Yet Another Inland Low and Possible Deluge - Nov 18 to 21

[StratoBendigo]

Another possible deluge this weekend. EC is supper keen (gulp). GFS less so. With other forecast models saying "nope".
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/attachments/u ... if.241382/

[wobbie]

Let's gooo. I want all these dams 100%

[hillybilly]

Thanks for starting

Tomorrow looks thundery with part A. Not heavy falls but another chance for a rumble to get my attention. Been such a wet few weeks but distinct lack of proper spring storms.

Wet second half to the weekend.

[StratoBendigo]

Looks more like a Southern NSW and along the Murray River rain event now. Could end up a non-event which would be a good outcome for Vic.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Thanks for today, been too long between dry washing days….
Was very fresh this morning, now I see the light… blue with some white..

[Tassiedave]

Max temp in Tas today was Campania with 20.1 degrees. Launceston reached 18.7 and Hobart 18.5

[hillybilly]

Bit of a split between progs for today. EC is keen on a thundery outbreak. Not heavy falls but some ok ones. Sparks through central on a trough around mid arvo. GFS not much interested. Other models falling in different ways. Guess will know in about six hours.

Weekend system looks like mainly focussing in NSW and northern Vic now. Possible third low for about Tuesday

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like a non-event for 90% of Vic this weekend. Relieved to be honest.

[Skywalker]

Looks like a period of boredom coming up with a day of disgusting windy filth to kick things off.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Windy already.
Sky looked great with the first band coming through around 10.30,
Although there wasn’t much in it..

[James]

the pattern of the models once again saying a week ago armageddon was coming and severe storms today, and the day arrives and nothing!

it does it every time, yet everyone still gets worked up (referring to certain social media pages and mainstream media outlets)

[Petros]

Another possible deluge this weekend. EC is supper keen (gulp). GFS less so. With other forecast models saying "nope".
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/attachments/u ... if.241382/

Now its the opposite, GFS keen and EC holding it all up in NSW. But the other models predict a broadscale low to impact NSW/E Vic. Time will tell.

Feels very storm-like outside at the moment.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Not impressed with the wind considering this time of the day.
Although better now than full on summer.

[Gordon]

Not impressed with the wind considering this time of the day.
Although better now than full on summer.

Same here. I've decided strong wind is definitely my least-preferred form of extreme weather (with extreme heat coming a close second).

[Petros]

Latest model update available on WZ is CMC:



It currently thinks the low pressure system over NSW will travel ESE and head off to the Tasman via Narooma.

Plenty of time for things to change, I bet most in Vic can live with a dry week from today, definitely can here.

[hillybilly]

0.4mm and a heap of wind. Calling that one a dud. Not a nice day despite the late sun.

12mm at the place in Howden where it is still raining.

[snowfall]

A few spots of rain today but not enough to register in the gauge. Sure was windy at times, especially in the late afternoon. Definitely nowhere near the forecast for rain and it looks like a fairly lean weekend coming up.

Reached a max today of 23.5c, currently 14.4c.

[StratoBendigo]

Farmers are breathing a sigh of relief that the rain is staying away.

Southern NSW might still cop it though.

[hillybilly]

Scored 0.2mm of fog and drizzle overnight.

Looks like a mostly fine weekend. Possible chunky storm outbreak middle of next week. Looks like the best thundery system for a while, but too early to lock it in.

[hillybilly]

Fairly nice weekend coming up. Heavy falls to our north. EC has falls to over 100mm in parts of inland NSW and locally over 200mm. Could be big issues up there

Shaping up for a thundery outbreak here for Tuesday and Wednesday. Could be heavy falls.

6mm overnight and still raining at our new place in Howden.