falling tonight so far.
Top of 9.5° today.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by StratoBendigo »

The next week looks to continue the below-average temps and above-average rain. Some divergence still in the forecast models - a lot will depend on how much moisture is drawn in.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by StratoBendigo »

A frosty -1 degC overnight. Back to winter!

Still on track 30mm or so, spread across several days starting Wednesday night.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Macedonian »

Winter indeed.
0.8° for me overnight and still only a bone numbing
5.8° now at 1.45pm
Yesterday's max was 7.1°
Mt Macedon is a hard place to live/love.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Car showed 9 this afternoon then a big spike to 10..

Left mid 30,s home to 6 deg….
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Macedonian »

Frosty as hell at my place this morning. Windy as well. Never a good combo. It dropped below zero before midnight but the north wind has brought the temp up a bit now.
Trentham had -5° overnight. Very low for spring.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by StratoBendigo »

Zero degrees here this morning. Nice sunny skies now, and then a week of cold and wet. 30-50mm possible.

Reminds me of the early 1990s.

Incidentally, we haven't hit 20c since 26th April. This is turning out to be one of the longest stretches of sub-20c we've ever had. It might challenge 2010 and even 1992 (digging into the archives)...

Update - 2010 was 152 days (May 3 - Oct 2), 1992 was 159 days (May 7 - Oct 13). Currently a 141 day stretch.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Petros »

Global warming, gotta love it.

A near frost here today, lovely sunny arvo with an unexpectedly fresh SE seabreeze in the arvo, ....unusual for this time of the year.

CMC latest shows an accumulated 60mm or so for the NW facing slopes of the eastern ranges. Minor flood at Echuca announced this arvo, will stay that way for ????
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by QldTwister »

Thats impressive SB had a few 20s in Melbourne alreday

Yeah all on track for light falls tonight 2 to 8mm for most, more in NE

2 strong fronts Fri and Sat with widespread showers, local hail and thunder, strong and gusty winds, chilly to
Heavy snow in the Alps 30-50cm Fri Sat which melt in coulpe weeks so add to all the flooding that be going on.

Many should see 10-20mm next few days and more so 20-30m on the ranges and north facing, then 50-100mm for the NE

Number rivers in NE Vic will go back into minor flood this weekend and more rain forecast next week :o :D

Over winter so cold this morning but have weeks of this cold and wet weather to go
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by StratoBendigo »

6mm overnight to kick things off. Low cloud locked in over us atm - something we've seen a lot of this year.

It's been a long winter, but not a particularly cold one (apart from the late-May to Mid-June outbreak). We might crack 20c at Equinox, ironically.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Blackee »

7mm here in Bayside. Quite a long period of light rain last night followed by another early hours of the morning. Wet few days coming up for many especially NE.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Petros »

1.5mm here early morning, light showers about now, calm overcast 18C here today.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by hillybilly »

-1C down in Howden on Tuesday morning. We can get frosts at any time, but still a nice one. Aus is lucky atm being a pocket of “cool” and wet thanks to La Niña, while the rest of the inhabited land ares just had their hottest three months on record. Our turn will come in a year or two :(

So far just a mm for the event but that will change today with strong warm air advection with rain racing in from the northeast. Could well be heavy in spots. Would be surprised to see the odd spot crack the ton down here.

Another cut off next week as this solid La Niña plus IOD sequence delivers.
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by Wilko »

I don’t think the rain totals will add up to much today with that rain racing thru this arvo
Hopefully we get a rumble or three :?
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Re: Vic - low pressure system to move from SW of Vic to impact us 16-18/9/22

Post by StratoBendigo »

Only just started raining here. A chilly 13c.

Horsham has had 6mm so far.
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