Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

[Gordon]

Further to Sean's post, best to start a new thread, with BOM on board from Tuesday: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

As usual, rainfall amounts and hits/ misses will no doubt be a thing, but good to see a new system/s so soon after the last one.

[StratoBendigo]

I'm not sure I want to comment after the last debacle/system. This will be one I observe, based on Satpics and radar...

[Sean]

Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle seems to apply where these troughs are concerned…

Currently, this system could be even better given the trough looks like it will extend further — and it looks warmer too.

But as we all know, it could shift by 400ks or disappear from the charts by tomorrow.

Unfortunately, we just don’t have the technical ability to pinpoint a storm down to the suburb it will form over days in advance.

[stevco123]

Seems BOM has learnt lessons from last week's failure and going for a realistic 40% chance of rain for tbe coming week.

Either that, or the work experience kids have gone home

[QldTwister]

Not looking as good for Melbourne but we have days of storms in the state from Tues to Saturday some will see 2 or 3 stroms others nothing all week.
Most will have a TS within 50ks or so most days not looking as high end just yet but sure that will change im sure

Just be excited 5 days in a row with TS on the forecast least there be great conection to watch and days of watching the sky and radar hoping
Active week Thurs Fri looking best around Melb, Tues good along Murray

Weaker uppers with this but hot humid and unstable for days, wind shifts, Sea breezes and ranges will be triggers this week.

Loving the warm sunny stromy weather how can you not so good.

So good to see a repeat so soon most years last week is all we get for the year La Nina why u not every year.

Enjoy it people even when we miss out most days lol

[dazrain]

It’s the type of Summer that puts evaporative cooling manufacturers out of business!

[hillybilly]

Progs look good this morning for those wanting rain. Details pretty variable across models and runs, so will be a bit hit and miss and progs will jump a bit more.

Starts developing from the north tomorrow then becomes widespread later in the week. Tas initially has weak trough but eventually the deeper trough and low will edge south. Might be another big rain event in the north and east,

[Tassiedave]

With the ashes test starting on Friday Hillybilly I hope Hobart is spared.

[StratoBendigo]

Seems BOM has learnt lessons from last week's failure and going for a realistic 40% chance of rain for tbe coming week.

Either that, or the work experience kids have gone home

The BOM have learnt their lessons....

Most of the forecast models are throwing out stupid totals. OCF ensemble is completely out of whack. Ignore atm.

A hot 35c expected today. And our A/C is broken.

[StratoBendigo]

I observe a trough and cloud-band moving across from South Australia on the Satpic. No rain under it though.

[Tassiedave]

Temps today: Launceston 25.9, Hobart 15.9

[Petros]

At this stage, the conditions over Vic later this week seem to produce a "heat low" over Central Vic, keeping the good times rolling and advecting more moisture/cyclone remnants in from the NE.

There is no such thing as a heat low in terms of Vic's weather as far as I know, so I'm happy for this phenomena, should it pan out, to be called a Petrosheatuslowus. Such a feature would only be observed mid Summer, in Vic, and only in a La Nina year.

There will be a better official name for the formation of a low over Vic under the circumstances evident in the latest CMC run I'm sure. Only I haven't come across one that I can recall.

Latest CMC:




Shows potential for significant rain over near half of Vic - bring it on! (EC moots 50mm for my area), one to watch for sure.

[StratoBendigo]

Swan Hill just had 10mm. No idea what will happen this week.

[Wilko]

Petrosheatuslowus”Looking good for Friday

[Sean]

Thursday is looking good. EC is confident on wide spread storms, the other models less so.

All the ingredients are there, so expect a few surprises. Lots of tropical moisture coming into play. Depending on how this cyclone plays out, precip values could rocket over the southeast (and you know that means).

[stevco123]

Thursday is looking good. EC is confident on wide spread storms, the other models less so.

All the ingredients are there, so expect a few surprises. Lots of tropical moisture coming into play. Depending on how this cyclone plays out, precip values could rocket over the southeast (and you know that means).

A lot of overblown and optimistic forecasts showing 100-600mm of rain???

In all seriousness, looking better and better, but let's see how it plays out.

[Tassiedave]

Since 6 am Hobart's temperature has only varied by 1.9 degrees, between 14 and 15.9

[stevco123]

So much interference on the radar...

[StratoBendigo]

I observe there's an active Thunderstorm heading our way. Could be a bit in this one too...

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Radar is pretty…. Shocked to see.. as running to clothes line.

Having debates with Plumber who wants an extra down pipe put in,
Rain rates need to slow down as it will be in view, ideally not necessary used.

I think the new name for Heat Low just needs a # in front..

Good to see Bendigo guys getting a drink..